When will this shit end?

[Copperface]

Just now, Toilet Duck said:

But the Oxford vaccine won’t only be administered by the NHS surely? No issue using community pharmacists, higher education institutions and a whole lot more to roll that one out.

All done under the banner of the NHS.

[zahidf]

US aiming for full population vaccination by June

 

 

[Toilet Duck]

13 minutes ago, Copperface said:

All done under the banner of the NHS.

I don’t really know how the NHS works, so not sure what that means! (Maybe it just means NHS estimates are those for all vaccinations?). Basically a 2 shot vaccination programme for the at risk population is twice this year’s planned flu programme (aimed for 25m in 6-8 weeks...usually hits about 15m). I know it’s more complicated getting everyone in twice and there have been some software issues, but it shouldn’t take 8 months (mid summer) unless there are supply issues...

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

30 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I don’t really know how the NHS works, so not sure what that means! (Maybe it just means NHS estimates are those for all vaccinations?). Basically a 2 shot vaccination programme for the at risk population is twice this year’s planned flu programme (aimed for 25m in 6-8 weeks...usually hits about 15m). I know it’s more complicated getting everyone in twice and there have been some software issues, but it shouldn’t take 8 months (mid summer) unless there are supply issues...

And they don’t open up football stadiums etc to roll out the flu vaccine.

[FestivalJamie]

35,928 cases.....

[onthebeach]

Maybe living in Leicester/O&W with restrictions/lockdowns/highest tier until today had got me so used to this shit for so long that we had already resigned ourselves to having only our household for Christmas this year even though we could have gone with the previous 5 day rule with 3 households. Regardless of what was allowed we didn’t feel comfortable with this relaxation anyway due to what would inevitably happen after Christmas. However, this works for us and I feel so sorry for others who had this change of plan dropped on them yesterday - its horrible and I really don’t know how I’d react if my circumstances were similar.

I really believe that this decision should have been made 3 weeks ago and as usual the government have f**cked it up again. I’m a bit cynical about the new variant, I believe it exists but it’s being used beyond its potential problems. A reason not to get too ‘spooked’ by the ‘mutant’ virus, if it was that more infectious it would have taken off in other regions as well since September - particularly South West on the graph on this tweet. Surely this variant would be at a much higher % by now in regions other than London, SE and East? I think that it’s being used to scare us all a bit, make the government look though they were forced to do this now rather than weeks ago and it’s the ‘mutant virus’ that’s stolen Christmas - not Boris the grinch. 

 

[tarw]

Had my first jab at lunchtime 😁😁. Very efficient and no I’ll effects whatsoever. 

[Mellotr0n]

1 hour ago, Toilet Duck said:

There’s almost enough Pfizer vaccine due next year to complete phase 1 (40m doses I think), but that would take most of the year to supply (Moderna would more or less cover the rest, but unlikely to be available til Easter). Approval of the Oxford vaccine shifts the timeframe to completion significantly though. As it happens, I was talking to one of the leads on the Oxford team during the week. Didn’t ask him outright when they expected approval as it would have been unprofessional (we were talking about something else, and anyway, it’s not his decision!) but they are very happy with where they are. When that’s available, no reason to think Phase 1 can’t be completed well before summer...Through summer and into autumn, it should be a drive to get lower risk individuals vaccinated before winter.

Thanks for restoring some sanity. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

11,577 cases in London alone 

[Paul ™]

@Toilet Duck I see the ORF1ab variant mentioned, yet I also see the term VUI-202012/01 (Variant Under Investigation) used.

Can you explain if they are the same or not, and if they are, why the naming difference? 

RF1ab

[Crazyfool01]

National Tier 4 incoming  ........ source Crazyfool 

[efcfanwirral]

The numbers down there are insane. 

One explanation could be loads getting tested before going home, which then just shows how many asymptomatic cases there are who just wouldn't get tested otherwise. 

And this is Sunday data...

[rascalpete]

3 hours ago, Toilet Duck said:

Just packed up the teepee in my daughter’s room to make way for the inevitable pile of God only knows what she’ll accumulate this week (especially from my crazy sisters)...had a little pang and a fond reminisce about the part of the festival I like least (packing up and going home!)...c’mon Oxford, hurry up and get us all vaccinated!!

Hey TD, absolutely agree, hate hate hate that Monday morning but you know what, at the moment I’m longing for the prospect of it!!

Some articles in the press that approval will be on or before the 28th... (not sure how the telegraph could no this but let’s go with it.) given that 28th is a bank holiday im kind of discounting that so realistically how likely is it we might see something before Christmas? If you were a betting man and totally hypothetical, which date has your money? I’m gonna go 23rd (but had previously guessed 18th based purely on desperation)

[zahidf]

 

[SophieBee]

Hello. I'm not a regular poster (especially after failing to get tickets for the last couple of years), but I've been following this thread throughout and this seemed like the best place to post this.

I've been invited to join one of the vaccine trials - the Janssen Ensemble 2 trial, which is testing a two dose regime of the vaccine that they've been testing with one dose for a while now. Really excited to be part of this research. I know that it's a 50% chance of getting a placebo, but I'm low on the list so not going to get anywhere near an approved vaccine until the second half of 2021 and, being relatively low risk, it seems like a good thing to do for all sorts of reasons. Anyway, I guess I just wanted to say that as well as the Pfizer and Oxford vaccines, there are still loads in development and things are going to definitely look different this time next year. It's shit at the moment and it's going to be shit for a while yet, but it's not forever.

[Fuzzy Afro]

The R0 of this new variant must be fucking huge if it’s causing this many cases despite fucking draconian restrictions. 

[Crazyfool01]

5 minutes ago, SophieBee said:

Hello. I'm not a regular poster (especially after failing to get tickets for the last couple of years), but I've been following this thread throughout and this seemed like the best place to post this.

