Weather 2016

[Eks101]

How many weathers are there?  Why are so many of them broken?  What's going on?  I feel so old and helpless.

[morph100]

1 minute ago, The Nal said:

He eats poached childrens lungs for breakfast and then before he forecasts the weather in the afternoon he walks around the park dressed up as Batman telling people hes Jesus Christ. 

Everyone has to have a hobby

[The Nal]

5 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

They have changed it since I looked earlier - thank god.

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Pilton~7292387/long.html

Wednesday looks shit but apart from that it is not bad. Earlier it was a 4 day mudbath.

Thats still a mudbath. Dry a little Thursday, another hit Friday, dry a little Saturday and another hit Sunday.

Thats 5 days of mud.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, The Nal said:

He eats poached childrens lungs for breakfast and then before he forecasts the weather in the afternoon he walks around the park dressed up as Batman telling people hes Jesus Christ. 

Jesus was a black man, no Jesus was Batman, no that was Bruce Wayne.

[nban2010]

Most sites saying weds will be dry so who knows. Still much to play for. But things just took a nicer turn.

[Eks101]

1 minute ago, The Nal said:

Thats still a mudbath. Dry a little Thursday, another hit Friday, dry a little Saturday and another hit Sunday.

Thats 5 days of mud.

On the plus side, low chance of being seen by Predators.

[devonhammer]

Summary

The models are in two camps. Although most of them predict heavy rain on Thursday, The Met Office/BBC and ECMWF predict a dry festival and these are the two big guns as far as UK forecasts are concerned. Furthermore, although GFS doesn't look good, the GFS ensemble shows 20 forecasts and the average of these would have showers at worst (although the ensemble forecasts are 6 hours behind the main forecast so it might change).

So, I'm much less confident than yesterday. I have much more trust in the Met Office than anyone else, so I'd say that it's likely to be dry, but there's a fair chance of showers and a mudbath can't be ruled out based on the other forecasts.

GFS

Rain on Monday. Heavy rain Thursday. Showers for the remainder. There's a trough of low pressure to the West that needs to go. Not good.

GFS Ensemble

Average shows rain on Monday and showers on Fri & Sat.

TWO

Rain on Monday. Rain on Thu. Showers Fri. Dry Sat & Sun.
Meteox

Only has 7 days. Rain on Monday. Heavy rain on Thu.

WeatherCast

 

Rain on Mon. Rain on Thu & Fri. Showers on Sat.

BBC/Met Office

 

Rain on Monday and the dry. Not too hot. Perfect.

ECMWF

Rain on Mon and then dry.

YR.NO

Rain on Mon. Heavy rain Wed & Thu. Showers Fri. Dr Sat & Sun. Not good.

[ghostdancer1]

1 hour ago, richy24 said:

Glastonbury shows on metcheck as baking hot with no rain whereas Shepton mallet is saying baking hot and pissing down! I know they are a few miles apart...but seriously!

which just goes to show that at this stage, these "input a place and get a load of colourful boxes/animated pictures" sites aren't worth a shite.

 

the only thing worth looking at at the moment is the overall European models which show trends. by Sunday we'll have a better idea for the south of the UK specifically, but even then, the yr.no/accuweather/metcheck/apple weather things aren't going to accurately be able to predict the difference between places a few miles apart.

[The Nal]

Worst Friday pre festival forecasts in living memory.

Even 2007 was better.

[Chazwozza]

Time to start praising the Weather Gods then, all this science just isn't working.  AHTWG!

[6t6o6m]

Metcheck has 6mm of rain for 0% cloud?

[Mezhyp1]

I look forward to getting fucking wet. Bring it on 

[MEGABOWL]

BBC still looks alright. I cant remember other years but last year and in 2011 they were absolutely bang on the money. Fingers crossed.

 

I'm still going to buy some gaiters later. See Weather Gods? DO YOU SEE?!

[Finding leto14]

A 12 degree drop between fri and sat?  WHAT IS LIFE

[devonhammer]

14 minutes ago, ghostdancer1 said:

which just goes to show that at this stage, these "input a place and get a load of colourful boxes/animated pictures" sites aren't worth a shite.

 

the only thing worth looking at at the moment is the overall European models which show trends. by Sunday we'll have a better idea for the south of the UK specifically, but even then, the yr.no/accuweather/metcheck/apple weather things aren't going to accurately be able to predict the difference between places a few miles apart.

Totally agree apart from yr.no. They are the Norwegian Met Office.

The others are mostly based on GFS data (because it's free). Metcheck are the weirdest of them all and have odd predictions like no cloud with lots of rain as mentioned and sometimes random 200 mph winds.

[Mr.Tease]

1 minute ago, MEGABOWL said:

BBC still looks alright. I cant remember other years but last year and in 2011 they were absolutely bang on the money. Fingers crossed.

 

I'm still going to buy some gaiters later. See Weather Gods? DO YOU SEE?!

BBC have been atrocious at predicting the weather for the past two weeks- even on the day itself.

Regardless, all forecasts tend to get the timing of the rain wrong by several hours, and they always seem to underestimate the temperatures

[bsolxiv]

Here's a bit of fun:

 

[MEGABOWL]

12 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

BBC have been atrocious at predicting the weather for the past two weeks- even on the day itself.

Regardless, all forecasts tend to get the timing of the rain wrong by several hours, and they always seem to underestimate the temperatures

(Sticks fingers in ears) Lalalalala theBBCforecastisfinesoIamnotlisteninglalalala

[ohvienna]

[Sack truck]

I honestly just want a dry time for Wed am for getting the tent up - doing it whilst getting soaked and all your stuff getting soaked is a pain  - anything after that is fine as booze and others quickly make you forget.

 

Ps Handy tip for the rain - make pre rolls and put them in an empty berocca tube, keeps them dry and stops them getting bent. I actually got stopped going into Stone roses gig at Heaton park - what's this? Oh just my vitamins. Carry on then......

[CaledonianGonzo]

7 minutes ago, bsolxiv said:

Here's a bit of fun

Which dates are the green bits due over Somerset, though?

[nban2010]

22 minutes ago, Finding leto14 said:

A 12 degree drop between fri and sat?  WHAT IS LIFE

What a time to be alive

[Wooderson]

Thursday looks vulgar.

[Wooderson]

Vikings are saying we're getting it right in the chevy on Wednesday. Gav is calling it for Thursday.

[kbearne]

4 minutes ago, Sack truck said:

I honestly just want a dry time for Wed am for getting the tent up - doing it whilst getting soaked and all your stuff getting soaked is a pain  - anything after that is fine as booze and others quickly make you forget.

 

Ps Handy tip for the rain - make pre rolls and put them in an empty berocca tube, keeps them dry and stops them getting bent. I actually got stopped going into Stone roses gig at Heaton park - what's this? Oh just my vitamins. Carry on then......

Sometimes I use Berocca tubes for Vodka shots when alcohol is restricted in an arena, security never look inside them