When will this shit end?

[fraybentos1]

1 hour ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

It would probably be better to have a read through the posts before jumping in like this, there isn't one person who doesn't want the restrictions to be lifted on July 19 

There are a good few in this thread 

[dotdash79]

3 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

But there is no acceptable number to the zero Covid crowd? The government have got real and realised this is the best it’s going to be. If we reopened next summer we’d have the same numbers.

It needs and honest conversation on both sides, but that won’t happen. I would say around the standard numbers for respiratory illnesses.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

It’s not that they just oppose, but they need to offer an alternative. At the moment they don’t.

Their strategy has been “maybe it will take one more Tory scandal and people will vote us by default”. Which is not a strategy at all, and if anything will probably lead to an increase in Tory votes.

They need to be a better choice than the tories. Not a 2nd option on the ballot.

well, they're not in charge, but Ashworth has said he would listen to scientific advise first of all, but more likely keep some mitigations in place until we pass the peak of this wave, and whilst we vaccinate more people...like masks.

[Fuzzy Afro]

3 minutes ago, kalifire said:

Has every adult been given a reasonable chance to get one? Genuine question.

Yes. The online booking system has been online for all over-18’s for weeks and appointments are plentiful. 

[kalifire]

Just now, Matt42 said:

Everyone 18+ can book their jab. Those who have their second jab in the calendar have the option to move it forward.

What more can the government do? They can’t knock on people’s doors and shove it into their arms? There are limits.

If some people can’t be bothered to book one it’s not to the governments fault.

Agreed. But unless everyone has had a reasonable opportunity to get a jab (without having to know about some queue hack), one could argue that people who actually want to get vaccinated will now have to live in a Covid unsafe society until their opportunity arrives. 

I’m not necessarily suggesting that’s a good enough reason to delay easing - it’s all about risk/reward balance - but anyone believing that any one approach to this is perfectly fair would be a bit short sighted. 

[steviewevie]

Just now, dotdash79 said:

It needs and honest conversation on both sides, but that won’t happen. I would say around the standard numbers for respiratory illnesses.

I think in a bad year we get about 20k deaths from flu? Something like that? So, that's what our hospitals can probably handle. So, that's 20k covid+flu. If we're going to accept a higher number then we might need more/bigger hospitals and more health care staff....which costs money.

[Matt42]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

well, they're not in charge, but Ashworth has said he would listen to scientific advise first of all, but more likely keep some mitigations in place until we pass the peak of this wave, and whilst we vaccinate more people...like masks.

I really don’t think this is a good example of an oppositional vote swinger. No one who votes conservative is going to switch to Labour because Labour said they would have made masks compulsory. 

[fraybentos1]

17 minutes ago, dotdash79 said:

We know how to reduce deaths by covid, whilst you can’t prevent every death you can reduce it. There is a balance to be struck with other impacts. But if your ok with deaths then why wouldn’t you be ok with my question. 

Cause it was a really stupid question ?

[Matt42]

1 minute ago, kalifire said:

Agreed. But unless everyone has had a reasonable opportunity to get a jab (without having to know about some queue hack), one could argue that people who actually want to get vaccinated will now have to live in a Covid unsafe society until their opportunity arrives. 

I’m not necessarily suggesting that’s a good enough reason to delay easing - it’s all about risk/reward balance - but anyone believing that any one approach to this is perfectly fair would be a bit short sighted. 

People aren’t stupid and at the end of the day it’s down to the person themselves. If they are part of a category where they are older and less used to technology they probably should have been offered / had their vaccine months before.

Most 18-24 year olds should have at least had their first jab by now.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I really don’t think this is a good example of an oppositional vote swinger. No one who votes conservative is going to switch to Labour because Labour said they would have made masks compulsory. 

thought polls showed keeping masks in certain places was popular. Anyway, by next election they will likely not be talking about masks.

Edited July 6, 2021 by steviewevie

[Fuzzy Afro]

Silly mitigations like keeping masks compulsory will achieve nothing. Even under the current restrictions we are on track for a massive exit wave.

 

Let me make this absolutely clear, it’s a straight choice between an exit wave or reimposing lockdown. That exit wave happens whether you stay as well are now, relax partially or relax fully. So it makes absolutely no sense to delay reopening or keep minor mitigations.

