When will this shit end?

[Toilet Duck]

19 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I believe that they can never fully tell when the results will be ready because you need to have all the trial members go out into society until a certain number have tested positive - and you just hope that they all, or at least the vast majority, come from the placebo group. So you’re effectively waiting for people to test positive and you never know exactly how long it will take. I think that’s how it works but @Toilet Duck can hopefully confirm 

Yep, read this after I replied to your other question...pretty much all the trials are powered the same way. 15,000 people in each group, vaccine vs control. They need 150 or so events (infections) in the control arm to find a statistically significant difference in the vaccinated arm (and they pitched this as 50% effective, but are probably hoping for better...that would be enough for the vaccine to be useful though). So, about 1% of the people in the control arm of the trill need to get infected before they reach their primary endpoint. They will get a signal before that though, so based on that, it's up to the regulators whether they want to take that and the phase 1, phase 2 and pre-clinical data and issue an emergency use authorisation (which will ball this vaccines get until there is longer follow up). 

[st dan]

The Simpsons once again predicting the future - this time with yesterday’s Presidential debate. 

[Toilet Duck]

10 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

I've been following this subject (like most on here) pretty intently for the last 6 months and this is the first time anyone has explained the test is run twice! If Hancock, when questioned had just said "we run the test twice to minimise any errors" there would be much less room for speculation and suspicion. thanks again for all your info.

Yeah, it's a technicality, but one that makes a huge difference. Its standard practice when running any PCR, not just this one. The problem is the politicians understand neither statistics or molecular biology! 

 

edit: if you are even vaguely interested (you are probably not!), here's the protocol used for testing. its pretty dense, but how the matrices are constructed is described on pages 4 and 5. 

Edited September 30, 2020 by Toilet Duck

[DeanoL]

 

2 hours ago, Homer said:

Speaker stepped in and reminded Johnson ‘it’s PMQs, not leader of the opposition Qs’

Maybe that's what we need. Right after PMQs, it's half an hour of people quizzing the leader of the opposition. Then people could actually see the difference between answering an evading a question.

1 hour ago, gizmoman said:

I quoted Hancock because he has stated the less than 1% figure, if it was less than 0.1% i'm sure he would have said. (not that I believe a word he says!) My posts are at odds with what most on here think, in my view the reaction to this has been far in excess of what was needed, in short, the cure is worse than the disease, there is a tendency on this thread to micro analyse the daily figures, graphs etc. and it's easy to get an inflated fear of the disease and ignore all the other problems the lockdowns and restrictions are causing. We need to look at the bigger picture and the long term harm being done (health & economy) I'm not particularly concerned for my own situation, but I am worried for my kids future and the future for society in general, particularly civil liberties, the government have passed a law which gives them far more powers than is necessary to deal with this problem and they now cannot be held to account by either their own MPs or the public via protest. Once governments take on new powers they are usually loath to let them go. Am I paranoid? Maybe, but as they saying goes, just because you're paranoid, doesn't mean they're not after you!

I'm all in favour of safeguards to protect those civil liberties. I do believe that the government could well attempt to keep them and abuse them in the future. I just don't think that means we don't need these measures now. Like, the answer to your concerns is not to just let coronavirus run rampant. 

But it's also worth considering what would happen if we did just let the virus run its course. What impact would that have on the economy? And health? Like beyond just masses of people dead? Would anyone ever come on holiday here again? What about all those jobs tied up in dealing with an elderly population, that are now mostly dead? What about the new laws the government inevitably pass giving them rights to enter homes to clear out dead bodies, etc.

I get what you're saying, but you're assuming the only trade-off for the current economic damage is a relatively large number of deaths, mostly elderly. And if just accepted that was going to happen, we could have life back exactly as it was before. But that's not the case at all.

[JoeyT]

5 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Yep, read this after I replied to your other question...pretty much all the trials are powered the same way. 15,000 people in each group, vaccine vs control. They need 150 or so events (infections) in the control arm to find a statistically significant difference in the vaccinated arm (and they pitched this as 50% effective, but are probably hoping for better...that would be enough for the vaccine to be useful though). So, about 1% of the people in the control arm of the trill need to get infected before they reach their primary endpoint. They will get a signal before that though, so based on that, it's up to the regulators whether they want to take that and the phase 1, phase 2 and pre-clinical data and issue an emergency use authorisation (which will ball this vaccines get until there is longer follow up). 

