When will this shit end?

[SamJ]

50 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

I’m imagining some exhausted civil servant forgetting to check the map of east London ...

[Guest]

Guys I don't think closing schools is a good idea...

[stuartbert two hats]

33 minutes ago, Copperface said:

No. Pascal Soriot - from the horses mouth.

Talking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, its chief executive, Pascal Soriot, said the company could provide the UK with as many as 2m doses a week and would start shipping the first doses “today or tomorrow”.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/30/oxford-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-approved-by-uk-regulator

You do realise you said 2m a month above? I suspect at least one of the "4 new replies" I've not clicked on yet has already pointed this out.

[Copperface]

2 minutes ago, Punksnotdead said:

Disagree about the 5 days a week. I had my flu jab on a Saturday. No way will it be different for the covid jab.

Yep, the rollout will apparently be 7 days per week probably 12 hours per day in major vaccination hubs. The constraint is staffing. Estimated at 46,000 staff involved in total as follows. 26k vaccinators to be divided by days off, rest periods, annual leave, sickness etc etc. GPs and other smaller centres unlikely to be able to maintain that pace for several months.

"In September 2020 NHSE&I calculated that if every adult in England needed to be vaccinated with two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, its vaccination workload would increase by 740%. NHSE&I calculated that it may need up to 46,000 staff consisting of 26,000 vaccinators and 20,000 administrative staff to deliver the COVID-19 vaccination programme based on a 75% take-up rate. "

https://www.nao.org.uk/press-release/investigation-into-preparations-for-potential-covid-19-vaccines/

[Copperface]

6 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

You do realise you said 2m a month above? I suspect at least one of the "4 new replies" I've not clicked on yet has already pointed this out.

Yep. My mistake - it was a typo. Duly corrected. Well spotted. The point still stands though. Delivery likely to be the bottleneck rather than supply when the programme is at full capacity.

Edited December 30, 2020 by Copperface

[found home in 2009]

1 hour ago, topmarksbri said:

I did rubbish, got 4 right

Same. Frustratingly had a mental blank & forgot JayZ's name or would have had 5.

Did you watch the whole thing? I was in stitches of laughter when Stephen K Amos answered Donna Kebab as the founder of DKNY.

[MEGABOWL]

22 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

 

😂

🤣🤣

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, Copperface said:

Yep. My mistake. Duly corrected. Well spotted. The point still stands though.

So 8 million a month for the first dose. That gets to 24 million in 3 months (not including the ones immunised before then, which will be just under  a million end of this week)

First phase is around 25 million isnt it?

They are now assuming someone is protected with the first dose, with the second dose 3 months later

So april for enough people to have their first dose is entirely feasible. Maybe May, but if the doses up to Easter have dropped the deaths/hospitalisations, then I think they will drop restrictions gradually.

 

[fraybentos1]

10 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Yep, the rollout will apparently be 7 days per week probably 12 hours per day in major vaccination hubs. The constraint is staffing. Estimated at 46,000 staff involved in total as follows. 26k vaccinators to be divided by days off, rest periods, annual leave, sickness etc etc. GPs and other smaller centres unlikely to be able to maintain that pace for several months.

"In September 2020 NHSE&I calculated that if every adult in England needed to be vaccinated with two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, its vaccination workload would increase by 740%. NHSE&I calculated that it may need up to 46,000 staff consisting of 26,000 vaccinators and 20,000 administrative staff to deliver the COVID-19 vaccination programme based on a 75% take-up rate. "

https://www.nao.org.uk/press-release/investigation-into-preparations-for-potential-covid-19-vaccines/

What's stopping them from hiring more staff? They've shown there's basically an unlimited budget for this stuff.

Also what is this about every adult getting two doses? Initial phase is the older and more vulnerable. That alone will see deaths plummet.

[Copperface]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

 

So april for enough people to have their first dose is entirely feasible. Maybe May, but if the doses up to Easter have dropped the deaths/hospitalisations, then I think they will drop restrictions gradually.

 

Very gradually, yes, that is likely. Not enough for mass gatherings though.

[Toilet Duck]

17 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Who knows?

But the government have been asked on multiple occasions about a projected, likely and realistic vaccination timetable for a defined section of the population- - not once have they accurately answered that question. Just vague waffle , although that seems to satisfy some.

I guess until you have the approvals in, you don’t know what vaccines you are working with. They almost certainly have a schedule with various scenarios on it depending on which vaccines are approved and the projected delivery of those...(to be honest, we have never been that far apart on when we think this will get done, I just still think Summer into Autumn will be when the low risk shots are done). The combination of completion of the vaccination programme for the main at risk group, 3+ waves worth of natural infection and predicted seasonality at that stage make me pretty confident this Summer will be a big change from last year! 

[Ryan1984]

3 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I guess until you have the approvals in, you don’t know what vaccines you are working with. They almost certainly have a schedule with various scenarios on it depending on which vaccines are approved and the projected delivery of those...(to be honest, we have never been that far apart on when we think this will get done, I just still think Summer into Autumn will be when the low risk shots are done). The combination of completion of the vaccination programme for the main at risk group, 3+ waves worth of natural infection and predicted seasonality at that stage make me pretty confident this Summer will be a big change from last year! 

Are you still confident of us all being on the farm the last weekend of June?

[xxialac]

Here's a depressing fact.

The government only allowed 5 hours to debate the Brexit Trade Deal, by far the most important piece of legislation in a generation.

When they debated fox hunting seventeen years ago, the debate lasted...5 hours.