 

The only two positions that make sense at all are to reimpose lockdown (or at least stage 2 restrictions) to get the R below 1 and suppress this wave, or reopen fully and go for herd immunity. 

[kalifire]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

People aren’t stupid

Spotted a flaw in your argument. 

[fraybentos1]

More people in that poll want masks kept on public transport than the amount I currently see wearing them correctly on public transport right now ... 

[Matt42]

1 minute ago, kalifire said:

Spotted a flaw in your argument. 

You’re not helping the argument that left leaning people see the general public as too stupid to look after themselves and need the state to control their lives.

All we can do is give people everything they need. I understand the frustration that some people may take all of this and still think “nah, cba with the vaccine”. It’s very frustrating but we have to respect their choice.

[Matt42]

Just now, fraybentos1 said:

More people in that poll want masks kept on public transport than the amount I currently see wearing them correctly on public transport right now ... 

yeah honestly take the tube in London. It’s about 50% uptake at the minute.

[gooner1990]

Masks vs No Masks its going to be like Brexiteer vs Remainer all over again.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Silly mitigations like keeping masks compulsory will achieve nothing. Even under the current restrictions we are on track for a massive exit wave.

 

Let me make this absolutely clear, it’s a straight choice between an exit wave or reimposing lockdown. That exit wave happens whether you stay as well are now, relax partially or relax fully. So it makes absolutely no sense to delay reopening or keep minor mitigations.

 

The only two positions that make sense at all are to reimpose lockdown (or at least stage 2 restrictions) to get the R below 1 and suppress this wave, or reopen fully and go for herd immunity. 

but how big an exit wave? it can be reduced with mitigations and/or with higher immunity?

[gooner1990]

Just now, fraybentos1 said:

More people in that poll want masks kept on public transport than the amount I currently see wearing them correctly on public transport right now ... 

There were already people not wearing them on my bus into Oxford this morning! 

Yes they may be exempt etc but a couple of them I recognise as regular commuters and were wearing them yesterday.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

yeah honestly take the tube in London. It’s about 50% uptake at the minute.

52/48?

[incident]

9 minutes ago, kalifire said:

Has every adult been given a reasonable chance to get one? Genuine question.

A first dose? Yes, absolutely.

Booking opened to the last remaining group (18-21) nearly three weeks ago, and after the initial rush vaccination centres have been running with spare capacity for most of the time since then - all the places around here have been accepting walk-ins at any time from anyone 18 or over for about the last 10 days or so, and I think it's a similar situation nationwide.

[kalifire]

8 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

The only two positions that make sense at all are to reimpose lockdown (or at least stage 2 restrictions) to get the R below 1 and suppress this wave, or reopen fully and go for herd immunity. 

Why would waiting for a short time to allow a greater protection against the virus be senseless, in your opinion? 

AZ is only 71% effective against hospitalisation after one jab but 92% after the second. So a wait of a few weeks until more people have been as protected as they can be would greatly limit avoidable hospitalisation and death.

I don’t follow that any delay would have to wait until winter. How come? 

Edited July 6, 2021 by kalifire

[Matt42]

7 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

but how big an exit wave? it can be reduced with mitigations and/or with higher immunity?

Sounds a bit like vaccine denialism to me

[Havors]

1 minute ago, kalifire said:

Why would waiting for a short time to allow a greater protection against the virus be senseless, in your opinion? 

AZ is only 71% effective against hospitalisation after one jab but 92% after the second. So a wait of a few weeks until more people have been as protected as they can be would greatly limit avoidable hospitalisation and death.

I don’t follow that any delay would have to wait until winter. How come? 

Whats a "short time"?

Vallance and Witty say delaying further will just push any wave further into the autumn. 

[Matt42]

My prediction is that after July 19 you will see less people getting tested as they won’t be asked to isolate in the same way. + they won’t be checking into  venues.

I think there is a chance going forward people will only get tested if they have symptoms.

Edited July 6, 2021 by Matt42

[gooner1990]

Just now, Matt42 said:

My prediction is that after July 19 you will see less people getting tested as they won’t be asked to isolate in the same way. + they won’t be checking into  venues.

By this time next week I will have done five tests since mid June! (Three for Euro 2020 games at Wembley, and another two for parties I went to)