When will this shit end?

[Chawk]

39 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Some EU countries have been appalling with their dismissive nature and lies about AZ. Macron in particular should be ashamed of himself.

Yep, it turned into a borderline smear campaign 

[Leyrulion]

1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Alternative reading: Germany didn't approve vaccine for an age group because there wasn't any trial evidence. Then approves vaccine for age group when there was trial evidence in that age group.

At some point in the near future there's going to need to be a conversation about what the German approach to risk was when approving these vaccines and why they took that approach. 

They were looking at the same data as the U.k. why did they decide not to approve for over 65s based on trial data but the u.k. did. They were being more conservative but that looks to not to have paid off, was it appropriate for them to be so cautious?

The different approaches countries have taken will be fascinating for how they shape health care policy in the future.

[stuartbert two hats]

32 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

At some point in the near future there's going to need to be a conversation about what the German approach to risk was when approving these vaccines and why they took that approach. 

They were looking at the same data as the U.k. why did they decide not to approve for over 65s based on trial data but the u.k. did. They were being more conservative but that looks to not to have paid off, was it appropriate for them to be so cautious?

The different approaches countries have taken will be fascinating for how they shape health care policy in the future.

They've seemed to follow a more conventional approach to risk when issuing guidance, whereas the UK seems to have taken a look at the balance of risk - after all, there's a pandemic on.

[SheffJeff]

10 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

Hey so I am not a medical expert. 

However the elements I do know based on what we've been taught as volunteer vaccinators is that it will be based on his capacity to consent. 

If he doesn't have the capacity to make decisions about his own health it will fall to someone responsible for him to make that decision. 

The example we've been given is in nursing homes. If an elderly person doesn't have capacity to consent and no family to give that their consent for them then a qualified health care professional can make a decision in their best interests that they should receive it.

The issue of consent and capacity is incredibly complex but they will have protocols in place. They'll have to consider the risks to him and the consequences of delay and the likelihood he may be able to consent in the near future.

So basically it's complicated.

 

4 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

https://www.nhs.uk/using-the-nhs/nhs-services/mental-health-services/mental-health-act/

Consent to treatment

If you're held under the Mental Health Act, you can be treated against your will.

This is because it's felt you do not have sufficient capacity to make an informed decision about your treatment at the time.

This is also the case if you refuse treatment but the team treating you believe you should have it.

The CQC provides detailed guidance about your rights in terms of consenting to medication and electroconvulsive therapy if you're detained in hospital or placed on a Community Treatment Order (CTO).

 

That would suggest you could be vaccinated against your will if the medics felt it necessary and you were judged unfit to give consent. On the other hand you could argue that only applies to treatment needed to deal with the mental disorder, so it's not really an answer! I've heard reports that people needing NHS treatment have been told they must be vaccinated before they can go in for treatment but I'm not sure how true that is. Would have thought they would have had to discuss any treatment with next of kin though.

Thank you both for replying, I think it's probably not googleable (not sure if that's a word) as it's such a grey area and as no two cases are the same there's no definitive answer. My minds just been wandering alot about it over the weekend and I was hoping someone would tell me what I wanted to hear, i.e. they'd just jab him. Don't want to add an extra worry to his mum so I'll just have to wait until I can visit and speak to one of his nurses. Having said that he probably can't have visitors given the current circumstances which will be really shit for my mate in his current state. Anyway, thanks again. 

[incident]

1 hour ago, Leyrulion said:

At some point in the near future there's going to need to be a conversation about what the German approach to risk was when approving these vaccines and why they took that approach. 

They were looking at the same data as the U.k. why did they decide not to approve for over 65s based on trial data but the u.k. did. They were being more conservative but that looks to not to have paid off, was it appropriate for them to be so cautious?

The different approaches countries have taken will be fascinating for how they shape health care policy in the future.

Both positions are justifiable to be honest. The data for over 65s wasn't as complete as it was for younger age groups, and so could be viewed either way.

Approximately speaking, as it was explained to me -

The data clearly showed that the vaccine was safe and provoked a strong immune response in all age groups.

The data clearly showed that the strong immune response equated to actual protection in the 18-65 group. However for 65+, there wasn't anywhere near enough data to prove (or disprove) this.

The UK & EMA position is that it was near certain that similar levels of protection in 65+ would also be present, because the immune response was - and so far the real world numbers we've seen appear to bear this out. However the health agencies in some places (most notably France and Germany) have taken the view that they want more complete real world data for over 65s before offering them the vaccine - which is perfectly fine, of course they should be able to judge for themselves how to proceed based on the standards they're working to.

