When will this shit end?

[stuartbert two hats]

5 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

I'm not convinced, unless they're sat on data that's not been published yet (I genuinely hope they are) - see how cautious Pfizer are at the notion of their vaccine being used in this way:

 

Pfizer/BioNTech said that their vaccine was not designed to be used in two shots 12 weeks apart. In a statement, the firms said there was no evidence the first shot continued to work beyond three weeks.

“Data from the phase 3 study demonstrated that, although partial protection from the vaccine appears to begin as early as 12 days after the first dose, two doses of the vaccine are required to provide the maximum protection against the disease, a vaccine efficacy of 95%. There are no data to demonstrate that protection after the first dose is sustained after 21 days,” they said.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/30/oxford-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-approved-by-uk-regulator

It's pretty risky to do this for the Pfizer vaccine too. The UK Government is essentially trialling this schedule for them as part of the rollout.

 

[Toilet Duck]

22 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

I'm not convinced, unless they're sat on data that's not been published yet (I genuinely hope they are) - see how cautious Pfizer are at the notion of their vaccine being used in this way:

 

Pfizer/BioNTech said that their vaccine was not designed to be used in two shots 12 weeks apart. In a statement, the firms said there was no evidence the first shot continued to work beyond three weeks.

“Data from the phase 3 study demonstrated that, although partial protection from the vaccine appears to begin as early as 12 days after the first dose, two doses of the vaccine are required to provide the maximum protection against the disease, a vaccine efficacy of 95%. There are no data to demonstrate that protection after the first dose is sustained after 21 days,” they said.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/30/oxford-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-approved-by-uk-regulator

Pfizer don’t have this data, so they are right to stick with what they know. AZ on the other hand had people with significant gaps between doses in their trials (for various reasons) and when they looked at infections in those with the longer gap, they saw that they were still significantly protected, even maintaining the 100% protection from severe disease once they passed 10 days from dose 1 administration. They also looked at the amount of antibodies to the spike protein in people with different gaps between doses, and lo and behold, antibody levels increased with the longer gap (they don’t have data past 12 weeks, hence, that’s where they have put the cutoff for dose 2...it might actually be fine to do it 6 months later, we just don’t know yet...could even be fine to do it later with a different vaccine, don’t know that yet either too!)...I hadn’t seen this data til today but @stuartbert two hats posted a link to the approval and it had these details in it. 

Edited December 30, 2020 by Toilet Duck
Typos!

[stuartbert two hats]

7 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

It's pretty risky to do this for the Pfizer vaccine too. The UK Government is essentially trialling this schedule for them as part of the rollout.

 

I suppose they have evidence of the immune system behaving in a particular way with the AZ vaccine and given the initial response is similar for both vaccines, they can extrapolate that they will both produce a similar result over the 12 week timeframe - but that's not the same as empirical evidence. Uncharted territory here.

[swede]

1 hour ago, Jack.194 said:

Why the fuck have they not closed schools, seriously?

Also, how can a government that have cut education to its core, pushed forward with austerity, and consistently voted against free school meals for the last TEN YEARS genuinely claim that they’re keeping schools open to ‘limit the inequality that shutting schools would cause.’

I’m absolutely beyond fuming. Not only that but it’s FIVE DAYS until most schools go back now!! I spoke to my headteacher yesterday and she said she hadn’t heard a thing from the gov/LA about testing, opening etc etc. And to top it all off, I still don’t really know where my schools stands as it’s a SEN school, they didn’t mention us once in that speech Gavin made.

I was really hoping for ~a month full national long lockdown, push forward with vaccines, and then things might’ve been looking up.

Sorry to rant, I’ve tweeted all I can but I’m still really feeling it.

My two kids secondary school has pushed back the start to 18th Jan 

[DareToDibble]

8 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Pfizer don’t have this data, so they are right to stick with what they know. AZ on the other hand had people with significant gaps between doses in their trials (for various reasons) and when they looked at infections in those with the longer gap, they saw that they were still significantly protected, even maintaining the 100% protection from severe disease once they passed 10 days from dose 1 administration. They also looked at the amount of antibodies to the spike protein in people with different gaps between doses, and lo and behold, antibody levels increased with the longer gap (they don’t have data past 12 weeks, hence, that’s where they have out the cutoff for dose 2...it might actually be fine to do it 6 months later, we just don’t know yet...could even be fine to do it later with a different vaccine, don’t know that yet either too!)...I hadn’t seen this data til today but @stuartbert two hats posted a link to the approval and it had these details in it. 

I know this has been said many times but thank you for your posts in this thread, it makes the whole thing a long easier to understand for us mere simpletons 🙂 

[zahidf]

Interesting that oxford can be used on pregnant women and allergy sufferers

[Leyrulion]

31 minutes ago, ShakeyCrash said:

This is where it becomes interesting. The numbers will come down but how much would this be offset by those 65-80 if things opened up?  Of that population what % are hospitalized if they get covid and how many are them are in terms of millions. Then you can get a decent worst case scenario if you repeat the approach across all groups right. This is using the obvious incorrect assumption that everyone will get (which they won’t).

