When will this shit end?

[Euphoricape]

I live 2 minutes away from the eden project. Just found out on the news that the G7 leaders are meeting there in a couple of hours and will be joined by Prince Charles and the bloody Queen..! If I pop down there later is there any questions anyone would like me to ask the most important people in the world..? 

[JoeyT]

6 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

I live 2 minutes away from the eden project. Just found out on the news that the G7 leaders are meeting there in a couple of hours and will be joined by Prince Charles and the bloody Queen..! If I pop down there later is there any questions anyone would like me to ask the most important people in the world..? 

Is it coming home?

[stuartbert two hats]

9 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

I live 2 minutes away from the eden project. Just found out on the news that the G7 leaders are meeting there in a couple of hours and will be joined by Prince Charles and the bloody Queen..! If I pop down there later is there any questions anyone would like me to ask the most important people in the world..? 

You can ask me on here if you like.

[Crazyfool01]

8 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

I live 2 minutes away from the eden project. Just found out on the news that the G7 leaders are meeting there in a couple of hours and will be joined by Prince Charles and the bloody Queen..! If I pop down there later is there any questions anyone would like me to ask the most important people in the world..? 

When will this shit end surely ? Or do they read the shit thread on efests ? 

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

10 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

I live 2 minutes away from the eden project. Just found out on the news that the G7 leaders are meeting there in a couple of hours and will be joined by Prince Charles and the bloody Queen..! If I pop down there later is there any questions anyone would like me to ask the most important people in the world..? 

Wow. Prince and Queen, live at the Eden Project. What a double-header

[Euphoricape]

15 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

When will this shit end surely ? Or do they read the shit thread on efests ? 

I will shout it through a megaphone 📣 when the helicopters go over. Hopefully we will finally get the answer after 3547 pages.

[thewayiam]

17 new deaths and 8,125 new cases. Mondays announcement isn't going to go how many want.

[JoeyT]

Just now, thewayiam said:

17 new deaths and 8,125 new cases. Mondays announcement isn't going to go how many want.

A small positive to take is the the growth rate does seem to be slowing.

Silver clouds and all that...

[Ozanne]

Cases continue to rise, it’s not a great sign. 

Edited June 11, 2021 by Ozanne

[Ozanne]

173 people admitted to hospital with COVID-19 on 7th June, the highest since 19th April. 

[thewayiam]

Just now, JoeyT said:

A small positive to take is the the growth rate does seem to be slowing.

Silver clouds and all that...

The bigger cloud is that not enough people over 30 have taken the vaccine chance and they need to get everyone now with these variants and mutations about done. With nice weather people are just out everywhere.

Following Monday July is going to hit a shit storm all over. I think you've got no chance of getting 50% in Wembley for the semi finals and final. I don't believe it's been confirmed they can

 

[Toilet Duck]

18 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yep, much better way of looking at it then I initially did.

So, the only word of caution (I'm a scientist, so I'm supposed to be a nerd, poindexter type who doesn't like fun)...ergo...the trends do look good at the moment in terms of how the vaccines are performing, but the lag between deaths and cases doesn't really mean that 12/28,917 died, that's the total number cases now (with available vaccination status), but the deaths from those cases could still rise over the next few weeks (need more time to see basically). They'd need to rise nearly 30 fold though to get us back to the CFR we observed prior to the vaccination programme (about 2.8% overall) and in the first PHE update, there were 17 deaths from just over 12,000 cases (0.15% or thereabouts) and in this one there were 42 deaths from just over 42,000 cases (<0.1%), so the trend looks good in that it isn't rising (yet?) and it's way below where it was. If you want to take the low risk people out of the equation, as above, 12/1785 (just under 0.7%) likely older, high risk (since they were double jabbed) is way better than we saw before vaccination (CFRs for older, high risk individuals were above 10%, nearly 20% for older men with certain co-morbidities and in a more extreme example, time adjusted CFRs for over 80s in Chile were over 50%!). What we need here are the time-adjusted CFRs (and we need time for that!)...calling it on two time points with limited data would be a bit reckless (and nature loves to make a fool of us), but I'm optimistic (though that may not be reassuring as I more or less always am!)...(and the other word of caution is that death isn't the only metric that matters of course). 

[Ozanne]

Vaccination update. Should I add 2nd doses to the graph?

[thewayiam]

8 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Cases continue to rise, it’s not a great sign. 

 

6 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

173 people admitted to hospital with COVID-19 on 7th June, the highest since 19th April. 

Nope and we are heading into Mondays announcement off the back of two sets of 153 and a 170 in admissions in the last 8 days plus the highest deaths for quite a while and. 

[stuartbert two hats]

10 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Cases continue to rise, it’s not a great sign. 

 

10 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

A small positive to take is the the growth rate does seem to be slowing.

Silver clouds and all that...

When we look at the numbers for the next couple of weeks, case numbers are going to go up - there's almost no doubt about that. But if the rate of growth is slowing, then we might just get out of this wave without too much death.

