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stuartbert two hats

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Everything posted by stuartbert two hats

  1. Sorry, I still don't get it. I know it's not your quote, but do you believe "Leave it much later and you pretty much will need to lockdown until March 2022 " If so, why?
  2. I'm not discussing whether we should have restrictions past July 19th (FWIW, I think probably not), I'm asking what basis is that there's some kind of "window" where if we haven't lifted everything by a certain date, then we'll be forced to maintain restrictions for several further months. Why would having restrictions in September mean we'd be stuck with them until spring? How does lifting restrictions in July put us in a better position to cope with winter?
  3. I find this idea really unconvincing. The effect of increasing vaccination is surely more powerful than any seasonal effects? It's not as if the immunity gained by catching the virus can be spread faster than vaccinations can be administered. So then if we did lockdown* until September, the main effect would be to keep cases numbers down, which would make it easier to go through winter without restrictions, as doubling a tiny number still gives you a small number, so we'd have more headroom for exponential growth - not that I'd expect much. Are there any credible articles by scientis
  4. He could just not sign the consent form. They're not going to vaccinate without the parents' permission.
  5. My typo should have read 16 rather than 06. 2007 was the worst of the lot, and I've been to every bad one since 1997 apart from 2011. 2007 was hard.
  6. Easier to get around than 97/06 because the mud was that much wetter, so less sticky.
  7. When it offers to load new posts without refreshing the page, the it will load in posters you have on ignore.
  8. Each tweet is also 280 characters. I was never confused as to what his point was. He's mentioned several times about the relationship being changed, but still a relationship. He's been perfectly responsible. EDIT: And I'd love to see where you're getting that definition of Twitter from.
  9. Thanks, but I'll wait for a proper news organisation to pick it up.
  10. The faster we can jab though, the more lives are saved, it's not just about being to reopen.
  11. We have five weeks to get to that point on immunity alone. Given that I suspect the last step was bigger than the next one, we might actually be in with a chance, especially as we've just started jabbing the most social part of the population with the best immune systems and the fastest vaccine. It would be really great if we suddenly started jabbing Novavax, but it's probably too late.
  12. But it's kind of right that a population only has so much space in it for growth. Given this is a second or third wave in a population that's increasingly vaccinated, it's not surprising that exponential growth is proving hard to maintain. So in a strict sense, CF is right - but there's nothing gloomy about it and it's not what would happen in an immunologically naΓ―ve population.
  13. Very true, although normally when there's a directional change over 3-4 days like this, in several boroughs at the same time, it usually shows up in the weekly figures. I'm going to predict most of Manchester will be green within about 10 days, probably sooner.
  14. Well, that's true, but the rises are also slowing in absolute terms.
  15. That's the pattern in Greater Manchester too. Another day with decreasing increases pretty much across the board and actual daily drops in four areas, including a sizable decrease in the home of Blossoms.
  16. Good. Last time I checked, the levels were shockingly low for people working in such a position.
  17. Seriously though, I'm with you on the "broken" term just being really unhelpful in this context. Let's not use it.
  18. No. Therefore, I don't follow your analogy πŸ˜‹ Seriously though, although an arm is still attached after its been broken (mainly because it's actually your bone that breaks, which is surrounded by fleshy stuff), you can't still lift 1/3 of the same weights. With a broken arm*, you can't really lift anything. If you're climbing a tree and the branch breaks, you don't expect the branch to be able to carry weight that's 1/3 of your body weight - it's broken. EDIT: I've just re-read John Burn-Murdoch's tweet back and it looks like the relationship has only been reduced to 1/
  19. That's really not what anyone would reasonably expect "broken" to mean. Broken means there isn't a link anymore, not that there's still a link, it's just 3x smaller.
  20. The guy we all seem to agree with makes much the same analysis as the hive mind on this forum:
  21. Hotter than hottest: Yes you do πŸ˜› (couldn't resist πŸ™‚ )
  22. Hotter take: you can think the restrictions are wrong without spending every day taking pot shots at scientists, repeating "enough is enough" over and over again and most importantly, supporting civil unrest.
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