When will this shit end?

[Toilet Duck]

3 minutes ago, Gregfc15 said:

Thanks for posting this. The lack of any published stats for this always seemed strange to me. At some point the UK will understand the risk associated with International travel, the lack of a proper self isolation policy with compliance or testing. It undermines anything you are trying to do to mitigate the spread when you have a source constantly reintroducing it unchecked. Unfortunately it will probably be once you are all back in lockdown. 

Yeah, other places are moving forward on this, so hopefully we'll catch up! I have 5 PhD scholars coming in from China tomorrow, flying with Etihad via Abu Dhabi. They all had to get COVID tests prior to Etihad letting them on the plane. They'll be self-isolating for 14 days on our dime when they get here even though they have negative tests. If this was properly organised internationally, they could get another test and be in the clear (of course it's entirely possible for them to pick it up in Dublin at the moment!) . Lufthansa have just started doing this and Alitalia have been doing it for a while out of Rome. Until we are out the other side of this, it really is the simplest way of getting air travel moving again.

Of course, in the data above, willingness to fly internationally at the moment may indicate a generally lower risk perception among those individuals, so if they are ok to fly, they might also be ok to eat out in a crowded restaurant and many other things, so I'm not sure if it just tells the story of reintroduction via International travel (but once community transmission is low, then I'm not sure how well air bridges with places with equally low transmission rates works versus actually testing people). 

[Ozanne]

Just now, ace56blaa said:

4,044 seems really low. - Getting a little skeptical about the testing ratio now. Guess it's still weekend figure, so tomorrow is a better day to look at.

That’s exactly it, it’s from a Sunday basically. Whilst it’s encouraging to be down slightly from last week, we still reached 6k cases a day by the end of the week. 

[Reckoner]

8 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Where are you based?

The stats are really useful, I’d like to know why people that have travelled abroad are showing more positive results. Is it going through airports and planes? Is it if you are on holiday you are likely to be out more whereas in the U.K. you are probably more at home?

Singapore based Australian, so I’m sure there is a bias to my thinking as strict travel restrictions have been an important part of both countries strategy. 
 

Why, I’m not sure. I’m sure the reasons others listed contribute. I’m sure there is a mathematical reason in terms of increased probability of contact or exposure to unique bubbles of people. Following 2 countries who closely monitor it though, it’s there in the stats (https://www.moh.gov.sg - that’s the Singapore dashboard. 6 of 15 new cases imported). 
 

it just seems to me like another obvious miss from the government for me and another example of failing to learn from other countries. It’s not going to solve the problem on its own with such high community transmission, but it’s not helping things letting it run unchecked. 

[Ozanne]

The latest data from Gov website on hospitals. In this order they are:

- admissions to hospital

- people in hospital

- people on mechanical ventilators

Edited September 28, 2020 by Ozanne

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

The latest data from Gov website on hospitals. In this order they are:

- admissions to hospital

- people in hospital

- people on mechanical ventilators

Is that the newest data available?

[tigger123]

8 minutes ago, ace56blaa said:

4,044 seems really low. - Getting a little skeptical about the testing ratio now. Guess it's still weekend figure, so tomorrow is a better day to look at.

Wow, Vallance's chart showing the rate doubling every week was quite wide of the mark then! (and yes I know it's Sundays figures and yes it's only one day's worth of data, but surely it shows how important it is that decisions are based on actual data and not on a chart that shows one of a potentially infinite number of possible scenarios)

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Is that the newest data available?

It’s what’s currently on their site after the update just now. Some of the data is a few days behind as it takes time to come through, I think the dates are showing though. 

[duke88]

12 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

That’s exactly it, it’s from a Sunday basically. Whilst it’s encouraging to be down slightly from last week, we still reached 6k cases a day by the end of the week. 

They still tested a high number of people for that figure though I think. Does testing slow down much at weekends? I know deaths are lower after the weekend, but is that the same for test results? We've had some big jumps at weekends recently.

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, duke88 said:

They still tested a high number of people for that figure though I think. Does testing slow down much at weekends? I know deaths are lower after the weekend, but is that the same for test results? We've had some big jumps at weekends recently.

