The Weather Thread 2019

[Mr.Tease]

1 minute ago, jfaragher said:

This time next week, I'll be driving the van up to site in preparation for volunteering!  As the HYPE builds, thought I'd update this with the latest model runs.

ECMWF-15

For reference, the ECMWF model is considered the best of all medium range models.  It's produced by a centre specifically set up to explore the science challenges of forecasting past the normal range (~5 days), which brings together expertise from the various European weather services and universities, and beyond.  If I had to pick one model, this would be it.

This is forecasting some awful weather this week (as expected) but then looking at average (which isn't necessarily dry!) to drier conditions from Sunday on.  The main thing to keep an eye on is whether the heavy rain this week hits the site or not - if it does, it could be a bit of a mess as the build completes / traders and the bulk of the crew arrives on the Sunday - Tuesday.  Still, I reckon even then it'll be boots till Friday-ish, and trainers for the rest, dependent a bit on how showery it is during the show.

GEFS

This US model has improved a lot over the last few years, but is still not as good as the EC.  However, that doesn't mean that sometimes it's not right when EC is wrong - this is a complex science!

Fairly similar, slight variations in timing and normal vs dry, but still the same story broadly.

 

I refuse to accept this, kindly bring us a better forecast, forthwith! 

[barkley87]

Good to see comrade Dyatlov himself has joined us obsessing over the weather.

[tumbles]

3 minutes ago, lordjord93 said:

 

Thank you comrades!

I'm told its the equivalent to a chest xray. 

[Mr.Tease]

1 hour ago, cb4747 said:

I think it was during this point I wandered into the nearest tent to find a lady singing about pies!

There should really be more songs about the love of various foods! 

[tumbles]

Just now, barkley87 said:

Good to see comrade Dyatlov himself has joined us obsessing over the weather.

It's definitely moving on from not great, not terrible. 

[Mr.Tease]

16 minutes ago, lordjord93 said:

BBC Weather has changed, now showing thunderstorms on the Monday before the festival followed by light rain on the Tuesday 

Yet dry for the festival! 

Edited June 17, 2019 by Mr.Tease

[barkley87]

6 minutes ago, tumbles said:

It's definitely moving on from not great, not terrible. 

Yep. It'll be fine, I've seen worse.

[The Nal]

So defo muddy for at least a couple of days then

[xandercs12]

1 minute ago, The Nal said:

So defo muddy for at least a couple of days then

Do you purposefully stir the pot? ? I swear I’ve never seen you post anything remotely positive 

[jfaragher]

6 minutes ago, The Nal said:

So defo muddy for at least a couple of days then

Maybe - the rainfall is a mix of broad fronts, and convective showery stuff.  The former is more likely to rain everywhere, but less likely to be very heavy, the latter is localised (so could miss site) but typically heavier when it hits.

There is a chance that the rain that actually hits the site is minimal, and the site will hold up / dry out fast in the week of the show.

 

[Cooter]

Where's sprocket when we need him/her?

[bennyhana22]

7 minutes ago, xandercs12 said:

Do you purposefully stir the pot? ? I swear I’ve never seen you post anything remotely positive 

You’ve not been here long, have you?

@The Nal annually fulfils a sort of...erm...role on here. It’s kind of like officially authorised trolling...!

Enjoy his posts in this thread. Take none of them seriously. He’s a smashing chap. 

Ben

[gratefulbread]

Think we should all ignore this thread until the weekend tbh. 

[JoeyT]

Traders will be setting up Sunday / Monday so in terms of heavy rainfall in an ideal scenario we wouldn't get any over those two days as in terms of the population "peaking" before the festival starts it'll be then.

It seems lots of volunteers arrive as of Monday as well.

[mufcok]

I'm resigned to the fact it's gonna be wellies all weekend now, unless something changes. That rain all day next Monday and most of Tuesday, with the people on site Tuesday, it's gonna get cut up

[gooner1990]

2 hours ago, pie_and_a_pint said:

Ugh. Monday and Tuesday are looking like drizzly bimbling for us early birds. But the rest of the week is looking alright. 

(and on the plus side, we won't have loads of folk collapsing with heatstroke on the Wednesday this year. 2017 Wednesday was the hottest hot ever)

I’m arriving Tuesday around 12 noon and I’m hoping that the rain will have stopped by then! 

 

[gooner1990]

5 minutes ago, mufcok said:

I'm resigned to the fact it's gonna be wellies all weekend now, unless something changes. That rain all day next Monday and most of Tuesday, with the people on site Tuesday, it's gonna get cut up

If it doesn’t rain again after Tuesday the site shouldn’t cut up too much imo and may only need wellies/boots for first day or so (but that’s just my opinion!)

[tumbles]

5 minutes ago, mufcok said:

I'm resigned to the fact it's gonna be wellies all weekend now, unless something changes. That rain all day next Monday and most of Tuesday, with the people on site Tuesday, it's gonna get cut up

It didn't cut up in 2011 when we'd had a fuck ton more rain on days before hand. Infact it didn't really even churn up on the weds when it pissed it down at 10am - it wasn't till the friday that it got muddy iirc. 

[mufcok]

Just now, tumbles said:

It didn't cut up in 2011 when we'd had a fuck ton more rain on days before hand. Infact it didn't really even churn up on the weds when it pissed it down at 10am - it wasn't till the friday that it got muddy iirc. 

That was my first year but I'm struggling to remember much weather wise. Have a vague recollection of getting piss wet through in the queue Wednesday morning

[tumbles]

Just now, mufcok said:

That was my first year but I'm struggling to remember much weather wise. Have a vague recollection of getting piss wet through in the queue Wednesday morning

Was brutal pour down but only lasted about an hour. Just happened to be at the *exact* moment I'd got through the gate. By the time I'd got to Hawkwell I was wet through.  An hour later it was sunny and cider was in hand. 

[barkley87]

12 minutes ago, gratefulbread said:

Think we should all ignore this thread until the weekend tbh. 

Never!

[briddj]

GFS 06Z is updating...

Suggesting that Pilton might not do too bad tomorrow. Worst of the rain will be further east, and to the north.

Good news.

This is the worst of the charts for the area. Wednesday is pretty much dry.

Edited June 17, 2019 by briddj

[Stocksey]

13 minutes ago, gratefulbread said:

Think we should all ignore this thread until the weekend tbh. 

see you back here tomorrow then ?

[JoeyT]

Just now, briddj said:

GFS 06Z is updating...

Suggesting that Pilton might not do too bad tomorrow. Worst of the rain will be further east, and to the north.

Good news.

[Rubber Soldier]

37 minutes ago, barkley87 said:

Good to see comrade Dyatlov himself has joined us obsessing over the weather.

You didn’t see mud on the ground, because it isn’t there!