When will this shit end?

[SheffJeff]

1 hour ago, Toilet Duck said:

CDC in the US has published IFRs stratified by age group as well (based on a number of key publications). It's nothing we don't already know mind you...however, they have included several planning scenarios (1-4 are the lower and upper bounds of disease severity and viral transmissibility (moderate to very high severity and transmissibility) 5 is the current best estimate)...there's some other interesting estimates in there too, like the mean ratio of estimated cases versus actual case counts (11-fold difference, IQR of 6-24). If we can get a vaccine that works well in over 70s (or a treatment), then everything changes. 

Sorry toilet duck but can you dumb this down for thickos like me? My friends wife (who's one of the anti mask brigade) posted this data on her Instagram yesterday suggesting its a 0.054% fatality rate for the over 70s where as this suggests its the infection fatality ratio? Not sure what the the difference is but I assume its of huge importance... sorry for being simple. 

[DeanoL]

22 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

It's not giving your name to the bar that's the problem, it's being tracked by the government, when you scan the code it's verified online so you are tracked whenever you enter a new place, it's the invasion of privacy that's the issue.

You're not tracked. Your phone is.

You can attached whatever name and details you want to that phone, it doesn't matter. As long as you use the same phone at each place you go to, and should you get a positive test, you record it on that phone. 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, SheffJeff said:

Sorry toilet duck but can you dumb this down for thickos like me? My friends wife (who's one of the anti mask brigade) posted this data on her Instagram yesterday suggesting its a 0.054% fatality rate for the over 70s where as this suggests its the infection fatality ratio? Not sure what the the difference is but I assume its of huge importance... sorry for being simple. 

(I don't understand anything ToiletDuck says)

[gizmoman]

Just now, Ozanne said:

You don’t give any personal details with the QR code, no personal details will be shared. I don’t see it as an invasion of privacy at all, it’s a tool that can be used to help against the virus.

If you have a smartphone you are already being tracked in some form due to GPRS signals. 

Which is why some people don't want a smartphone, this policy is trying to force people to get a smartphone and be tracked.

This isn't just about Covid, you need to think about how your rights are being diminished and what any future government will be able to do once these measures are in place and apply to everyone. I really don't understand why anyone would trust this government after their record this year, but even if you do just consider what a really bad government could do with this kind of control.

[Fuzzy Afro]

I read that as 5.4%, not 0.54%

[SheffJeff]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

(I don't understand anything ToiletDuck says)

Nor me but he's good at dumbing things down for us simple souls... there was something the other day where an analogy of a door and a door knob was used which made things clearer for me, can't remember what that was though.

[SheffJeff]

2 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I read that as 5.4%, not 0.54%

You're probably right looking at it but ratio and rate are surely different? I'm not sure.. really should have paid more attention in school.

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, gizmoman said:

Which is why some people don't want a smartphone, this policy is trying to force people to get a smartphone and be tracked.

This isn't just about Covid, you need to think about how your rights are being diminished and what any future government will be able to do once these measures are in place and apply to everyone. I really don't understand why anyone would trust this government after their record this year, but even if you do just consider what a really bad government could do with this kind of control.

Apart from being careful socially my rights haven’t been diminished much at all.

I trust the NHS app largely because it’s been built on the infrastructure that Apple has built deep into iOS and know the privacy precautions they put in place. 

[DeanoL]

2 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

Which is why some people don't want a smartphone, this policy is trying to force people to get a smartphone and be tracked.

Well yeah. They're literally trying to force you to be tracked. That's the only way track and trace can work. You can't have a track and trace system that doesn't know where you've been. That's literally what it is. 

What they can do is anonymise it and link it to a device that you don't at any point have to link to your own ID. 

It's like - imagine if track and trace was done by hand. And you didn't want to be tracked, so you gave a fake name and a number linked to a burner phone. As long as you gave the same fake name and the same number to every place tracking you, it'd still work - as long as if you got a positive test you passed on the fake name and number to the contact tracers. Again - who you actually are doesn't matter.

They don't need ID. They just need a list of places you have been and a way of contacting you. That's the only way this can work. 

