When will this shit end?

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

To be fair to Copperface if the NHS England chief executive Simon Stevens confirmed all vulnerable groups would be vaccinated by late spring. Then it's not exactly beyond the realms if possibility that all over-50s wouldn't be vaccinated by mid-Summer.

ANOTHER ONE! BURN HIM!

[Toilet Duck]

4 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Not again surely. Been through it several times. The situation has not changed. 

As for the Republic's vax programme, very different - a total population of under 5 million (ish?) and a total vaccination number of what, 2.5 to 3 million, and an urgent/vulnerable number of one/two million?........not even remotely comparable.

I know there’s a 12-13 fold difference in population, but there’s a pretty big difference in your infrastructure too, on a per capita basis, we’re pretty comparable...as I said, I understand it’s a big logistical challenge. I just prefer to think we can do it (and I don’t think it’s gullible or deluded). 

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

To be fair to Copperface if the NHS England chief executive Simon Stevens confirmed all vulnerable groups would be vaccinated by late spring. Then it's not exactly beyond the realms if possibility that all over-50s wouldn't be vaccinated by mid-Summer.

That was before the dosing change though?

Also, he was stating it as a fact with glee that it wouldn't be happening until mid summer.

[Copperface]

4 minutes ago, Losing my hair said:

With the Oxford/AZ vaccine now online I'm assuming that the pinch point will be production, batch checking etc rather than the actual delivery into the arm. 

There are 50 million shots to be administered into 25 million defined as the first phase group. We have a current stockpile of of about 500, 000 AZ doses. AZ themselves say they 'may' be able to deliver 'up to' 2 million doses per month. 

The NHS have a target of 1 million vaccinations per week. The Government have an 'internal ambition' of two million per week.

Let's optimistically split those targets and settle on 1.5 million per week.

That's 33 weeks just for two shots to what is classed as the first phase vulnerable. That's August straight off. 2 million per week is 25 weeks (mid June). That's at full chat, no disruptions, and only assumes that all is well once 'the vulnerable' have been administered the vaccine. Does not take into account the 10-15 % who will not be protected by it due to efficacy, nor the other significant amount (15%) who are politely known as 'vaccine hesitant' (or numpties). The spread and transmission is almost as important as hospital/admission/mortality rates. 

 

[zahidf]

Just now, Copperface said:

There are 50 million shots to be administered into 25 million defined as the first phase group. We have a current stockpile of of about 500, 000 AZ doses. AZ themselves say they 'may' be able to deliver 'up to' 2 million doses per month. 

The NHS have a target of 1 million vaccinations per week. The Government have an 'internal ambition' of two million per week.

Let's optimistically split those targets and settle on 1.5 million per week.

That's 33 weeks just for two shots to what is classed as the first phase vulnerable. That's August straight off. 2 million per week is 25 weeks (mid June). That's at full chat, no disruptions, and only assumes that all is well once 'the vulnerable' have been administered the vaccine. Does not take into account the 10-15 % who will not be protected by it due to efficacy, nor the other significant amount (15%) who are politely known as 'vaccine hesitant' (or numpties). The spread and transmission is almost as important as hospital/admission/mortality rates. 

 

Ignoring Pfizer of course I see and Moderna whenever that is approved. And potentially J and J. 

[oneeye]

5 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

Planning....

[Copperface]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Ignoring Pfizer of course I see and Moderna whenever that is approved. And potentially J and J. 

Delivery is the main bottleneck, and that has to run perfectly in sync with a constant uninterrupted supply. 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Copperface said:

There are 50 million shots to be administered into 25 million defined as the first phase group. We have a current stockpile of of about 500, 000 AZ doses. AZ themselves say they 'may' be able to deliver 'up to' 2 million doses per month. 

The NHS have a target of 1 million vaccinations per week. The Government have an 'internal ambition' of two million per week.

Let's optimistically split those targets and settle on 1.5 million per week.

That's 33 weeks just for two shots to what is classed as the first phase vulnerable. That's August straight off. 2 million per week is 25 weeks (mid June). That's at full chat, no disruptions, and only assumes that all is well once 'the vulnerable' have been administered the vaccine. Does not take into account the 10-15 % who will not be protected by it due to efficacy, nor the other significant amount (15%) who are politely known as 'vaccine hesitant' (or numpties). The spread and transmission is almost as important as hospital/admission/mortality rates. 

 

Good on you for going into detail and providing your rationale behind your post!