So the vaccines have had no cases of hospitalisation (as far as I know) after the first dose has taken effect. If you look at 60-79 they make up 38% of deaths in England and roughly totals another 5.6 million. So there's about 10 million people in the 60+ age who make up 91% of deaths. If we take the government at their word they'd have all been offered one dose of either vaccine by 7th Feb. 

So mortality could well be significantly lower by end of Feb, as you and I think @Toilet DuckDuck mentioned it's a question of morbidity and what impact that will have on hospitals. Even if deaths are low we won't be getting many restrictions lifted if hospitals are still rammed. 

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, Leyrulion said:

So the vaccines have had no cases of hospitalisation (as far as I know) after the first dose has taken effect. If you look at 60-79 they make up 38% of deaths in England and roughly totals another 5.6 million. So there's about 10 million people in the 60+ age who make up 91% of deaths. If we take the government at their word they'd have all been offered one dose of either vaccine by 7th Feb. 

So mortality could well be significantly lower by end of Feb, as you and I think @Toilet DuckDuck mentioned it's a question of morbidity and what impact that will have on hospitals. Even if deaths are low we won't be getting many restrictions lifted if hospitals are still rammed. 

In theory the NHS workers are also going to be offered the vaccine from next week. (Regardless of age). So that SHOULD help with stuff as well.

[Toilet Duck]

13 minutes ago, DareToDibble said:

I know this has been said many times but thank you for your posts in this thread, it makes the whole thing a long easier to understand for us mere simpletons 🙂 

No worries! There’s loads of great posters in this thread though, probably the sanest place on the internet I’ve come across to discuss it! (I haven’t been tempted to jump in anywhere else!)...

[ShakeyCrash]

1 minute ago, Toilet Duck said:

No worries! There’s loads of great posters in this thread though, probably the sanest place on the internet I’ve come across to discuss it! (I haven’t been tempted to jump in anywhere else!)...

Don’t. I’ve made the mistake of reading comments section during this pandemic on various websites and deer god i can’t unsee what I’ve read. The horror!

[Jack.194]

31 minutes ago, swede said:

My two kids secondary school has pushed back the start to 18th Jan 

Yea the guidance for secondary schools isn’t necessarily the confusing part. But when you get into the intricacies of different schools, it gets confusing pretty quickly - and Mr Williamson did f*** all to help

[Guest]

28 minutes ago, Jack.194 said:

Yea the guidance for secondary schools isn’t necessarily the confusing part. But when you get into the intricacies of different schools, it gets confusing pretty quickly - and Mr Williamson did f*** all to help

That seems to be an all too common occurrence with Williamson.

[Guest]

There seems to be a big drive in the medical world to make people aware that if you picked up COVID at Christmas then you’ll be at a really contagious stage at NY. Hopefully the message works and households don’t mix up!

[kalifire]

Meanwhile in Melbourne, after 60 days of no locally transmitted cases, yesterday we had three. Private gatherings have immediately been halved to 15 from 5pm today (NYE) and masks are mandatory indoors everywhere. 

Sigh. 

[shoptildrop]

Okay after the Patrick Swayze marathon back to reality with Contagion (again lol)

[Crazyfool01]

3 hours ago, kalifire said:

Meanwhile in Melbourne, after 60 days of no locally transmitted cases, yesterday we had three. Private gatherings have immediately been halved to 15 from 5pm today (NYE) and masks are mandatory indoors everywhere. 

Sigh. 

Ah bollocks ... unlike here it will and does get shut down quickly ... all the best with whatever measures they decide to take 

[Fuzzy Afro]

6 hours ago, kalifire said:

Meanwhile in Melbourne, after 60 days of no locally transmitted cases, yesterday we had three. Private gatherings have immediately been halved to 15 from 5pm today (NYE) and masks are mandatory indoors everywhere. 

Sigh. 

I think I’d give my left bollock to be allowed a private gathering of 15. 

[philipsteak]

8 hours ago, Toilet Duck said:

No worries! There’s loads of great posters in this thread though, probably the sanest place on the internet I’ve come across to discuss it! (I haven’t been tempted to jump in anywhere else!)...

Every now and then I make the mistake of looking at the replies to a Tweet about, say, the vaccines. (stop it! With a small 'v') Fucking hell. Very quickly come running back here

[steviewevie]

6 hours ago, shoptildrop said:

Okay after the Patrick Swayze marathon back to reality with Contagion (again lol)

Last night watched Point Break that was on a few nights ago. Such a stupdily brilliant film.

[steviewevie]

Looking forward to this year ending.

[steviewevie]

6 hours ago, kalifire said:

Meanwhile in Melbourne, after 60 days of no locally transmitted cases, yesterday we had three. Private gatherings have immediately been halved to 15 from 5pm today (NYE) and masks are mandatory indoors everywhere. 

Sigh. 

yeah, but at least it's nice and warm there (or maybe stupidly hot).

[steviewevie]

Nice cheery thread for you...

 

[Crazyfool01]

Hopefully from today / tomoro  we might see some impacts of tier 4 ... at least on infections in London .... to counteract the bad shit above 

[steviewevie]

Snowageddon here in Manchester....well, we have some snow...not sure whether to attempt a run in it.

[xxialac]