[kalifire]

The half measures I'm seeing in the UK right now is infuriating. Surely the countries who are handling the crisis with greatest effect have demonstrated that the way out of this is a relatively short, sharp lockdown where everything closes and everyone takes it on the chin for a couple of months?

When infection rates hit 6k+ a day and the government's response was to close pubs at 10pm, it was maddening. Nothing short of pathetic.

Equally as pathetic is the attitude of people more concerned about their privileged liberty than the health of the community. It's pure, unadulterated selfishness and these people need to see massive fines (£200 is risible) and jail time. People who violate guidelines put in place for the health of everyone cannot simultaneously claim to be "pro-life" or that "all lives matter" (two phrases I'm sure most of them adhere to). Their actions disprove that entirely.

Sorry to rant, but it's infuriating to see my homeland suffer so badly because of weak coward politicians who're fearful of reputation and legacy, and a minority of the public who are ignorant arseholes and put their own comfort before the lives of everyone else.

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, SheffJeff said:

Nor me but he's good at dumbing things down for us simple souls... there was something the other day where an analogy of a door and a door knob was used which made things clearer for me, can't remember what that was though.

all I know is his posts seem always quite optimistic.

[steviewevie]

[Fuzzy Afro]

ZOE app suggesting that the number of active infections has gone down since yesterday (I.e. it estimates more people have recovered/died than caught the virus in the last day)

 

First time in a while we’ve seen that, it’s good news. 

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

ZOE app suggesting that the number of active infections has gone down since yesterday (I.e. it estimates more people have recovered/died than caught the virus in the last day)

 

First time in a while we’ve seen that, it’s good news. 

2nd wave over already?

[Toilet Duck]

26 minutes ago, SheffJeff said:

Sorry toilet duck but can you dumb this down for thickos like me? My friends wife (who's one of the anti mask brigade) posted this data on her Instagram yesterday suggesting its a 0.054% fatality rate for the over 70s where as this suggests its the infection fatality ratio? Not sure what the the difference is but I assume its of huge importance... sorry for being simple. 

Nope, your friend's wife doesn't understand ratios and percentages...it's 5.4%! (basically 1.0 would be 100%, 0.01 would be 1%, so 0.054 is 5.4%)...

Edited September 28, 2020 by Toilet Duck
fixing a slight!

[DeanoL]

6 minutes ago, kalifire said:

The half measures I'm seeing in the UK right now is infuriating. Surely the countries who are handling the crisis with greatest effect have demonstrated that the way out of this is a relatively short, sharp lockdown where everything closes and everyone takes it on the chin for a couple of months?

When infection rates hit 6k+ a day and the government's response was to close pubs at 10pm, it was maddening. Nothing short of pathetic.

Equally as pathetic is the attitude of people more concerned about their privileged liberty than the health of the community. It's pure, unadulterated selfishness and these people need to see massive fines (£200 is risible) and jail time. People who violate guidelines put in place for the health of everyone cannot simultaneously claim to be "pro-life" or that "all lives matter" (two phrases I'm sure most of them adhere to). Their actions disprove that entirely.

Sorry to rant, but it's infuriating to see my homeland suffer so badly because of weak coward politicians who're fearful of reputation and legacy, and a minority of the public who are ignorant arseholes and put their own comfort before the lives of everyone else.

I feel similar to be honest. I'm in my late 30s, yeah we've been screwed over on affording a house but we've never been conscripted for a war. We've never had to live in fear of nuclear bombs from Russia. We're hugely, hugely lucky that we've never faced shit that was out of our control at all. This is the first time we've really hit up against anything like proper adversity (as a generation - obviously individuals will have had their challenges as always). 

And all we've been asked to do is stay indoors for a bit. Then wear a mask when we go out. 

Obviously there are also people with relatives and friends getting ill, and people losing jobs - but we seem to care more about not being able to go to the pub. 

I'm genuinely happy that I can't see my parents because I instead have to say at home with a networked connection to unlimited content and video, audio and text communication with half of the world, instead of not being able to see my parents because I've been conscripted to shoot people in China.