[MrBarry465]

31 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Well people aren't going to follow it much longer. Past March, I wouldn't expect young people to give a crap about household mixing if the fuck up is with govt vaccine roll out

Again more nonsense assumptions and anecdotes. I'd say 99% of my friends are still taking this very seriously and we are in the 30-34 camp.

[Copperface]

9 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I guess until you have the approvals in, you don’t know what vaccines you are working with. They almost certainly have a schedule with various scenarios on it depending on which vaccines are approved and the projected delivery of those...(to be honest, we have never been that far apart on when we think this will get done, I just still think Summer into Autumn will be when the low risk shots are done). The combination of completion of the vaccination programme for the main at risk group, 3+ waves worth of natural infection and predicted seasonality at that stage make me pretty confident this Summer will be a big change from last year! 

Absolutely agree with that.

However I just can't see how the Government/Health experts will possibly be able to sanction mass gatherings/festivals etc when the full vax programme will not have been completed, the so-called 'herd immunity'/critical mass of 65-75% will not have been reached, when the rate of vaccination varies wildly throughout the world, and probably within Europe, when social distancing and non therapeutic measures will still be required up to that point, when transmission/infection rates will still be sky high, irrespective of morbidity and that is before such medical stuff such as new variants (your area) etc etc. I've consistently said, from what I have both been briefed on in terms of response, capacity and ability, plus all the available open source info, that late summer is most likely for a far fuller lifting of restrictions. And at that point, with winter again oncoming, do the Government just think, sod it, get it sorted ready for winter, and we start again in 2022.

Edited December 30, 2020 by Copperface

[Crazyfool01]

its not schools ....

 

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

Again more nonsense assumptions and anecdotes. I'd say 99% of my friends are still taking this very seriously and we are in the 30-34 camp.

I don't know where those assumptions come from either. Most of the people I know are following and will continue to follow the rules. All data shows people will continue to do that too. I think it's partly wishful thinking that we can force an end to restrictions which is why people come out with 'people not following restrictions', when in reality the vast majority will continue to follow the rules like they have done all through this. 

[Toilet Duck]

10 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

Are you still confident of us all being on the farm the last weekend of June?

I am! Keep the faith! (Who underwrites the go/no go decision early in the year is the main obstacle I think...that I know little about, so listen to others on here that know better). If it was at the end of August, I’d say we’d almost definitely be on...if it’s not to be, I’d expect it will be because a decision was made to not risk it well before we see the benefit of the vaccine roll out. The curveball is and always has been what happens in terms of morbidity once mortality is taken out of the equation (100% protection so far from severe disease with 1 shot of the Oxford vaccine (>10 days) gives me hope on that front). 

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, Toilet Duck said:

I am! Keep the faith! (Who underwrites the go/no go decision early in the year is the main obstacle I think...that I know little about, so listen to others on here that know better). If it was at the end of August, I’d say we’d almost definitely be on...if it’s not to be, I’d expect it will be because a decision was made to not risk it well before we see the benefit of the vaccine roll out. The curveball is and always has been what happens in terms of morbidity once mortality is taken out of the equation (100% protection so far from severe disease with 1 shot of the Oxford vaccine (>10 days) gives me hope on that front). 

Yup. And that's what the govt will care about.

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I don't know where those assumptions come from either. Most of the people I know are following and will continue to follow the rules. All data shows people will continue to do that too. I think it's partly wishful thinking that we can force an end to restrictions which is why people come out with 'people not following restrictions', when in reality the vast majority will continue to follow the rules like they have done all through this. 

Most mybfrifndsb

[Mellotr0n]

1 hour ago, Toilet Duck said:

He has before, it’s possible, but rather pessimistic (though obviously, it’s a massive logistical challenge). If it was a typo it would be closer to the truth (under 50s in the summer, rather than over 50s). I’m sitting here with the person setting up the main vaccination hub in North Dublin, the delivery schedule for the various vaccines (and when various groups will be vaccinated) is considerably quicker than mid summer for over 50s (mid-summer/end of July/August to finish everyone that wants one is what it is here, with different scenarios depending on when expected batches of vaccine arrive). I know Ireland and the UK are not the same, but you guys are ahead on vaccinations, have more ordered per capita, so I can’t believe we could do this more efficiently than you could. But you know me, I’m a gullible optimist! 

Hmm, who to believe...

Professionals in their field, scientists and epidemiologists, vaccine taskforce people with the actual data and logistics at their fingertips, or an internet Karen?

I tell you what, it’s a bloody hard one. 

[Punksnotdead]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Most mybfrifndsb

Can you not speak Welsh on here! 😄

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Most mybfrifndsb

A grown up response.

[Copperface]

22 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

What's stopping them from hiring more staff? They've shown there's basically an unlimited budget for this stuff.

Also what is this about every adult getting two doses? Initial phase is the older and more vulnerable. That alone will see deaths plummet.

What's stopping them from hiring more staff?   Why you asking me?

Also what is this about every adult getting two doses?  Really?

Initial phase is the older and more vulnerable. That alone will see deaths plummet. What are you classing as that group? How many? When do you think they will be completed? What about those who cannot receive the vaccine, will not take it, and most importantly, the pretty decent percentage of those who it is doesn't work on?

[MrBarry465]

9 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I don't know where those assumptions come from either. Most of the people I know are following and will continue to follow the rules. All data shows people will continue to do that too. I think it's partly wishful thinking that we can force an end to restrictions which is why people come out with 'people not following restrictions', when in reality the vast majority will continue to follow the rules like they have done all through this. 

Yeah I think this sums it up well really.