The problem, more than anything else, has been clueless politicians talking shit. The French+German regulator decisions wouldn't be an issue and wouldn't have caused public confidence issues (both within and outside those countries) if their politicians had just stood back and let the medical people make the decision and explain the logic behind it.

[efcfanwirral]

I think there's definitely an argument that a delay is preferable to getting it wrong (from a regulator's point of view) - they've waited for the full data and acted on that

[balti-pie]

3 hours ago, SheffJeff said:

Niche question here so apologies but can't find anything on Google and I know there's alot of knowledgeable people on here. Does anyone know whether people who have been sectioned have been getting vaccinated? Got a friend who was supposed to get jabbed on Thursday but he went AWOL and is now in hospital. He's high risk (obese, diabetic, asthmatic) so I would have hoped he would be but not sure of the legal aspects of vaccinating someone against their will if they aren't in their right mind. He was over the moon to be vaccinated until Tuesday when for some reason he took a turn. I'm just worried as you hear about so many people catching Covid when they're in hospital. Thanks for any info in advance.

Hello, 

 

I work on a psych ward in the south east of england. As noted above, people who are detained under the mental health act are able to be given medication without their consent, though this is only mental health meds - a vaccine for a physical health issue, as this vaccine is, wouldn’t be able to be compelled. Besides the legal ramifications, when holding people down, we can only inject in the top of the buttocks, and this injection goes in the arm - and the logistics of holding someone down and injecting them on the arm don’t really work very easily. 
the latest that I have heard is that each acute ward is going to have an amount of vaccines to dole out to inpatients, but these havnt been sent out to my trust yet, and is still in the ‘things we’d like to do’ stage. 
I would imagine that we’ll make it part of regular ward rounds, engaging with the patient and seeing if they want the vaccine, and as soon as they do, we can undertake it. 
so hopefully your mate will be improving in presentation and insight, and as soon as they can be vaccinated, they will. Fingers crossed for em 👍🏻

[Leyrulion]

1 hour ago, incident said:

health agencies in some places... have taken the view that they want more complete real world data for over 65s before offering them the vaccine - which is perfectly fine, of course they should be able to judge for themselves how to proceed based on the standards they're working to.

This is the bit for me where there's interesting learning, they decided to wait for more real world data and it turned out they had no need to. They've waited an extra 6-8 weeks to be sure of something at a cost of lives. So are some of their assumptions on what standards of data is needed in these situations outdated now?

Now obviously they will say that there was always the chance that something could have gone wrong but was that being too risk averse?  They did their maths, and the U.K did it's maths and one appears at this stage to be better using vaccines to suppress the virus then the other. 

I just hope at some medical conferences in the next few years they're sharing the maths!

 

[Reckoner]

9 hours ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

This is where we in the UK are victims of our own scientific prowess. Every country in the world has mutations but we are the ones doing all the generic sequencing to notice them, all of which leads to fringe scientists whipping up scaremongering fear porn in order to drive longer lockdowns. Again, I’m sure the actual scientific leaders like Chris Whitty will be largely unconcerned. 

More a combination of one of the worlds best sequencing programs, especially capacity and unlimited cases to choose from due to such poor pandemic management. 

Maybe the variant porn wouldn’t be so strong if the government weren’t so quick to blame a new variant for the cases spiraling out of control instead of their own measures. They set the narrative the way the EU are now trying to unscramble their poor communication at start of the vaccines. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

6 hours ago, SheffJeff said:

 

Thank you both for replying, I think it's probably not googleable (not sure if that's a word) as it's such a grey area and as no two cases are the same there's no definitive answer. My minds just been wandering alot about it over the weekend and I was hoping someone would tell me what I wanted to hear, i.e. they'd just jab him. Don't want to add an extra worry to his mum so I'll just have to wait until I can visit and speak to one of his nurses. Having said that he probably can't have visitors given the current circumstances which will be really shit for my mate in his current state. Anyway, thanks again. 

I have no insights at all into your situation, but just wanted to say I'm really sorry to hear of it and that I hope your mate gets the help he needs.

[Zoo Music Girl]

3 hours ago, Gregfc15 said:

More a combination of one of the worlds best sequencing programs, especially capacity and unlimited cases to choose from due to such poor pandemic management. 

Maybe the variant porn wouldn’t be so strong if the government weren’t so quick to blame a new variant for the cases spiraling out of control instead of their own measures. They set the narrative the way the EU are now trying to unscramble their poor communication at start of the vaccines. 