[Copperface]

29 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

He has before, it’s possible, but rather pessimistic (though obviously, it’s a massive logistical challenge). If it was a typo it would be closer to the truth (under 50s in the summer, rather than over 50s). 

Yeah, sorry, should have been clearer -  I meant completion of the programme for any over 50s + priority groups or first phase, however you term it.

[efcfanwirral]

All this talk of easter is absolute shit- just to keep people compliant longer. They know if they said how long this was actually going to last (along with the chance of people being able to do LESS in 2021 than 2020 due to not being vaccinated yet e.g. holidays) then compliance would disappear and the next few months for the NHS would be worse

This country has a government that takes Christmas and bank holidays off during a crisis, and when approving a vaccine today has said it would start being used on Monday the 4th. 5 days away, because of traditional times and dates (bank holidays and working hours). It doesnt bode well- it will clearly be 5 days a week, mainly business hours. 

This is a major emergency situation and that vaccine should be started being used tomorrow and should be rolling at least 12 hours a day with shift patterns til its done. But this country is steeped in tradition and it'll take a lot longer than it should 

Edited December 30, 2020 by efcfanwirral

[rascalpete]

15 minutes ago, Copperface said:

There are 50 million shots to be administered into 25 million defined as the first phase group. We have a current stockpile of of about 500, 000 AZ doses. AZ themselves say they 'may' be able to deliver 'up to' 2 million doses per month. 

The NHS have a target of 1 million vaccinations per week. The Government have an 'internal ambition' of two million per week.

Let's optimistically split those targets and settle on 1.5 million per week.

That's 33 weeks just for two shots to what is classed as the first phase vulnerable. That's August straight off. 2 million per week is 25 weeks (mid June). That's at full chat, no disruptions, and only assumes that all is well once 'the vulnerable' have been administered the vaccine. Does not take into account the 10-15 % who will not be protected by it due to efficacy, nor the other significant amount (15%) who are politely known as 'vaccine hesitant' (or numpties). The spread and transmission is almost as important as hospital/admission/mortality rates. 

 

don’t forget you’ve quoted here 25 million people getting two doses, do the same maths for the one does if the government are seeing that as adequate interim protection and it’s half that 16.5 weeks (4 months) - 4 months to April

i know there will become a point where there is overlap with the 1st and 2nd dosers which will slow things down so I take it with a pinch of salt.

Do I think they will achieve this, no, but I think it will be somewhere in between the 16.5 and 33 weeks that the government ‘declares victory’, and as mentioned above, May is still spring...

Despite what they said tonight, I do agree with you though, I think there will come a point where delivery is the bottleneck purely judging on what I’ve seen over the last 10 months and nothing more.

[Toilet Duck]

13 minutes ago, Copperface said:

There are 50 million shots to be administered into 25 million defined as the first phase group. We have a current stockpile of of about 500, 000 AZ doses. AZ themselves say they 'may' be able to deliver 'up to' 2 million doses per month. 

Are you sure you aren’t mixing up the delivery schedule for Pfizer with AZ? AZ have said they expect to deliver 40m doses to the UK before the end of March. I was talking to one of the leads last week and he said they expected 3-4.5bn doses of their vaccine available in 2021 (obviously a lot of these are being made by SII and not for the UK/EU/US market). 

[Copperface]

3 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Are you sure you aren’t mixing up the delivery schedule for Pfizer with AZ? AZ have said they expect to deliver 40m doses to the UK before the end of March. I was talking to one of the leads last week and he said they expected 3-4.5bn doses of their vaccine available in 2021 (obviously a lot of these are being made by SII and not for the UK/EU/US market). 

No. Pascal Soriot - from the horses mouth.

Talking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, its chief executive, Pascal Soriot, said the company could provide the UK with as many as 2m doses a week and would start shipping the first doses “today or tomorrow”.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/30/oxford-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-approved-by-uk-regulator

[rascalpete]

2 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Are you sure you aren’t mixing up the delivery schedule for Pfizer with AZ? AZ have said they expect to deliver 40m doses to the UK before the end of March. I was talking to one of the leads last week and he said they expected 3-4.5bn doses of their vaccine available in 2021 (obviously a lot of these are being made by SII and not for the UK/EU/US market). 

No this surprised me too during the brief, a lot less than I was expecting but they did quote approx 500k ready to go next week - I don’t know why, maybe something I misread but I thought it was around 2m that we should have by year end

[Copperface]

7 minutes ago, rascalpete said:

No this surprised me too during the brief, a lot less than I was expecting but they did quote approx 500k ready to go next week - I don’t know why, maybe something I misread but I thought it was around 2m that we should have by year end

Yep. I was under the impression that we had a massive stockpile due to the parallel 'assessment/manufacture' policy. 

ie I thought they had produced massive amounts and the UK had it available even before it was approved,as a gamble, but that if it paid off we would never be constrained by supply. Obviously wrong.

