When will this shit end?

[zahidf]

26 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Need to decide by today/tomorrow really. I want to defer my place but I feel like they aren’t going to let me do it!!

If I could study online from home and have accommodation refunded then I would do that but it’s not an option!

Exactly. Have no clue whether I will like the people in my halls and then being locked down with all of them and no in person classes just sounds grim.

Defer it if you can. If you can't, you can normally get out of accommodation contracts. See the cancellation clauses. 

They way students are being treated, i don't think its worth going down. 

Been feeling really down today so ill probably log off for the week. I just want to stay in bed and not do anything. BUt good luck with whatever you decide!

[Homer]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Defer it if you can. If you can't, you can normally get out of accommodation contracts. See the cancellation clauses. 

They way students are being treated, i don't think its worth going down. 

Been feeling really down today so ill probably log off for the week. I just want to stay in bed and not do anything. BUt good luck with whatever you decide!

Well, thanks for recommending Kennington comedy anyway. Had a great time on Sat night and just booked Andy Parsons - appreciated.

Edited September 28, 2020 by Homer

[Fuzzy Afro]

Interesting to note that serology studies are suggesting a 0.8% IFR whereas Vallance is saying 0.4%. Although that’s 0.8% since day 1, so I guess Vallance is factoring in dexamethasone. 

[philipsteak]

1 hour ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I mean Wales and Scotland used this in the first lockdown. It’s not really enforceable but as per all restrictions, it’s about reducing transmission not stopping it altogether.

 

The real aim of it is to prevent staycations to Cornwall/Cleethorpes/the Scottish highlands in half term. Perhaps closing hotels would be a better way to achieve that. 

 

Without a travel ban it'll have some effect, but if the weeks after lockdown relaxations started but before hotels etc opened are anything to go by, it'll be minimal. At least this time of year you won't get idiots camping in stupid places and leaving their shit (often literally) everywhere

1 hour ago, squirrelarmy said:

 

No idea where this came from

[Copperface]

1 hour ago, squirrelarmy said:

How would a travel limit be enforced? Potentially you could use the ANPR system to see if cars are away from the area they are registered in however if the system flagged up every time a car is 5 miles away from their home address there would be easily 10 million hits a day if not more. It would be impossible to check even 1% of those journeys to see if they are genuine. Probably have more chance of winning the lottery than being caught by the system. 
 

It could be a useful deterrent but in reality unenforceable. 

ANPR doesn't work like that.

Needs an active marker to flag up. It's not an active system, it's passive - it responds to flags, not create them.

[squirrelarmy]

2 minutes ago, Copperface said:

ANPR doesn't work like that.

Needs an active marker to flag up. It's not an active system, it's passive - it responds to flags, not create them.

So it needs to be told to look for a certain number plate and not just scan all number plates and check them against a database. 
 

My experience with them is for commercial sites, allowing access to certain vehicles but not others. 

[Ozanne]

In other news YouGov has launched their MRP for the US Presidential Election.

 

Edited September 28, 2020 by Ozanne

[Copperface]

3 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

So it needs to be told to look for a certain number plate and not just scan all number plates and check them against a database. 
 

My experience with them is for commercial sites, allowing access to certain vehicles but not others. 

Think you've just answered your own question there.

That database you have referenced would have to be proactively managed and individual vehicles added and removed as appropriate to create a flag.

Obviously the system can also be retrospectively searched as well, but again, only within certain parameters.

[MEGABOWL]

1 hour ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

 

Sounds illegal as fuck. What uni is this? 

This is getting insane

[Copperface]

1 hour ago, Homer said:

No worries, ta for the info. A week seems like an age away currently (going to go next Tuesday if we do at all), so not even going to bother to think about it/book until the end of the week. May as well do it after the Thurs lists come out. May be being thick but does it say what the explanation is? I guess where you go will make a difference too (Turkey is low at the moment... plus I do like a kebab).

Just do it.

[Copperface]

1 hour ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

Even if the rules say no bubbles, we'll be seeing my dad over winter. We lost my Mum last week, he's retired and we both work freelance from home and do nothing else at all. There is no chance I'm not seeing him over this time once we go back.

It's the chancers taking advantage of these unclear rules to see everyone they know that could ruin it for us

I'm on my last day of quarantine today after having been working in a Med country subject to restrictions. Have I followed quarantine to the letter? Have I hell. I've been out every day walking the dog and not once have I seen anyone during that time. But that is the extent of it so there is an element of managing your own risk to a certain degree and I feel comfortable in that. 

I'm due to head off again next month to two former SSRs for their elections and should be quarantining on my return from both of those and will manage that acccordingly in the same way.

