When will this shit end?

[Chapple12345]

3 minutes ago, thewayiam said:

Easily 4 weeks I'd say. But by that time July festivals are basically done and August festivals need to be sure. I think the put back by 4 weeks will effectively cancel the festival season all bar maybe Reading and Creamfields.

It will all depend on how they leave it, if the 19th July is a guaranteed cut off point they'll plough ahead I reckon but if its an assessment of the data by that point I don't think as many would risk it 

[hodgey123]

2 minutes ago, thewayiam said:

Exactly this. The full opening would stop people who don't want it having it, essentially thinking we've pushed and pushed and got away with it.

You think I'm reveling in the bad news? clearly not seen any of my recent weeks posts. I have stuff booked, I have uncertainty surrounding them. It's doing my head in. The post is just stating data released.

If that's how you feel then fair enough and I take it back, I just tend to only see your name pop up when there are some bad stats released (although I accept that that has been pretty common recently).

[duke88]

3 hours ago, steviewevie said:

The parkrun start on 26th won't be able to happen either, unless they relax the rules on outdoor stuff.

They can legally - they were meant to start earlier. The government had agreed a framework for them to operate, regardless of whether or not we went to the next stage.

[efcfanwirral]

3 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

It will all depend on how they leave it, if the 19th July is a guaranteed cut off point they'll plough ahead I reckon but if its an assessment of the data by that point I don't think as many would risk it 

There are still a few in September but yes the summer will be gone

I've got to be honest- I got courteeners tickets for end of September today, and I have no real expectation of it happening. I've completely written off y not 

70,000 mass gathering in 2021 just sounds more and more fanciful the more time goes on 

Edited June 11, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[thewayiam]

Just now, found home in 2009 said:

Obviously horrible news for the loved ones they leave behind who's pain I don't wish to diminish.

 

But considering we have a population of 66 million, 17 seems a miniscule number. I'd love to know for comparison how many people died of cancer this week.

Cancer is that one isn't it. It's a horrible horrible disease, the worst. I think the unfortunate thing here is though, and I don't mean it in any harsh way but, while cancer spreads around the body of the unfortunate, covid spreads arounds anyone and can be stopped while knowing it's out there if it makes sense. Cancer can obviously be fought by not smoking etc but in the grand scheme if you get it you are just bloody unlucky.

I don't like to compare really but in a way, cancer isn't affecting the economy etc like covid is. Again I don't mean that badly, just pointing out some observations. I don't wish either on anyone.

[steviewevie]

So...not great, but not a disaster either, and maybe we're looking at 2 to 4 week delay and that's it?

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, Euphoricape said:

I live 2 minutes away from the eden project. Just found out on the news that the G7 leaders are meeting there in a couple of hours and will be joined by Prince Charles and the bloody Queen..! If I pop down there later is there any questions anyone would like me to ask the most important people in the world..? 

Ask about the reptilians?

[thewayiam]

7 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

It will all depend on how they leave it, if the 19th July is a guaranteed cut off point they'll plough ahead I reckon but if its an assessment of the data by that point I don't think as many would risk it 

I don't think they can do that. I think it'll be a 4 weeks delay subject to review. That will kill off the summer.

6 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

If that's how you feel then fair enough and I take it back, I just tend to only see your name pop up when there are some bad stats released (although I accept that that has been pretty common recently).

You know people post the stats on this board everyday

4 minutes ago, duke88 said:

They can legally - they were meant to start earlier. The government had agreed a framework for them to operate, regardless of whether or not we went to the next stage.

Aye. Parkrun isn't going to be a 'mass' gathering. And I can guarantee at this moment I will me 2 meters distance at the back haha

5 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

There are still a few in September but yes the summer will be gone

I've got to be honest- I got courteeners tickets for end of September today, and I have no real expectation of it happening. I've completely written off y not 

70,000 mass gathering in 2021 just sounds more and more fanciful the more time goes on 

Aye I've not bought Catfish for Wales yet as I just don't see it as a guarantee for September 4th.

[kalifire]

4 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

Its one more once in a life time thing she has too miss.  How many more?  Just another few more weeks.....  

Tough when public health advice confronts your sense of entitlement, huh? 

[Rex2]

As has previously been said. A delay will lead to the cancellation of weddings, festivals and the best part of the year for many people for another year, which won't just affect people psychologically, but also in terms of finances. From me it's a strong no to shifting the goalposts and delaying the reopening 

[efcfanwirral]

25 minutes ago, thewayiam said:

Aye I've not bought Catfish for Wales yet as I just don't see it as a guarantee for September 4th.

Knew it was going to sell out today whenever it takes place so figured I'd want to be there even if it moves! 

[philipsteak]

11 minutes ago, kalifire said:

Tough when public health advice confronts your sense of entitlement, huh? 

Nope. That's not on. I know Barry can be a bit of a tool, but it's his daughter who is the one missing out. Like so many children have missed out on so much. Milestones especially are so important. Don't have kids myself but the ones I know have mostly been great. But give them a break. 

[Pinhead]

Supposed to be doing BD with the kids - their 1st festi - tho an extension may put pay to even their seemingly boundless optimism about going ahead...

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Pinhead said:

Supposed to be doing BD with the kids - their 1st festi - tho an extension may put pay to even their seemingly boundless optimism about going ahead...

im still hoping that it can be done with testing/ passports ..... very squeaky bum time for that with any delay .... 2  weeks might still be a goer ... 