Absolutely agree with your last point. The government leaned extremely heavily on the new variant being a risk when they wanted to change the Christmas plans, so much so that France temporarily closed its borders to lorries. So not really a surprise that each new one causes panic when the first one was framed in that way.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

3 hours ago, Gregfc15 said:

More a combination of one of the worlds best sequencing programs, especially capacity and unlimited cases to choose from due to such poor pandemic management. 

Maybe the variant porn wouldn’t be so strong if the government weren’t so quick to blame a new variant for the cases spiraling out of control instead of their own measures. They set the narrative the way the EU are now trying to unscramble their poor communication at start of the vaccines. 

The pandemic programme on TV the other day visually showed the prevalence of the new variant, and how it basically took off like mad from November, from virtually no cases and quickly became the completely dominant one to the point it was pretty much the only one circulating.

Whilst your points are correct and valid, the variant was a very real thing and very much behind how quickly cases spread. At the time I thought it was very suspicious that it suddenly popped up, but the actual evidence shows it was real, and a real contributor to cases getting out of hand.

[Ryan1984]

Zahawi back on the press rounds talking about the new variant... Blaming the individual for not filling in the contact details.

[gooner1990]

On 2/27/2021 at 6:42 PM, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

It’s just the nature of some of the jobs I’ve worked in. Don’t get me wrong, they’ve been well paying jobs but at the same time it’s made abundantly clear they’re not really ‘9-5’ jobs and if you treat them as such you won’t be around long. It’s just the the culture a lot of companies create.

I now don’t earn as much but instead of setting my alarm for 5am and sitting on a stinking train for hours, by 9am I’ve had a workout and given my dogs a nice long walk. Obviously Covid has been absolutely horrendous, but at the same time it’s certainly helped me align what’s important in life. 

I don't earn much either (£25k pa in Oxford) and it suits me better for a work/life balance. 

My Dad worked a high pressure job for Deloitte for 30 years, got cancer, had  to retire through ill health at 63 and died within 18 months of retirement aged 65...I looked at that and thought what's the point in not enjoying 30 years to save for a retirement that you ultimately may not get to enjoy.

Life is short! 🙂

[Reckoner]

21 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

The pandemic programme on TV the other day visually showed the prevalence of the new variant, and how it basically took off like mad from November, from virtually no cases and quickly became the completely dominant one to the point it was pretty much the only one circulating.

Whilst your points are correct and valid, the variant was a very real thing and very much behind how quickly cases spread. At the time I thought it was very suspicious that it suddenly popped up, but the actual evidence shows it was real, and a real contributor to cases getting out of hand.

Yep fair although I haven't seen it yet, and I didn't mean to downplay the role of the new variant in the spread, more that if it's used as the reason why cases got out of control, it's not surprising that there is a genuine fear of a new one popping up especially when there seems to be a finish line ahead. That's not to say there isn't also a responsibility for media and scientists to be measured in their reporting of each new one, but the attempt to blame the variant for the problems into xmas rather than a bit of self reflection of the management of things when it was obvious from September where things were headed have helped create the current climate. 

[Avalon_Fields]

12 hours ago, Chawk said:

You can still close borders to travellers whilst importing food tho- New Zealand still has food imports 🙂 

True. Looking at the figures:

UK imports 80% of our food

New Zealand imports 11.5%
 

So we have a 7 fold risk increase. I guess it’s vastly more than that, as theirs is mainly shipping and aviation, ours is 1000’s trucks per day. If we rely on lateral flow tests for incoming truck drivers they are of course far from 100% accurate. 

 

[Toilet Duck]

5 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

This is the bit for me where there's interesting learning, they decided to wait for more real world data and it turned out they had no need to. They've waited an extra 6-8 weeks to be sure of something at a cost of lives. So are some of their assumptions on what standards of data is needed in these situations outdated now?

Now obviously they will say that there was always the chance that something could have gone wrong but was that being too risk averse?  They did their maths, and the U.K did it's maths and one appears at this stage to be better using vaccines to suppress the virus then the other. 

I just hope at some medical conferences in the next few years they're sharing the maths!