I've always had that underlying fear that world peace would only last so long, and that we'd get drawn into some other shitty war like nearly every generation before us, and our standard of living would plummet and we'd all be fucked. This is not that. I mean that could still happen, but what's amazing the most is that we clearly have generations of people who believe they're somehow entitled to have basically no big challenging external threat for their entire lives. When what we're facing now is really almost the smallest possible thing that could require such big measures.

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

2nd wave over already?

Well, there’s some talk that for all the moaning people are doing about the rule of 6 and the curfew, people are largely following it. It’s definitely not over yet but there is some cause for optimism in recent days. We should get today‘s case numbers soon. If it’s below 6000 then that’s encouraging IMO. 

[Reckoner]

4 hours ago, Ozanne said:

I’ve gone through the data report and it doesn’t say why this is. Could be numerous things I suppose. For comparison here is the positivity rates between people that have gone abroad and those that haven’t. 

Thanks for posting this. The lack of any published stats for this always seemed strange to me. At some point the UK will understand the risk associated with International travel, the lack of a proper self isolation policy with compliance or testing. It undermines anything you are trying to do to mitigate the spread when you have a source constantly reintroducing it unchecked. Unfortunately it will probably be once you are all back in lockdown. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, Gregfc15 said:

Thanks for posting this. The lack of any published stats for this always seemed strange to me. At some point the UK will understand the risk associated with International travel, the lack of a proper self isolation policy with compliance or testing. It undermines anything you are trying to do to mitigate the spread when you have a source constantly reintroducing it unchecked. Unfortunately it will probably be once you are all back in lockdown. 

Isn’t that why we have the quarantine list for countries that are deemed more dangerous than the UK? Albeit the cat is out the bag a bit because everyone and their dog knows it isn’t enforced. I’ve seen plenty Instagram stories of people out at the pub when I know for the fact they were living it up on the Costa Del Sol last weekend 

[steviewevie]

6 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Well, there’s some talk that for all the moaning people are doing about the rule of 6 and the curfew, people are largely following it. It’s definitely not over yet but there is some cause for optimism in recent days. We should get today‘s case numbers soon. If it’s below 6000 then that’s encouraging IMO. 

maybe we'll just get a wider, flatter curve this time...and we'll stick with rule of 6 nationally for most of the winter...

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, Gregfc15 said:

Thanks for posting this. The lack of any published stats for this always seemed strange to me. At some point the UK will understand the risk associated with International travel, the lack of a proper self isolation policy with compliance or testing. It undermines anything you are trying to do to mitigate the spread when you have a source constantly reintroducing it unchecked. Unfortunately it will probably be once you are all back in lockdown. 

Where are you based?

The stats are really useful, I’d like to know why people that have travelled abroad are showing more positive results. Is it going through airports and planes? Is it if you are on holiday you are likely to be out more whereas in the U.K. you are probably more at home?

[kalifire]

5 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I've always had that underlying fear that world peace would only last so long, and that we'd get drawn into some other shitty war like nearly every generation before us, and our standard of living would plummet and we'd all be fucked. This is not that. I mean that could still happen, but what's amazing the most is that we clearly have generations of people who believe they're somehow entitled to have basically no big challenging external threat for their entire lives. When what we're facing now is really almost the smallest possible thing that could require such big measures.

And those same people lack the perspective to understand that we are living through societal collapse. This is an interesting article, focussed on America but the same is true of the UK: https://medium.com/indica/i-lived-through-collapse-america-is-already-there-ba1e4b54c5fc

Quote

Collapse is just a series of ordinary days in between extraordinary bullshit, most of it happening to someone else.

 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

Where are you based?

The stats are really useful, I’d like to know why people that have travelled abroad are showing more positive results. Is it going through airports and planes? Is it if you are on holiday you are likely to be out more whereas in the U.K. you are probably more at home?

Spanish discos.

[Freddyflintstonree]

I think under 6,000 cases will be a bit too optimistic. About to find out though..

[steviewevie]

MPs debating coronavirus now...if you're "working from home" you should get BBC parliament on...I can't because the man said I have to be in the office and pretend I'm working properly.