I've been invited to join one of the vaccine trials - the Janssen Ensemble 2 trial, which is testing a two dose regime of the vaccine that they've been testing with one dose for a while now. Really excited to be part of this research. I know that it's a 50% chance of getting a placebo, but I'm low on the list so not going to get anywhere near an approved vaccine until the second half of 2021 and, being relatively low risk, it seems like a good thing to do for all sorts of reasons. Anyway, I guess I just wanted to say that as well as the Pfizer and Oxford vaccines, there are still loads in development and things are going to definitely look different this time next year. It's shit at the moment and it's going to be shit for a while yet, but it's not forever.

go for it .... and thankyou ... without people doing the trials we would be nowhere near where we are now ..... hopefully you will enjoy better luck in the resale whenever that may be 🙂 

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

The R0 of this new variant must be fucking huge if it’s causing this many cases despite fucking draconian restrictions. 

Tier 2 restrictions ..... which were struggling to halt the cases earlier on .... 

Edited December 20, 2020 by crazyfool1

[Copperface]

45 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I don’t really know how the NHS works, so not sure what that means! (Maybe it just means NHS estimates are those for all vaccinations?). Basically a 2 shot vaccination programme for the at risk population is twice this year’s planned flu programme (aimed for 25m in 6-8 weeks...usually hits about 15m). I know it’s more complicated getting everyone in twice and there have been some software issues, but it shouldn’t take 8 months (mid summer) unless there are supply issues...

The NHS is complicated, but basically it comes down to money and public funding...

This years flu programme is aimed at twice the normal number, looking at about 25 million but take up is obviously different to that number. The 2 shot covid programme is on top of that.

There are supply issues with both at the moment. This delivery will ramp up over time but at the moment we are only getting about 140,00 per week based on the last two weeks figures - this will though increase substantially when AZ comes on stream.

So any projections have inbuilt slippage. Even based on a million per week, there is a current shortfall of 840,000 per week to add on to any projections. I'd think think that all going well, we might be up to full delivery capacity end of January?

42 mass vax hubs delivering between 2-5000 jabs per day each - about a million per week

1200 PCN hubs plus others  delivering about 1000 each per week= 1.2 million per week. 

So around two million may possibly be feasible, That's still 25 weeks. Clearly this is a bit elastic as so many variables are baked in. But that scale of rollout on top of the flu programme is going to take time.

 

[Toilet Duck]

14 minutes ago, Paul ™ said:

@Toilet Duck I see the ORF1ab variant mentioned, yet I also see the term VUI-202012/01 (Variant Under Investigation) used.

Can you explain if they are the same or not, and if they are, why the naming difference? 

RF1ab

Hi Paul, ORF1ab is one of the viral genes (along with the N gene) that is checked for in the PCR test. The PCR test just checks to see if it’s there, however if we sequence the entire virus, we see variations in the sequence. Most of these are of no consequence, some could be and are kept under observation. So the different variants get given a name and if they turn up somewhere else, then it helps track the spread of the virus. The worry with this one is that is has a few changes that theoretically could influence how infectious it might be, but we really don’t have a definitive answer on that yet. 

[Paul ™]

4 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Hi Paul, ORF1ab is one of the viral genes (along with the N gene) that is checked for in the PCR test. The PCR test just checks to see if it’s there, however if we sequence the entire virus, we see variations in the sequence. Most of these are of no consequence, some could be and are kept under observation. So the different variants get given a name and if they turn up somewhere else, then it helps track the spread of the virus. The worry with this one is that is has a few changes that theoretically could influence how infectious it might be, but we really don’t have a definitive answer on that yet. 

Thanks very much for explaining that, I get it now. Cheers 

[Toilet Duck]

2 minutes ago, Copperface said:

The NHS is complicated, but basically it comes down to money and public funding...

This years flu programme is aimed at twice the normal number, looking at about 25 million but take up is obviously different to that number. The 2 shot covid programme is on top of that.

There are supply issues with both at the moment. This delivery will ramp up over time but at the moment we are only getting about 140,00 per week based on the last two weeks figures - this will though increase substantially when AZ comes on stream.

So any projections have inbuilt slippage. Even based on a million per week, there is a current shortfall of 840,000 per week to add on to any projections. I'd think think that all going well, we might be up to full delivery capacity end of January?

42 mass vax hubs delivering between 2-5000 jabs per day each - about a million per week

1200 PCN hubs plus others  delivering about 1000 each per week= 1.2 million per week. 

So around two million may possibly be feasible, That's still 25 weeks. Clearly this is a bit elastic as so many variables are baked in. But that scale of rollout on top of the flu programme is going to take time.

 

Will there be much flu vaccination going on in March/April though? I remember trying to get one in March one year as I was starting a new job in a cancer centre and could only find one GP in Dublin with any left! 

[Crazyfool01]

4 minutes ago, Copperface said:

This years flu programme is aimed at twice the normal number, looking at about 25 million but take up is obviously different to that number. The 2 shot covid programme is on top of that.

the 2 shot programme of vaccine is not going to have much overlap with the flu vaccine ... maybe a few weeks but mostly the flu jabs are done and dusted now ... so they can go full steam at the covid jabs ? 

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Will there be much flu vaccination going on in March/April though? I remember trying to get one in March one year as I was starting a new job in a cancer centre and could only find one GP in Dublin with any left! 

🙂 

[efcfanwirral]

9 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

The R0 of this new variant must be fucking huge if it’s causing this many cases despite fucking draconian restrictions. 

I reckon the changed behaviour around Christmas is at least some part of this - all the additional shopping (and associated journeys) and most likely socialising will contribute to an extent, like I would expect even with this variant if this was October say it wouldn't be quite as bad. But it's still very very bad