I think that’s been answered above but yeah daily cases sees a drop at weekends. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

Worth noting that today’s 4044 cases came from 266k tests (1.52% positivity) whereas last weeks 4368 came from 246k tests (1.7% positivity)

 

It goes without saying that this is a VERY initial cause for optimism that the rule of 6 is doing something. Let’s not jump to conclusions, but let’s also be hopeful and optimistic. 

[onthebeach]

8 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

Wow, Vallance's chart showing the rate doubling every week was quite wide of the mark then! (and yes I know it's Sundays figures and yes it's only one day's worth of data, but surely it shows how important it is that decisions are based on actual data and not on a chart that shows one of a potentially infinite number of possible scenarios)

Isn’t that what projections are though - based on the info at the time? I appreciate he was probably looking at a worse case model but quite feasible. Once you start looking at actual real time data on a fast rising out of control infection rate it’s too late. Though if it scared the s**t out of just a small percentage to be a bit more careful, as far as I’m concerned (if we hopefully keep on this course) he’s done his job. Though he mustn’t cry wolf too often

[Chapple12345]

8 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

It goes without saying that this is a VERY initial cause for optimism that the rule of 6 is doing something. Let’s not jump to conclusions, but let’s also be hopeful and optimistic. 

Steady on, weren’t you aware cautious optimism is banned these days?? 

[parsonjack]

19 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Worth noting that today’s 4044 cases came from 266k tests (1.52% positivity) whereas last weeks 4368 came from 246k tests (1.7% positivity)

 

It goes without saying that this is a VERY initial cause for optimism that the rule of 6 is doing something. Let’s not jump to conclusions, but let’s also be hopeful and optimistic. 

Today's 4044 actually from 226,900 tests so 1.78% positivity.  However I make last Monday 1.99% so a drop nonetheless. 

Edited September 28, 2020 by parsonjack

[Crazyfool01]

So it’s all over then ... judging from how much catching up I’ve needed to do today .... will this thread self destruct when it is ... 

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, parsonjack said:

Today's 4044 actually from 226,900 tests so 1.78% positivity. 

My mistake, I was including pillar 4 tests 

[Gilgamesh69]

Mogwai have cancelled their February dates

[Gingerfish79]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/28/covid-19-tests-that-give-results-in-minutes-to-be-rolled-out-across-world

this is surely good news.

[Fuzzy Afro]

Just now, Gingerfish79 said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/28/covid-19-tests-that-give-results-in-minutes-to-be-rolled-out-across-world

this is surely good news.

Maybe moonshot isn’t as ridiculous as we all thought? 

[mcshed]

1 hour ago, gizmoman said:

This isn't just about Covid, you need to think about how your rights are being diminished and what any future government will be able to do once these measures are in place and apply to everyone. I really don't understand why anyone would trust this government after their record this year, but even if you do just consider what a really bad government could do with this kind of control.

But it IS about COVID, what you are complaining about here specifically is some establishments requiring you to use the tracking app, it is bonkers to say that will continue forever.

That aside the app only has anonymised location data so it isn't that big of a risk anyway.

[Crazyfool01]

4 minutes ago, Gingerfish79 said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/28/covid-19-tests-that-give-results-in-minutes-to-be-rolled-out-across-world

this is surely good news.

Looks very good news to me ... @Toilet Duck .... thoughts ? Game changing ? Lots of new tests on the horizon ... what likely timescales for us in the U.K. ? Given that we tend to massively cock everything up 

[steviewevie]

38 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

let’s also be hopeful and optimistic

never!

[SheffJeff]

8 minutes ago, Gingerfish79 said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/28/covid-19-tests-that-give-results-in-minutes-to-be-rolled-out-across-world

this is surely good news.

This is great news though it does worry me that we haven't bought any yet as we are invested in a test that takes longer and is more expensive?

[onthebeach]

8 minutes ago, SheffJeff said:

This is great news though it does worry me that we haven't bought any yet as we are invested in a test that takes longer and is more expensive?

Yes, it looks though we are going down the slower, more expensive but no doubt world beating route. Cynical me would think maybe there is no money to be made from this one

[Fuzzy Afro]

All indoor household mixing now banned in the north east

[FestivalJamie]

3 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

All indoor household mixing now banned in the north east

Have you got an article or source? I haven’t seen this yet