The Weather Thread 2019

[chazwwe]

1 minute ago, zeppelin said:

When do we start to actually trust the forecasts by the way? People keep saying to wait, but when til? 

To be honest it doesn't actually impact my packing allt hat much, so more just curious. 

Normally it's 5 days out I think is when you can start to trust it but then with the length of the festival it self it becomes a bit weird. 

[bigfurbdogg]

1 minute ago, zeppelin said:

When do we start to actually trust the forecasts by the way? People keep saying to wait, but when til? 

To be honest it doesn't actually impact my packing allt hat much, so more just curious. 

If the forecasts are good, then they are trustworthy

[Mr.Tease]

30 minutes ago, frostypaw said:

Is that really any better?

Debate away - screaming it's all disaster and going mental over one day of some rain isn't really debate. We have the Nal already if people want to get upset for no reason

People can emotionally offload if they want to! 

[incident]

6 minutes ago, zeppelin said:

When do we start to actually trust the forecasts by the way? People keep saying to wait, but when til? 

To be honest it doesn't actually impact my packing allt hat much, so more just curious. 

For general trends, a week before. For any kind of specifics, 24 hours before.

[Mr.Tease]

4 minutes ago, zeppelin said:

When do we start to actually trust the forecasts by the way? People keep saying to wait, but when til? 

To be honest it doesn't actually impact my packing allt hat much, so more just curious. 

It's 3 to 5 days that forecasters tend to become more confident. What you can gather this far in advance is basic trends (is it getting better or worse, are things becoming more settled and predictable or unsettled and uncertain), you can start to gather if there is a risk of rain or low pressure etc. As you get nearer, specific days rain will hit becomes a bit more clearer (but can still be wrong), and rainfall amounts. But it can also all change 

[sprocketrocket]

16 minutes ago, zeppelin said:

When do we start to actually trust the forecasts by the way? People keep saying to wait, but when til? 

To be honest it doesn't actually impact my packing allt hat much, so more just curious. 

On the Monday morning when you're packing up. 

[barkley87]

18 minutes ago, bigfurbdogg said:

If the forecasts are good, then they are trustworthy

This is how i'm judging them.

[stopwn1981]

17 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

People can emotionally offload if they want to! 

Indeed or just generally take this piss, like I do. It’s all a bit of fun. Let’s not end up like the netweather thread - they clearly fucking hate each other ??

[briddj]

14 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

Indeed or just generally take this piss, like I do. It’s all a bit of fun. Let’s not end up like the netweather thread - they clearly fucking hate each other ??

Gone a bit dark on there at times (conditions which some of their posters must fucking love)

[The Nal]

9 days out in 2016. An alarmingly similar pattern. "low pressure followed by high pressure, 19 degrees, cloud no rain" etc

 

[frostypaw]

45 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

If it sounded like they were enjoying it I would.

 

OK fine, we're fucked by all the c**ty rain and everyone should be getting depressed and moody.

[BambooShanks]

8 minutes ago, The Nal said:

9 days out in 2016. An alarmingly similar pattern. "low pressure followed by high pressure, 19 degrees, cloud no rain" etc

 

But remember the mantra "There is no pattern"

[Brave Sir Robin]

10 minutes ago, The Nal said:

9 days out in 2016. An alarmingly similar pattern. "low pressure followed by high pressure, 19 degrees, cloud no rain" etc

 

Disturbing parallels of 'wow Download looks bad, glad that's not us' too...

[chazwwe]

11 minutes ago, The Nal said:

9 days out in 2016. An alarmingly similar pattern. "low pressure followed by high pressure, 19 degrees, cloud no rain" etc

 

At this time in 2016 the fields were already awful  

[stopwn1981]

[Wurzelcat]

2 minutes ago, chazwwe said:

At this time in 2016 the fields were already awful  

Yep, I need a "state of the ground" post 9 days out from 2016 but I don't think the ram jam jar or sticky stick were in operation back then

[Mezhyp1]

When was the video of the water pishing out the bubble in the ground in 2016? That was fairly ominous 

[BambooShanks]

Just now, chazwwe said:

At this time in 2016 the fields were already awful  

Thats the fundamental difference, the damage was already done by this time. 

Just now, Wurzelcat said:

Yep, I need a "state of the ground" post 9 days out from 2016 but I don't think the ram jam jar or sticky stick were in operation back then

Around this time I swear I was seeing videos of rivers flowing under the grass and parts of the field which was like a giant water bed.

The ground is fine now and there's mostly dry weather from now until next week.  The chances of a repeat of 2016 grows less likely by the day.

 

[mjfromthelane]

just looked at that 2016 thread and at over a week out from the festival there were pics going around of puddles on the tracks. ground would have been in a complete and utter shit state compared to what it is now. at least that's something....

[chazwwe]

3 minutes ago, Mezhyp1 said:

When was the video of the water pishing out the bubble in the ground in 2016? That was fairly ominous 

I'm pretty sure it was the Wednesday/Thursday before and then it continued to rain on top of that. 

From the latest reports, most of the ground is not only dry but when it does rain its drying up fast. 

[jparx]

Aye, condition of the ground at this stage is way better than 2016. We're starting from a much better base. Might still go the way of 2016, but I think it's unlikely to be that bad given current conditions and forecast. Still everything to play for and each day without a deluge on the farm is a victory.

[chazwwe]

1 minute ago, jparx said:

Aye, condition of the ground at this stage is way better than 2016. We're starting from a much better base. Might still go the way of 2016, but I think it's unlikely to be that bad given current conditions and forecast. Still everything to play for and each day without a deluge on the farm is a victory.

Not only are conditions better but the rain that is predicted to come is far less than that of 2016. It wont be perfect, it'll be a bit muddy if there is a downpour monday/tuesday but I don't see anyway it could get to 2016 levels within the next few days. You'd need an insane amount of rain, for it not to dry up and then vehicles ruining the paths

[Gingerfish79]

Having just survived 4 days at Download, my legs are toned from tramping through the mud and my feet are welly-hardened. Preparation is key!

Also, despite the biblical rain in the week proceeding, and the downpours during, the ground at Download actually held up pretty well, and by Sunday had started to recover.

[CaledonianGonzo]

Reading the 2016 thread and it's on the afternoon of the 16th that @Sawdusty Surfer reports in:

 

On site now. Massive cloudburst with painful hail 

 

 

[Homer]

I'm not arriving until a bit later, so if you could all stand still until about 4pm on the Thursday I'd much appreciate it.