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Weather 2016


Keithy
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Has the major doom come about just because of one person's video update about the weather? It was only a few hours ago when everything looked positively rosy and most weather websites still seem to show that. I reckon we will all be smiling again tomorrow (for a bit until it changes) 

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2 minutes ago, fur_q said:

We haven't had an update on the current weather conditions in the Greater Manchester area in this thread for a few hours, not sure I'll be able to sleep until I get one. 

I can only update for Liverpool and it's grim as fuck.

 

 

It's also raining too

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11 minutes ago, fur_q said:

We haven't had an update on the current weather conditions in the Greater Manchester area in this thread for a few hours, not sure I'll be able to sleep until I get one. 

We had floods earlier. Stopped now.

8 minutes ago, beatboy1 said:

Has the major doom come about just because of one person's video update about the weather? It was only a few hours ago when everything looked positively rosy and most weather websites still seem to show that. I reckon we will all be smiling again tomorrow (for a bit until it changes) 

Not just Gav, but the Norwegian forecast is looking pretty awful too.

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From the Netweather model output discussion 

 

Quote

Looking at the ecm and NOAA tonight it's not that easy to agree with the gfs or ecmops. It would appear that the weather should improve as the trough to the NW declines particularly in the southern half of the UK with temps just a little above normal. This still isn't done deal by any means but something along these lines would appear to be the percentage play at the moment.

Edited by fur_q
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18 minutes ago, zico martin said:

To try and get some perspective on this, we've only been once before so how does 2014 rate on the scale of best/worst weather ever?  Whilst 2014 was a little challenging, for the most part it was fine but any worse would be a problem!

To rank recent years from worst to best  I'd say 

07,05,11,04,14,15,13,08,09,03,02,10

 

many others would probably disagree though. 

 

But it I would say 14 was realativlty OK if you'd experienced the horror of 07. 

Edited by fur_q
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2 hours ago, pedmills said:

Here's the average and maximum rain forecasts for all the websites today. The x axis is time and the far right of the graphs is the Tuesday before the festival. As you can see the predicted rainfall is very similar to the last three years at the same point. And we are very close to the point when the 2013 and 2015 forecasts started getting good and the 2014 forecasts starting getting bad.

mean 16.JPGmax 16.JPG

We all need to calm down and look at pedmills wonderful chart, as it's the only information worth taking note of at the moment.

The current total rain forecast is roughly the same as at this stage of the game for the last 3 festivals, including 14's mudfest and 13 & 15's perfectly acceptable showers. 

The maximum rain forecast at this stage is less than all of the last 3 festivals.

But look how different the actual rain that fell was to what was predicted. It proves that absolutely anything can happen between now and next week.

And that muddy picture from today isn't that bad, looks like a bit of surface water that will disappear in no time.

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