When will this shit end?

[kalifire]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

People aren’t stupid

Spotted a flaw in your argument. 

[fraybentos1]

More people in that poll want masks kept on public transport than the amount I currently see wearing them correctly on public transport right now ... 

[Matt42]

1 minute ago, kalifire said:

Spotted a flaw in your argument. 

You’re not helping the argument that left leaning people see the general public as too stupid to look after themselves and need the state to control their lives.

All we can do is give people everything they need. I understand the frustration that some people may take all of this and still think “nah, cba with the vaccine”. It’s very frustrating but we have to respect their choice.

[Matt42]

Just now, fraybentos1 said:

More people in that poll want masks kept on public transport than the amount I currently see wearing them correctly on public transport right now ... 

yeah honestly take the tube in London. It’s about 50% uptake at the minute.

[gooner1990]

Masks vs No Masks its going to be like Brexiteer vs Remainer all over again.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Silly mitigations like keeping masks compulsory will achieve nothing. Even under the current restrictions we are on track for a massive exit wave.

 

Let me make this absolutely clear, it’s a straight choice between an exit wave or reimposing lockdown. That exit wave happens whether you stay as well are now, relax partially or relax fully. So it makes absolutely no sense to delay reopening or keep minor mitigations.

 

The only two positions that make sense at all are to reimpose lockdown (or at least stage 2 restrictions) to get the R below 1 and suppress this wave, or reopen fully and go for herd immunity. 

but how big an exit wave? it can be reduced with mitigations and/or with higher immunity?

[gooner1990]

Just now, fraybentos1 said:

More people in that poll want masks kept on public transport than the amount I currently see wearing them correctly on public transport right now ... 

There were already people not wearing them on my bus into Oxford this morning! 

Yes they may be exempt etc but a couple of them I recognise as regular commuters and were wearing them yesterday.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

yeah honestly take the tube in London. It’s about 50% uptake at the minute.

52/48?

[incident]

9 minutes ago, kalifire said:

Has every adult been given a reasonable chance to get one? Genuine question.

A first dose? Yes, absolutely.

Booking opened to the last remaining group (18-21) nearly three weeks ago, and after the initial rush vaccination centres have been running with spare capacity for most of the time since then - all the places around here have been accepting walk-ins at any time from anyone 18 or over for about the last 10 days or so, and I think it's a similar situation nationwide.

[kalifire]

8 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

The only two positions that make sense at all are to reimpose lockdown (or at least stage 2 restrictions) to get the R below 1 and suppress this wave, or reopen fully and go for herd immunity. 

Why would waiting for a short time to allow a greater protection against the virus be senseless, in your opinion? 

AZ is only 71% effective against hospitalisation after one jab but 92% after the second. So a wait of a few weeks until more people have been as protected as they can be would greatly limit avoidable hospitalisation and death.

I don’t follow that any delay would have to wait until winter. How come? 

Edited July 6, 2021 by kalifire

[Matt42]

7 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

but how big an exit wave? it can be reduced with mitigations and/or with higher immunity?

Sounds a bit like vaccine denialism to me

[Havors]

1 minute ago, kalifire said:

Why would waiting for a short time to allow a greater protection against the virus be senseless, in your opinion? 

AZ is only 71% effective against hospitalisation after one jab but 92% after the second. So a wait of a few weeks until more people have been as protected as they can be would greatly limit avoidable hospitalisation and death.

I don’t follow that any delay would have to wait until winter. How come? 

Whats a "short time"?

Vallance and Witty say delaying further will just push any wave further into the autumn. 

[Matt42]

My prediction is that after July 19 you will see less people getting tested as they won’t be asked to isolate in the same way. + they won’t be checking into  venues.

I think there is a chance going forward people will only get tested if they have symptoms.

Edited July 6, 2021 by Matt42

[gooner1990]

Just now, Matt42 said:

My prediction is that after July 19 you will see less people getting tested as they won’t be asked to isolate in the same way. + they won’t be checking into  venues.

By this time next week I will have done five tests since mid June! (Three for Euro 2020 games at Wembley, and another two for parties I went to)

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Sounds a bit like vaccine denialism to me

eh?

[MrBarry465]

5 minutes ago, Havors said:

Whats a "short time"?

Vallance and Witty say delaying further will just push any wave further into the autumn. 

Vallance and Witty can say that publically, but privatley they will know more than anyone they are taking a risk here (however calculated) on reopening before a lot of people have been double jabbed.

We will know in a few months if it has paid off or not - lets hope it does....

Edited July 6, 2021 by MrBarry465

[Matt42]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

eh?

People seem to think that we’re going to rocket back to September 2020 numbers, as if the vaccine has no effect at all.

Its been very interesting to see the vaccine be diminished in terms of “effectiveness” ever so gradually. Makes me wonder.

[kalifire]

7 minutes ago, Havors said:

Whats a "short time"?

Vallance and Witty say delaying further will just push any wave further into the autumn. 

But a less harmful wave, surely. I don’t know, I’m not pushing any particular argument here, it’s just odd to me that a delay of a few weeks seems totally off the table and we have to be talking about winter or 2022. I haven’t heard a good argument why that is. 

[philipsteak]

9 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Sounds a bit like vaccine denialism to me

No it doesn't

[Ryan1984]

From the snippets I saw on the news yesterday, Vallance and Whitty (who don’t get six-week holidays in July) were urging caution whereas Johnson was more determined to put things in the hands of the public from the 19th.

If the scientists are genuinely concerned, I wonder if they’ll throw together one of those rogue ‘doom-mongering’ press conferences like back in the winter?

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

People seem to think that we’re going to rocket back to September 2020 numbers, as if the vaccine has no effect at all.

Its been very interesting to see the vaccine be diminished in terms of “effectiveness” ever so gradually. Makes me wonder.

I'm talking about exit wave...how high the cases go. The higher that goes, the more deaths...although will be a lot lower than previously because of vaccines. But at same time, how high the number of cases gets can also be reduced by keeping some restrictions in place...right?

[gizmoman]

42 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

The tin foil hatters are keeping their heads down they don't have anything to say about the restrictions ending which they said would never end!

They haven't ended yet and they could well be reimposed if things change rapidly, I've got a ticket for Watchet at the end of August, if that goes ahead as normal you can crow then and I'll be happy to be wrong.

[Fuzzy Afro]

Explicitly taking to social media to tell everyone you plan to continue mask wearing is absolutely virtue signalling btw (even if I’m not convinced the actual act of mask wearing is virtue signalling) 

[st dan]

Don’t forget that Vallance, Whitty and Co are also privy to the data regarding age, medical history, vaccination status etc of the patients who have recently been admitted to hospital, and who have sadly died. 
They must be comfortable with the fact that those younger ones who aren’t yet double jabbed aren’t likely to become those that end up in hospital. If there had been a recent swarm of under 30s ending up needing treatment, then we simply wouldn’t be progressing. 

Edited July 6, 2021 by st dan

[Matt42]

Wow. Looks like everything I said earlier is coming true.

12:30 Health Secretary will announce that if you are double jabbed you will no longer receive the ‘ping’ on your NHS app. So double jabbed people will not be asked to isolate unless they have symptoms. Great stuff - will bring lots of certainty to people’s lives.