When will this shit end?

[august1]

I imagine people who are comfortable being on a plane and going on holiday are also having more interactions here so getting more infections than the non-holiday folk.

[Fuzzy Afro]

5,693 new cases.

 

That’s encouraging, IMO. 

Edited September 28, 2020 by Fuzzy Afro

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Where are you based?

The stats are really useful, I’d like to know why people that have travelled abroad are showing more positive results. Is it going through airports and planes? Is it if you are on holiday you are likely to be out more whereas in the U.K. you are probably more at home?

I was thinking it might be an indirect link - those who have booked a foreign holiday on average take the virus less seriously than those who are frankly terrified at the idea of going on holiday in the current circumstances.  It may be that those who are willing to go on a foreign holiday have a host of other behaviours that make it more likely for them to catch the virus.

Although airport scare the shit out of me, the number of differemt people that come though those places!

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, Freddyflintstonree said:

I think under 6,000 cases will be a bit too optimistic. About to find out though..

Haha, one can never be disappointed with low expectations! 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

5,693 new cases.

 

That’s encouraging, IMO. 

woohoo! Party!

[Ozanne]

Just now, steviewevie said:

MPs debating coronavirus now...if you're "working from home" you should get BBC parliament on...I can't because the man said I have to be in the office and pretend I'm working properly.

I’m watching it.

Different households banned from mixing indoors in areas of the North impacted by restrictions 2 weeks ago. 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, Freddyflintstonree said:

I think under 6,000 cases will be a bit too optimistic. About to find out though..

 

Just now, Fuzzy Afro said:

5,693 new cases.

 

That’s encouraging, IMO. 

Sorry engage in chip pissing, but it's Monday, there's always a suppression of cases on Monday.  If we're down on today's numbers tomorrow then we can really start to feel encouraged.

[steviewevie]

People need to fly abroad less not because of coronavirus but because of the environment.

[DeanoL]

6 minutes ago, kalifire said:

And those same people lack the perspective to understand that we are living through societal collapse. This is an interesting article, focussed on America but the same is true of the UK: https://medium.com/indica/i-lived-through-collapse-america-is-already-there-ba1e4b54c5fc

 

Paywalled for me but probably for the best!

[Freddyflintstonree]

Isn't that Sunday's figure? 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

 

Sorry engage in chip pissing, but it's Monday, there's always a suppression of cases on Monday.  If we're down on today's numbers tomorrow then we can really start to feel encouraged.

is there...I thought that was just the death rates we were seeing in the spring..?

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

 

Sorry engage in chip pissing, but it's Monday, there's always a suppression of cases on Monday.  If we're down on today's numbers tomorrow then we can really start to feel encouraged.

I was directly comparing against last Monday’s numbers.

 

It’s 30% higher (4368 last week). That is obviously concerning because it’s higher, but the %age increase week-on-week seems to have slowed down from the 7 day doubling we were seeing beforehand (it’s the third day in a row that we’ve been 30%-35% up on the previous week)

 

IMO, it shows that the rule of 6 is having some effect of suppressing the R number, but not sufficient to put it below 1. 
 

So we are still growing, but the rate of growth seems to have slowed somewhat. 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

is there...I thought that was just the death rates we were seeing in the spring..?

actually you're right...except there wasn't a dip on weekend of 20th Sept for some reason.

[steviewevie]

Just now, steviewevie said:

actually you're right...except there wasn't a dip on weekend of 20th Sept for some reason.

I think in the end have to look at weekly averages...let's see what we get in the next few days.

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

is there...I thought that was just the death rates we were seeing in the spring..?

You've got me doubting myself now, but... yes.  If you look at this graph, you can see the weekly shape, a pattern which briefly was hard to see as the cases skyrocketed:

[Ozanne]

Yes go by the 7 day average, it’s not advisable to just pick the odd days numbers. 

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I was directly comparing against last Monday’s numbers.

 

It’s 30% higher (4368 last week). That is obviously concerning because it’s higher, but the %age increase week-on-week seems to have slowed down from the 7 day doubling we were seeing beforehand (it’s the third day in a row that we’ve been 30%-35% up on the previous week)

 

IMO, it shows that the rule of 6 is having some effect of suppressing the R number, but not sufficient to put it below 1. 
 

So we are still growing, but the rate of growth seems to have slowed somewhat. 

Ah ok.

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, Ozanne said:

Yes go by the 7 day average, it’s not advisable to just pick the odd days numbers. 

I didn't realise Fuzzy was comparing a day with the same day from the previous week, which is a lot better than Sunday-> Monday comparisons. 

Fast moving thread today!

[Fuzzy Afro]

Now got another source saying just over 4000 positive tests today, not sure which is correct 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Now got another source saying just over 4000 positive tests today, not sure which is correct 

maybe that's just for England?

[Ozanne]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

I didn't realise Fuzzy was comparing a day with the same day from the previous week, which is a lot better than Sunday-> Monday comparisons. 

Fast moving thread today!

That’s ok, I wasn’t aiming at anyone specifically. It was more generally.

 

Todays case numbers are actually 4,044 down from 4,368 on Monday last week. 

[steviewevie]

Just now, steviewevie said:

maybe that's just for England?

or just for one of the pillars?

[Fuzzy Afro]

5693 was in fact yesterday’s number. 4044 today.

 

DOWN 8% on last Monday. 

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Now got another source saying just over 4000 positive tests today, not sure which is correct 

Why are you going from ‘sources’? Just use the Gov website. 

[ace56blaa]

4,044 seems really low. - Getting a little skeptical about the testing ratio now. Guess it's still weekend figure, so tomorrow is a better day to look at.