mcshed

He may well try, I don't think he'll succeed I think you over estimate members' appetite for defeat.

The problem is that Corbyn is the first leader from the left of the party since Michael Foot so with the left is worried it won't get a chance for another generation after Corbyn and is therefore hesitant to move on from Corbyn in case of losing control. If there where an obvious left replacement, who shared Corbyn's policy position but wasn't tainted by anti-Semitism/ being a dithery old man then there would be wider acceptance of the need to move on. Personally I'd have welcomed a leadership challenge, I think Corbyn is better when campaigning so either a stronger Corbyn would win or somebody judged better than him, win-win. Now there isn't time so we go into this mess with Corbyn. If there is a General Election then we either get PM Corbyn or a losing Corbyn who the membership will be willing to ditch off the back of failure. I don't see there being room for a better than expected defeat this time out.

I think we broadly agree on this, but Corbyn does have some advantages over a unity candidate in that he is more likely to bring the pro-Brexit Labour MPs who can support him but not a remain stitch up. I don't think Corbyn was that likely to get the numbers but l think it's less likely after Swinson's intervention. I don't think Clarke will get the numbers either but I do think everyone should be trying to talk to each other. If Corbyn won't countenance any other options after his one fails he is a fool, but in rejecting his offer straight away, only to row back to being willing to talk but expecting him to fail was stupid by Swinson.

But did Swinson's initial reaction make it more or less likely that he'd get that Tory support? And did it make it more or less likely the Corbyn would cooperate with her if his attempt failed? Bad politics from Swinson. For what it's worth I agree that a compromise candidate is more likely to succeed but as LotO it doesn't seem unreasonable that Corbyn should try and if you want him to cooperate with other options calling his offer nonsense is at best unhelpful. I suspect that there may not be the numbers for any plan to work, this parliament has proved in the past that it's better at saying what it does not want than what it does, but if the plans fail because of pig-headed-ness there's plenty of blaim to be shared around.

Realistically it won't take much to win the VONC but to win a confidence vote will take a lot of Tory support. Abstentions will be easier to get than votes but then twice as many will be needed. It is a very long shot.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-49355867 Tory rebel Bebb thinks Corbyn is better than No Deal and the offer is worth listening to.

But if they are seen to support Corbyn's attempt whilst knowing life-long Tories like Grieve and Clarke are never going to vote for him, then put forward their own favoured option afterwards they look the remainiest.

I think Swinson is making a bad call here it would be easy enough to say she's open to whatever options stop a No Deal but she doubts Corbyn can command the Tory rebel support needed without dismissing him outright.

This Is How You Lose the Time War is pretty good, a surprisingly emotional little sci-fi romance.

Won't there be more applicants than normal because they are using venues all over the place? The additional applications due to people trying to get Baku tickets aren't also applying for the Glasgow games like me.

Was demand really that high? I'll give you that it's unlikely but it isn't impossible.

You do realise if you get them all you have to pay for them all? You can't pay off only the ones you most want it's all or nothing.

This argument was particularly amusing when rolled out during the 2014 referendum: "Scotland's vote has never prevented us having a Tory government." "Errr we literally currently have a coalition government because of Scotland if you remove Scotland there'd be a Tory majority government." "Scottish votes never change anything we have to leave."

I still think there are many in Parliament who believe that if there is time for an election beforehand that's how things will work. The Lib Dem attack lines over this were Corbyn is wasting time we're the real opposition not Corbyn has missed his chance we're all fucked.

I'm pretty sure even Corbyn's poor narrative control could spin Boris delaying an election by a week so we crash out as an outrage, admittedly those who would be outraged wouldn't be voting De Pfeffel anyway. When I've seen this discussed elsewhere there's always been the assumption that if there's enough time do it after the summer then the first week back is fine. It's possible the leader's office haven't read the small print which yes is inexcusably shit.