When will this shit end?

[Ayrshire Chris]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

t's missing one on the top - that two people inside a building increases the risk even higher.

True! 

[efcfanwirral]

1 hour ago, Mouseboy11 said:

There was a graph during the Welsh presentation that showed that the R being 0.8 (current prediction) would result on about 800 deaths, a movement to 1.1 R would result in around 7200 deaths.

Shows what a knife edge we're on.

Edit: Found it


 

I just don't see how any easing can stop the R going up. But then not easing causes widespread poverty, suicide and starvation. I'm glad I don't make those decisions....

[Toilet Duck]

10 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

I just don't see how any easing can stop the R going up. But then not easing causes widespread poverty, suicide and starvation. I'm glad I don't make those decisions....

Chris's illustration above gives you a hint! Ease when R number is low (0.3-0.5), introduce masks, track/trace/isolate with gusto and keep some reasonable social distancing where it is practical...now that the curve is flattened, aim is to spread the peaks. So long as the reproduction rate stays below 1, cases decline eventually, the further you are below it, the faster they decline. But if it goes from 0.3 to 0.8, the virus is still under control. Separating out transmission within confined settings from those in the community gives a better indication of where cases are occurring. Most are now in care homes, hospitals, residential settings, multi-occupancy dorms etc. This should be a lot more manageable than widespread transmission among random people in the community (assuming strong, rapid, repeated testing and contact tracing of those at high risk of contact in the settings above). Better testing will make this even more practical. This wasn't the case at the early part of wave 1, where >60% of cases were from community transmission. As it happens, I'm starting to feel a lot more optimistic about how we deal with this over the medium term (still a pain in the a*se, but workable). 

[Guest]

What a mess. 

[Matt42]

58 minutes ago, Smeble said:

I think Elon musk  has mental health issues, his regular rants that decimate His company’s share price, his attack on the diver who helped rescue the children in Thailand, and now him selling all his belongings and the ‘name’ he is giving his child. These are not the actions of a sane person. 
 

I’ve said this for a while but it’s like if you gave the weird, really unsociable, and likely to probably kill someone kid in school lots and lots of money. 

[steviewevie]

If Toilet Duck is optimistic, I'm optimistic.

[efcfanwirral]

Stood in the queue for the local corner shop, bunch of 4 lads in front of takeaway next door with their bikes (same households obviously), one of them vaping so whole queue gets covered in his smoke and breath particles. Fucking dickheads everywhere 

[priest17]

5 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Stood in the queue for the local corner shop, bunch of 4 lads in front of takeaway next door with their bikes (same households obviously), one of them vaping so whole queue gets covered in his smoke and breath particles. Fucking dickheads everywhere 

Isn't the vape just illustrating what normal breaths are doing?

[efcfanwirral]

19 minutes ago, priest17 said:

Isn't the vape just illustrating what normal breaths are doing?

Maybe but I guess because there's more of it it travels further? They dont seem to need to blow that hard to make it travel quite a distance. 

Hated it when it was allowed in gigs, spent a whole Muse indoor gig (the academy tour) with a sickly chocolate smell from constant vaping of the person next to me 

 

[efcfanwirral]

And in other news lockdown appears to be over round here. Lots of street parties 

[Guest]

27 minutes ago, priest17 said:

Isn't the vape just illustrating what normal breaths are doing?

It’s a bit different as with vaping/smoking you breath out harder and further. 

[Mouseboy11]

1 hour ago, Matt42 said:

I’ve said this for a while but it’s like if you gave the weird, really unsociable, and likely to probably kill someone kid in school lots and lots of money & LSD.

Fixed that for you

[Guest]

I thought that about smoking and vaping the other day. Why not ban that in public spaces too, surely smoking would risk spreading the virus?

Edited May 8, 2020 by Ozanne

[zahidf]

 

 

[stuie]

8 hours ago, Ozanne said:

People were going into my local hospital at the beginning of all this and knocking hand sanitiser 🤯

Saw a guy filling up his pocket sanitiser bottle from the complimentary big bottle at the entrance of Tesco express today! 🤷‍♂️

[priest17]

39 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It’s a bit different as with vaping/smoking you breath out harder and further. 

 

42 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Maybe but I guess because there's more of it it travels further? They dont seem to need to blow that hard to make it travel quite a distance. 

Hated it when it was allowed in gigs, spent a whole Muse indoor gig (the academy tour) with a sickly chocolate smell from constant vaping of the person next to me 

 

Yeah probably not as bad as your average jogger. 

I get hating the smoking and vaping habits I just don't think it's any worse than, yknow, breathing when it comes to the virus.

[efcfanwirral]

3 minutes ago, priest17 said:

 

Yeah probably not as bad as your average jogger. 

I get hating the smoking and vaping habits I just don't think it's any worse than, yknow, breathing when it comes to the virus.

I dont have any problem with people doing it, its just the obnoxious blowing it directly at people in a huge cloud of sickly sweet smoke that isnt great 

Though I prefer the cigarette smoke smell in normal circumstances. Festivals remind me of the time before the ban, before you could just smell people in the pub 😂

[priest17]

4 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

I dont have any problem with people doing it, its just the obnoxious blowing it directly at people in a huge cloud of sickly sweet smoke that isnt great 

Though I prefer the cigarette smoke smell in normal circumstances. Festivals remind me of the time before the ban, before you could just smell people in the pub 😂

Oh yeah I totally agree with that. I'm a smoker though and don't wanna come off as moaning about the new gen folk ahah. Just common courtesy to blow away from people though.

[steviewevie]

I think everyone should stop doing stuff that I don't do.

[Bisque]

I got told off by an old biddy for vaping in a socially distanced queue.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

I don’t know whether it’s the length of time, or the impending announcement (which will be very marginal in terms of what changes anyway) but a good percentage of people I know have given up on social distancing anyway. The people that I know who are in relative proximity to each other have started congregating at each other’s homes in large numbers, a few friends with bikes have cycled to their families today. It shows how hard it is to capture people’s attention for any length of time. 

[steviewevie]

I know someone who works pretty high up in NHS England and he says they are absolutely cacking themselves about a second spike, especially if it's during the winter months.

[Guest]

https://www.worthingherald.co.uk/health/coronavirus/worthings-coronavirus-death-rate-among-lowest-england-and-wales-2843129

 

If anyone's interested this is about the town I live in. It mainly has an older population so as stated in the article they are kind of bucking the trend.

[Simsy]

2 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

And in other news lockdown appears to be over round here. Lots of street parties 

They're all social distance street parties round here, neighbours sat 2m apart spread across the whole pavement so you have to walk in the road to get round them.

[Guest]

 

5 minutes ago, Simsy said:

They're all social distance street parties round here, neighbours sat 2m apart spread across the whole pavement so you have to walk in the road to get round them.

Surely they shouldn't even be doing that? It adds an element of risk that after a bit of time some will get too close to people and risk passing the virus on.