 

I don’t know if it has cost more lives than other issues mind you...currently we have a 90:10 split in terms of doses, with 90% of them being Pfizer and these are still being administered. The lack of doses is a serious problem. The vaccination programmes all had to quickly pivot to administering a vaccine with completely different logistics when AZ failed to honour their contract (you can argue about how good the contract the EU drew up with them was, but the willingness to let AZ off the hook for underperforming for two consecutive quarters baffles me). The nonsense some politicians came out with compounded the problem, but just because AZ are amply supplying the UK, doesn’t mean they are doing a good job with the roll out of the Oxford vaccine, they’re not. Oxford did their bit, they designed an excellent vaccine, but the commercial part of the equation is a shambles. Here vaccination slots are booked and have to be cancelled when AZ deliver even less than the paltry amount they indicated they would, and do so with little or no notice (for example, last week’s delivery was cut by about 40% the night before it was due to arrive, with no explanation). I’m entirely confident in how the vaccine performs and have very little confidence in AZ to deliver it. Better to go with a supplier you can depend on and plan for stable supply.

[steviewevie]

43 minutes ago, Gregfc15 said:

Yep fair although I haven't seen it yet, and I didn't mean to downplay the role of the new variant in the spread, more that if it's used as the reason why cases got out of control, it's not surprising that there is a genuine fear of a new one popping up especially when there seems to be a finish line ahead. That's not to say there isn't also a responsibility for media and scientists to be measured in their reporting of each new one, but the attempt to blame the variant for the problems into xmas rather than a bit of self reflection of the management of things when it was obvious from September where things were headed have helped create the current climate. 

the kent variant was definitely a major factor why started spreading out of control in SE in December, and why govt had to do a u-turn on christmas plans and the subsequent srrict lockdown, and it has since become the dominant variant here. It is more infectious, and they think more deadly.

[steviewevie]

5 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

This is the bit for me where there's interesting learning, they decided to wait for more real world data and it turned out they had no need to. They've waited an extra 6-8 weeks to be sure of something at a cost of lives. So are some of their assumptions on what standards of data is needed in these situations outdated now?

Now obviously they will say that there was always the chance that something could have gone wrong but was that being too risk averse?  They did their maths, and the U.K did it's maths and one appears at this stage to be better using vaccines to suppress the virus then the other. 

I just hope at some medical conferences in the next few years they're sharing the maths!

 

they were being cautious because of lack of trial data, FDA in US has done the same...but also as ToiletDuck says if they're prioritising older people than they need to use pfizer for them because not enough AZ being supplied. Politicians have definitely said some stupid stuff about AZ vaccine though, especially Macron.

[squirrelarmy]

22 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

True. Looking at the figures:

UK imports 80% of our food

New Zealand imports 11.5%

New Zealand eats a lot of lamb and kiwi fruit. 

[zahidf]

 

[philipsteak]

2 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

New Zealand eats a lot of lamb and kiwi fruit. 

Lamb seemed pretty expensive when I lived there. I think because most of it was for export.

Kiwi fruit where ridiculously cheap in season. Some years they were pretty much giving them away.

[SheffJeff]

6 hours ago, balti-pie said:

Hello, 

 

I work on a psych ward in the south east of england. As noted above, people who are detained under the mental health act are able to be given medication without their consent, though this is only mental health meds - a vaccine for a physical health issue, as this vaccine is, wouldn’t be able to be compelled. Besides the legal ramifications, when holding people down, we can only inject in the top of the buttocks, and this injection goes in the arm - and the logistics of holding someone down and injecting them on the arm don’t really work very easily. 
the latest that I have heard is that each acute ward is going to have an amount of vaccines to dole out to inpatients, but these havnt been sent out to my trust yet, and is still in the ‘things we’d like to do’ stage. 
I would imagine that we’ll make it part of regular ward rounds, engaging with the patient and seeing if they want the vaccine, and as soon as they do, we can undertake it. 
so hopefully your mate will be improving in presentation and insight, and as soon as they can be vaccinated, they will. Fingers crossed for em 👍🏻

Thanks for the info, this thread never fails to deliver and although this isn't the info I was hoping for it is what I expected to be the case. Just feel so sorry for him as we celebrated his 10 year anniversary out of hospital last year and frustratingly I've seen his mental health deteriorate over the past month but been unable to do much about it. At this stage I'll just have to try to ignore the threat of Covid and hope it doesn't turn into a section 3. Thanks again for the informed response.

[Fuzzy Afro]

15 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

 

 

Still underpromising IMO. I expect 50m first doses by 11th May (Which is probably enough for everyone to have been offered given that the entire pool of vaccine candidates is 53m and it's unlikely we'll have more than 94% uptake across all groups)

 

Second doses should hit 15m by around 9th May (i.e. 12 weeks on from when the first doses hit 15m)

[st dan]

I think if we hit or exceed the current vaccine targets and the effectiveness is still as good as it appears to be now, then all restrictions will be gone by 1st June, and summer 2021 will be ‘saved’.