[jimmillen]

5 minutes ago, Rex2 said:

As has previously been said. A delay will lead to the cancellation of weddings, festivals and the best part of the year for many people for another year, which won't just affect people psychologically, but also in terms of finances. From me it's a strong no to shifting the goalposts and delaying the reopening 

OK, say we were to fully reopen as planned on the 21st. Keeping it simple, there's two potential outcomes:

In the optimistic scenario, we get away with it. Cases rise but hospitalisations and deaths stay below a manageable level. The NHS can cope. Businesses go back to normal and everyone's happy. 

In the negative scenario, we don't get away with it. Cases rise and while the rate of hospitalisations & deaths is lower than in previous waves thanks to the vaccines, it's still enough to put enormous pressure on the NHS. Restrictions have to be re-imposed, businesses which had reopened have to shut again. Johnson's reputation is damaged having gone back on his promise to make the easing of restrictions irreversible.

There are a lot of downsides to option 2, clearly. So if you're prepared to risk it, you'd better be very, very confident of the data to say actually no, there's only a 1 in 100 chance of this outcome happening. Especially when the negative consequences of not reopening fully for another 2-4 weeks are so very much less.

As has been pointed out at great length already on this thread, the data just isn't solid enough yet to judge. It might indeed be a 1 in 100 chance - that would be great. But it could instead be 1 in 5, or even worse, We just don't know yet!

The government's formal line has always been data not dates. Admittedly in their informal briefings they've implied otherwise to the media which absolutely hasn't helped the situation. But there is no moving of goalposts here if the data doesn't give us the assurance we need to reopen.

[mike46]

It’s not all bad news out there! 

[jimmillen]

1 minute ago, mike46 said:

It’s not all bad news out there! 

I suspect that's got a lot more to do with tax avoidance than reality. But still, you love to see it.

[Rex2]

3 minutes ago, jimmillen said:

OK, say we were to fully reopen as planned on the 21st. Keeping it simple, there's two potential outcomes:

In the optimistic scenario, we get away with it. Cases rise but hospitalisations and deaths stay below a manageable level. The NHS can cope. Businesses go back to normal and everyone's happy. 

In the negative scenario, we don't get away with it. Cases rise and while the rate of hospitalisations & deaths is lower than in previous waves thanks to the vaccines, it's still enough to put enormous pressure on the NHS. Restrictions have to be re-imposed, businesses which had reopened have to shut again. Johnson's reputation is damaged having gone back on his promise to make the easing of restrictions irreversible.

There are a lot of downsides to option 2, clearly. So if you're prepared to risk it, you'd better be very, very confident of the data to say actually no, there's only a 1 in 100 chance of this outcome happening. Especially when the negative consequences of not reopening fully for another 2-4 weeks are so very much less.

As has been pointed out at great length already on this thread, the data just isn't solid enough yet to judge. It might indeed be a 1 in 100 chance - that would be great. But it could instead be 1 in 5, or even worse, We just don't know yet!

The government's formal line has always been data not dates. Admittedly in their informal briefings they've implied otherwise to the media which absolutely hasn't helped the situation. But there is no moving of goalposts here if the data doesn't give us the assurance we need to reopen.

We've got to do it at some point. The NHS is nowhere near full capacity. There are now many studies proving the vaccines significantly reduce hospitalisations. Where is the risk? Better now than in 3 months when the NHS is at risk of being overwhelmed as admissions rise anyway. Also, by your metric, will it be safe to open in 3 months when the most vulnerables protection from the vaccine might be wearing off. As you say, we just don't know. 

[steviewevie]

15 minutes ago, philipsteak said:

Nope. That's not on. I know Barry can be a bit of a tool, but it's his daughter who is the one missing out. Like so many children have missed out on so much. Milestones especially are so important. Don't have kids myself but the ones I know have mostly been great. But give them a break. 

maybe govt could allow these end of year school parties? Along with weddings maybe? I think Johnson will want to have something positive to say on Monday...

But then again, kids don't vote.

[kalifire]

21 minutes ago, philipsteak said:

Nope. That's not on. I know Barry can be a bit of a tool, but it's his daughter who is the one missing out. Like so many children have missed out on so much. Milestones especially are so important. Don't have kids myself but the ones I know have mostly been great. But give them a break. 

So how come minority views get a pass when every other parent has had to go the same issue? I don’t underestimate how difficult it must be to miss out on something important and I feel for him as a father, but there are no special cases here. This is the reality of the virus. 

Edited June 11, 2021 by kalifire

[Punksnotdead]

17 minutes ago, mike46 said:

It’s not all bad news out there! 

Surprised they didn't have a spike in sales when we had the bog roll shortages last year. 😄

[zahidf]

13 minutes ago, kalifire said:

So how come minority views get a pass when every other parent has had to go the same issue? I don’t underestimate how difficult it must be to miss out on something important and I feel for him as a father, but there are no special cases here. This is the reality of the virus. 

He can be a bit much sometimes, but saying June 21st should go ahead isn't a minority view.

And it's fine to be upset if one of your kids is missing out on something because of the extension.

[Pinhead]

25 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

im still hoping that it can be done with testing/ passports ..... very squeaky bum time for that with any delay .... 2  weeks might still be a goer ... 

Was looking at Green Gathering as well as a mate is doing it, but thats end of July I think so any delay removes their build month basically...

[andyrhodes24]

Don’t read The Sun but 

 

[Chapple12345]

4 minutes ago, andyrhodes24 said:

Don’t read The Sun but 

 

I think this is actually an okay compromise, how many additional vaccinations would we expect in this period after the huge demand the other day?