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Chrisp1986

When will this shit end?

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Complete guess on the little knowledge I have on the subject (been trying to avoid it as it can get a bit much) and guesswork. End of June. I think the situation will be a lot better by then but as the festival said they had to cancel as would have needed to start building now, which wasn't possible.

EDIT:  I think things will come back in drip and drabs though. I think Sport is likely to be one of the first based on it being outdoors. Indoor gigs and bars are probably going to be some of the last.

Edited by DareToDibble

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7 minutes ago, Dave85radiohead said:

If the restart of live music is your biggest concern right now you are in a very fortunate position

I think on a music festival message board it’s a legitimate question to ask. It doesn’t suggest the OP doesn’t give a shit about anything else.

Of course there are much bigger things to be worried about, but that doesn’t mean you can’t also miss live music.

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12 minutes ago, Barney McGrew said:

Not until there is a verified treatment or vaccine.

From what I understand, it's more likely that enough of us will have caught the virus for its ongoing impact to be minimal, before a vaccine is widely available. I agree with @jparx - about six months or so should see us right. Unless it mutates.

Edited by kalifire

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I'd say that we haven't even fully seen even the tip of the iceberg on this. The last I heard there was no evidence to say that once you caught it you are then immune (assuming you make it through). So, unless a vaccine is found, I'd say that this 'shit' is easily going to roll on in to next year. I'll be happy to be wrong on that perspective though.

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1 minute ago, kalifire said:

From what I understand, it's more likely that enough of us will have caught the virus for its ongoing impact to be minimal, before a vaccine is widely available. I agree with @jparx - about six months or so should see us right. Unless it mutates.

I'm not so sure, as it stands 'enough' of us having had it will potentially equate to 10's of 1000's of deaths but ultimately I know bugger all so fingers crossed!

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When they have a vaccine which is this time next year at the earliest. Glasto 2021 is under threat, put it that way.

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Trying to just sit on this for 12 months won’t be viable, not even close. Within three months I’d expect a return to some sort of ‘normality’ irrespective of what’s happening with the virus.

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4 minutes ago, The Nal said:

When they have a vaccine which is this time next year at the earliest. Glasto 2021 is under threat, put it that way.

You've started on next year's festival already. Gotta respect that.

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4 minutes ago, The Nal said:

When they have a vaccine which is this time next year at the earliest. Glasto 2021 is under threat, put it that way.

Nal, you're gettting far too upbeat: don't tell me 2022 is actually on??

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6 minutes ago, Yoghurt on a Stick said:

I'd say that we haven't even fully seen even the tip of the iceberg on this. The last I heard there was no evidence to say that once you caught it you are then immune (assuming you make it through). So, unless a vaccine is found, I'd say that this 'shit' is easily going to roll on in to next year. I'll be happy to be wrong on that perspective though.

The flip side to that is there is no evidence to suggest you can get it twice, other than a couple of spurious unsubstantiated reports.

Lets say you can get it twice, second time around it would be far less serious than the first. That is why the flu is not as dangerous as Covid-19, because we’ve built up years of immunity to it. If the Flu was brand new it would be doing the same thing as corona is.

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6 minutes ago, Yoghurt on a Stick said:

I'd say that we haven't even fully seen even the tip of the iceberg on this. The last I heard there was no evidence to say that once you caught it you are then immune (assuming you make it through). So, unless a vaccine is found, I'd say that this 'shit' is easily going to roll on in to next year. I'll be happy to be wrong on that perspective though.

The flip side to that is there is no evidence to suggest you can get it twice, other than a couple of spurious unsubstantiated reports.

Lets say you can get it twice, second time around it would be far less serious than the first. That is why the flu is not as dangerous as Covid-19, because we’ve built up years of immunity to it. If the Flu was brand new it would be doing the same thing as corona is.

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If we actually enforced a lockdown we could start getting back to normal in a few weeks. China had bars starting to re-open after a month: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/20/chinese-life-slowly-gets-back-to-normal-as-the-epidemic-subsides-coronavirus

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38 minutes ago, Dave85radiohead said:

If the restart of live music is your biggest concern right now you are in a very fortunate position

Nope, I am a pharmacist working on the frontline. Live music thoughts are what get me through my days of hell.

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I agree with Sir Robin. Boris along with the medics have taken too long. Lock this country down asap ffs to see any sign of a glimmer at the end of the tunnel.

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40 minutes ago, Dave85radiohead said:

If the restart of live music is your biggest concern right now you are in a very fortunate position

Nope, I am a pharmacist working on the frontline. Live music thoughts are what get me through my days of hell.

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12 minutes ago, Brave Sir Robin said:

If we actually enforced a lockdown we could start getting back to normal in a few weeks. China had bars starting to re-open after a month: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/20/chinese-life-slowly-gets-back-to-normal-as-the-epidemic-subsides-coronavirus

Perhaps, but it would have to be a police/army enforced lockdown for the whole of the UK (Far too many are ignoring current advice), that's what China did and perhaps where it isn't succeeding yet in Italy because people are still allowed to go outside, to shops, etc, plus all incoming people would need to go into a 14 day quarantine, which would have to continue until the world is effectively free from the virus. That being the case, very challenging to import any foodstuffs which we are very reliant on. 

Edited by Avalon_Fields

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I totally agree, full lockdown needed apart from supermarkets (limit customers) and pharmacies (one at a time). Not sure if it is being predicted but the company I work for have issued every pharmacy with a buzzer to put outside in case we get to that situation. People will need to buzz to get in.

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36 minutes ago, kalifire said:

From what I understand, it's more likely that enough of us will have caught the virus for its ongoing impact to be minimal, before a vaccine is widely available. I agree with @jparx - about six months or so should see us right. Unless it mutates.

You sound like you’ve been listening to the ‘herd immunity’ stuff. Allowing people to catch it guarantees thousands (at least) dead, and its highly speculative as to whether the survivors would be any better off than we are now.

5 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

Perhaps, but it would have to be a police/army enforced lockdown for the whole of the UK (Far too many are ignoring current advice), that's what China did and perhaps where it isn't succeeding yet in Italy because people are still allowed to go outside, to shops, etc, plus all incoming people would need to go into a 14 day quarantine, which would have to continue until the world is effectively free from the virus. 

Agreed. It would require a big ramp-up in measures which our govt shows no appetite for (at the moment at least). I wasn’t suggesting it is actually likely any time soon.

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7 minutes ago, Brave Sir Robin said:

You sound like you’ve been listening to the ‘herd immunity’ stuff. Allowing people to catch it guarantees thousands (at least) dead, and its highly speculative as to whether the survivors would be any better off than we are now.

I suppose so. I've not yet heard any alternative, though. What good is a complete lock down if the vaccine is 18 months away? Or are you suggesting an 18 month lock down? That would be absolutely catastrophic for a huge part of the country.

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Short answer - eventually

Long answer - Depends on where we go with this. March-May are clearly a write-off, and June is likelier going to follow, even if a few events currently scheduled for then are still go. If we're lucky, maybe late July or August, but no point having that set in stone. This is going to be a difficult situation where many things are elevated in priority and I don't think its something that can be rushed lest it gives way to a relapse. We can only be patient. 

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