If Bolton was actually repeated everywhere, then we could get through this thing without too much difficulty. It's if Bolton's recent* heights become dwarfed by cases many times greater that we could have a problem.

If growth is slowing already, as it looks like it could be in G.Manchester then it seems unlikely to end up with really high cases numbers that could cause serious issues, like 1000+ numbers would but us into "small proportion of huge number is still big number" territory.  But if it's just "small proportion of largeish number", then we'll still be on smallish numbers in hospital.

And short of an actual mathematical model, my gut says that delaying another month will stop the virus from being able to get properly massive.

As of now it's winning the race, we don't want to give it a big speed bump just as things look like they might turn back our way.

[stuartbert two hats]

12 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Vaccination update. Should I add 2nd doses to the graph?

They're already on the graph aren't they? The only thing we're missing is second dose weekly change on the table.

[Chapple12345]

22 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

A small positive to take is the the growth rate does seem to be slowing.

Silver clouds and all that...

 

You'd be right, if this is the case any extention should hopefully be the minimum whilst we jab more people  

[MrBarry465]

3 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

 

When we look at the numbers for the next couple of weeks, case numbers are going to go up - there's almost no doubt about that. But if the rate of growth is slowing, then we might just get out of this wave without too much death.

If Bolton was actually repeated everywhere, then we could get through this thing without too much difficulty. It's if Bolton's recent* heights become dwarfed by cases many times greater that we could have a problem.

If growth is slowing already, as it looks like it could be in G.Manchester then it seems unlikely to end up with really high cases numbers that could cause serious issues, like 1000+ numbers would but us into "small proportion of huge number is still big number" territory.  But if it's just "small proportion of largeish number", then we'll still be on smallish numbers in hospital.

And short of an actual mathematical model, my gut says that delaying another month will stop the virus from being able to get properly massive.

As of now it's winning the race, we don't want to give it a big speed bump just as things look like they might turn back our way.

 

They've said since day dot that the reopening plan would be done in such a way that we do not have to go backwards. By that logic they will definetly push June 21st back at least 3-4 weeks to ensure we don't shoot ourselves in the foot.

Like I've said, slowing the release out of lockdown is much more preferable to going mental for a few weeks and then trying to rollback.

[MrBarry465]

21 minutes ago, thewayiam said:

The bigger cloud is that not enough people over 30 have taken the vaccine chance and they need to get everyone now with these variants and mutations about done. With nice weather people are just out everywhere.

Following Monday July is going to hit a shit storm all over. I think you've got no chance of getting 50% in Wembley for the semi finals and final. I don't believe it's been confirmed they can

 

Is that true? I thought uptake of people over 30 has been good - or is it just that not enough have had a chance?

[Crazyfool01]

Would a full opening also cause a drop off in the numbers of people taking the jab ? Thinking that we are back to normal so there is no need 

[hodgey123]

37 minutes ago, thewayiam said:

17 new deaths and 8,125 new cases. Mondays announcement isn't going to go how many want.

Swear all you do is come in here to try and revel in the bad news when I'd say the majority of people in this thread have accepted that a delay is pretty inevitable if not relatively sensible?

[thewayiam]

10 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

 

They've said since day dot that the reopening plan would be done in such a way that we do not have to go backwards. By that logic they will definetly push June 21st back at least 3-4 weeks to ensure we don't shoot ourselves in the foot.

Like I've said, slowing the release out of lockdown is much more preferable to going mental for a few weeks and then trying to rollback.

Easily 4 weeks I'd say. But by that time July festivals are basically done and August festivals need to be sure. I think the put back by 4 weeks will effectively cancel the festival season all bar maybe Reading and Creamfields.

[thewayiam]

2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Would a full opening also cause a drop off in the numbers of people taking the jab ? Thinking that we are back to normal so there is no need 

Exactly this. The full opening would stop people who don't want it having it, essentially thinking we've pushed and pushed and got away with it.

1 minute ago, hodgey123 said:

Swear all you do is come in here to try and revel in the bad news when I'd say the majority of people in this thread have accepted that a delay is pretty inevitable if not relatively sensible?

You think I'm reveling in the bad news? clearly not seen any of my recent weeks posts. I have stuff booked, I have uncertainty surrounding them. It's doing my head in. The post is just stating data released.

[found home in 2009]

38 minutes ago, thewayiam said:

17 new deaths and 8,125 new cases. Mondays announcement isn't going to go how many want.

Obviously horrible news for the loved ones they leave behind who's pain I don't wish to diminish.

 

But considering we have a population of 66 million, 17 seems a miniscule number. I'd love to know for comparison how many people died of cancer this week.

[thewayiam]

14 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

Is that true? I thought uptake of people over 30 has been good - or is it just that not enough have had a chance?

They are doing over 18s now, I thin it's fair to say that they've had a chance.