[Toilet Duck]

33 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Interesting to note that serology studies are suggesting a 0.8% IFR whereas Vallance is saying 0.4%. Although that’s 0.8% since day 1, so I guess Vallance is factoring in dexamethasone. 

CDC in the US has published IFRs stratified by age group as well (based on a number of key publications). It's nothing we don't already know mind you...however, they have included several planning scenarios (1-4 are the lower and upper bounds of disease severity and viral transmissibility (moderate to very high severity and transmissibility) 5 is the current best estimate)...there's some other interesting estimates in there too, like the mean ratio of estimated cases versus actual case counts (11-fold difference, IQR of 6-24). If we can get a vaccine that works well in over 70s (or a treatment), then everything changes. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

1 hour ago, mcshed said:

I thought people were talking about the current situation. 

I wasn't sorry, was talking hypothetical bigger bubbles being allowed. As discussed though I doubt we would bubble with anyone if that becomes the rule as it usually requires public transport for us to see anyone and the maths would be too complicated!

[Homer]

14 minutes ago, Copperface said:

I'm on my last day of quarantine today after having been working in a Med country subject to restrictions. Have I followed quarantine to the letter? Have I hell. I've been out every day walking the dog and not once have I seen anyone during that time. But that is the extent of it so there is an element of managing your own risk to a certain degree and I feel comfortable in that. 

I'm due to head off again next month to two former SSRs for their elections and should be quarantining on my return from both of those and will manage that acccordingly in the same way.

Sounds interesting, what do you do out there may I ask? Unless you're doing a Paul Manafort and basically enriching yourself from emerging countries!

[Homer]

21 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Just do it.

I am approaching with caution. I announced on here my intention to go to the festival site recently and no-one batted an eyelid (I was unaware that you aren't supposed to go); it was only after that I was branded a 'dickhead' and a 'tit' by our friend the part-time Glastonbury security guard.

Edited September 28, 2020 by Homer

[gigpusher]

1 hour ago, Homer said:

Being a bit unfair there mate. As coincidentally said earlier, had to cancel a uni catchup next weekend. Four of the five people I was supposed to meet up with were in the same hall as me. So you will meet some sound people/friends for life, mostly.

Yes I'm married to one of the people who was put in the same house as me  and our very best friend who I would trust with my life was one of the others. There was only 6 in the houses we had in our first year so half of them being friends for life isn't a bad result. Tomorrow is our 26th anniversary of meeting. 

[Mr.Tease]

 

[mcshed]

6 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I wasn't sorry, was talking hypothetical bigger bubbles being allowed. As discussed though I doubt we would bubble with anyone if that becomes the rule as it usually requires public transport for us to see anyone and the maths would be too complicated!

I suspect that those sorts of issues are why bigger bubbles just won't work.

[JoeyT]

 

[Homer]

12 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

Yes I'm married to one of the people who was put in the same house as me  and our very best friend who I would trust with my life was one of the others. There was only 6 in the houses we had in our first year so half of them being friends for life isn't a bad result. Tomorrow is our 26th anniversary of meeting. 

Congrats! I married someone I was at uni with too - though that one bit the dust six days before Glasto 2014 (I still went, she didn't). I have a handy a habit of having massive life-changing issues happen to me just before I go to Glastonbury!

[Zoo Music Girl]

14 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

Yes I'm married to one of the people who was put in the same house as me  and our very best friend who I would trust with my life was one of the others. There was only 6 in the houses we had in our first year so half of them being friends for life isn't a bad result. Tomorrow is our 26th anniversary of meeting. 

Another one here who happened to be put in halls with two of my best friends. So it can work.

[efcfanwirral]

10 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Another one here who happened to be put in halls with two of my best friends. So it can work.

Not the same flat but people I met first day through my flatmates are still very close friends now

[efcfanwirral]

2 hours ago, Ozanne said:

I’m really sorry to hear that mate, what a tough time for you and your family. I hope you are ok all things considered. 

Cheers mate - it's absolutely horrible but we're getting through. 61 far too young 😔 

[Fuzzy Afro]

Encouraging signs from Scotland and Wales. Wales cases were 22% up on this time last week and Scotland was down compared to last Monday. Overall for the UK, we registered 4368 cases last Monday. I’d be very surprised if we post a lower number than that today, but I’m optimistic we’ll see another day where we haven’t doubled in a week. If we see < 6,000 cases then that’s a reason for early optimism that the rule of 6 has caused some downwards pressure on R (albeit not to an extent that we were hoping for) 

[Ozanne]

11 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Cheers mate - it's absolutely horrible but we're getting through. 61 far too young 😔 

Yeah that’s far too young. My condolences.