UK has committed to and ordered 100 million AZ doses, but order to be completed by year's end....that works out averaged out at 2m per week.

 

Edited December 30, 2020 by Copperface

[Toilet Duck]

6 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Yep. I was under the impression that we had a massive stockpile due to the parallel 'assessment/manufacture' policy. 

ie I thought they had produced massive amounts and the UK had it available even before it was approved,as a gamble, but that if it paid off we would never be constrained by supply. Obviously wrong.

UK has committed to and ordered 100 million AZ doses, but order to be completed by year's end....that works out averaged out at 2m per week.

 

Fair enough (though maybe Oxford and AZ have different expectations!)...that’s still over 20m doses though, 2nd shot delivered in Q2...plus Pfizer, Moderna and maybe others? 

[Guest]

 

😂 

[funkychick2007]

Who are they planning is going to do the testing in schools it shouldn’t be teachers!! 

[Copperface]

5 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Fair enough (though maybe Oxford and AZ have different expectations!)...that’s still over 20m doses though, 2nd shot delivered in Q2...plus Pfizer, Moderna and maybe others? 

Who knows?

But the government have been asked on multiple occasions about a projected, likely and realistic vaccination timetable for a defined section of the population- - not once have they accurately answered that question. Just vague waffle , although that seems to satisfy some.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, funkychick2007 said:

Who are they planning is going to do the testing in schools it shouldn’t be teachers!! 

They haven't made that bit clear, possibly Army or the Reserves.

It can't be put on the teachers, they've had to deal with so much already and have done such a good job that they don't need that added stress too.

[Homer]

1 hour ago, crazyfool1 said:

5 .... equally as rubbish seeing as I set up the Glastonbury Quiz thread 😞 

Was that one of the questions?

[Ryan1984]

21 minutes ago, Copperface said:

No. Pascal Soriot - from the horses mouth.

Talking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, its chief executive, Pascal Soriot, said the company could provide the UK with as many as 2m doses a week and would start shipping the first doses “today or tomorrow”.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/30/oxford-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-approved-by-uk-regulator

Spaffer and Hancock keep talking about this vaccine being a ‘Great British science success story’. Guess they’ll be pissed when they find out the chief executive, Pascal, is French.

[zahidf]

30 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

All this talk of easter is absolute shit- just to keep people compliant longer. They know if they said how long this was actually going to last (along with the chance of people being able to do LESS in 2021 than 2020 due to not being vaccinated yet e.g. holidays) then compliance would disappear and the next few months for the NHS would be worse

This country has a government that takes Christmas and bank holidays off during a crisis, and when approving a vaccine today has said it would start being used on Monday the 4th. 5 days away, because of traditional times and dates (bank holidays and working hours). It doesnt bode well- it will clearly be 5 days a week, mainly business hours. 

This is a major emergency situation and that vaccine should be started being used tomorrow and should be rolling at least 12 hours a day with shift patterns til its done. But this country is steeped in tradition and it'll take a lot longer than it should 

Well people aren't going to follow it much longer. Past March, I wouldn't expect young people to give a crap about household mixing if the fuck up is with govt vaccine roll out

[Ryan1984]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

They haven't made that bit clear, possibly Army or the Reserves.

It can't be put on the teachers, they've had to deal with so much already and have done such a good job that they don't need that added stress too.

Aren’t the army essentially being used as call centre support?

[Punksnotdead]

31 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

All this talk of easter is absolute shit- just to keep people compliant longer. They know if they said how long this was actually going to last (along with the chance of people being able to do LESS in 2021 than 2020 due to not being vaccinated yet e.g. holidays) then compliance would disappear and the next few months for the NHS would be worse

This country has a government that takes Christmas and bank holidays off during a crisis, and when approving a vaccine today has said it would start being used on Monday the 4th. 5 days away, because of traditional times and dates (bank holidays and working hours). It doesnt bode well- it will clearly be 5 days a week, mainly business hours. 

This is a major emergency situation and that vaccine should be started being used tomorrow and should be rolling at least 12 hours a day with shift patterns til its done. But this country is steeped in tradition and it'll take a lot longer than it should 

Disagree about the 5 days a week. I had my flu jab on a Saturday. No way will it be different for the covid jab.