So October is realistic or optimistic for progress?

Would it be wildest fantasy to say the Oxford vaccine gets emergency use authorisation  by the end of October? How quick following this thumbs up will we see it being distributed?

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

So October is realistic or optimistic for progress?

Would it be wildest fantasy to say the Oxford vaccine gets emergency use authorisation  by the end of October? How quick following this thumbs up will we see it being distributed?

I know that pauses in trials are commonplace, but I'm starting to get worried by how long it's been suspended in the states, even as new trials begin in other countries.   

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I know that pauses in trials are commonplace, but I'm starting to get worried by how long it's been suspended in the states, even as new trials begin in other countries.   

The New York Times seem to think the Oxford vaccine is on its final warning, and that it isn’t the favourite to win the race anymore 

[eFestivals]

34 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

...and how would they be distributed, globally?

there's a WHO plan that most countries (not Trump tho) have signed up to for distribution.

The first batch (of whatever vaccine) is predicted for December, to give each country the vaccine for 3% of the population.

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I know that pauses in trials are commonplace, but I'm starting to get worried by how long it's been suspended in the states, even as new trials begin in other countries.   

other vaccines are available.

[Toilet Duck]

5 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

So October is realistic or optimistic for progress?

Would it be wildest fantasy to say the Oxford vaccine gets emergency use authorisation  by the end of October? How quick following this thumbs up will we see it being distributed?

Not impossible, if they start recruiting up in the North of England they'll be home and hosed in no time (just kidding!). The Pfizer and Moderna trials are built the same way, so they will both have earlier data, but the early Oxford trial data will be from an interim analysis that is further along in the trial, so should be a bit more reliable. It's impossible to say when these will happen though (indeed, all of the trials envisage recruiting about 30,000 participants, but their trial protocols allow for more to be recruited should they need them if infection rates in the control arms are insufficient). The actual vaccines are being made now, so there are millions of doses being produced, ready to roll out as soon as they get the green light from regulators. Not impossible that front line workers and highly vulnerable individuals will be offered some or all of these vaccines early next year (different vaccines in different jurisdictions if they somehow all became available at similar times). Will take some time for mass vaccination at a population level though (and if protecting frontline and vulnerable populations is sufficient, may never be rolled out on a population-wide basis). 

[Crazyfool01]

@FestivalJamie what did you decide ? have you stayed put ? or gone ?

[FestivalJamie]

19 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

@FestivalJamie what did you decide ? have you stayed put ? or gone ?

Hey. Sorry I haven’t been in touch/online for so long!

Ive had a pretty bleak few days mentally. My levels of stress and anxiety have gone through the roof and to be honest I’ve been bordering on feeling like I have some sort of depression I don’t know what’s going on.

Going to uni right now for me would be like going from one extreme to the other. I’ve barely been going out and exposing myself to the virus so to go to uni and be in the most “risky” scenario possible would push my anxiety through the roof. But I live at home with my parents and my relationship with my dad isn’t good and he’s not happy that I’ve deferred for another year. So I found myself a job which starts next Saturday and hopefully I can do that and start living up to my fears against this virus but build into it gradually rather than dive into the deep end. I’m considering moving into a relatives for a bit as well just to improve my mental health because the dynamic at home isn’t good and it constantly leaves me feeling down or lonely or depressed.

Long story short, I’ve decided to defer my place to next year. I don’t lose any money if I do it now and don’t have to reapply for next year, just guaranteed a spot on the same course in the same uni for next September, when hopefully life can be more normal again, and I can make the most of uni and actually want to socialise and make friends.

Edited September 30, 2020 by FestivalJamie

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Hey. Sorry I haven’t been in touch/online for so long!

Ive has a pretty bleak few days mentally. My levels of stress and anxiety have gone through the roof and to be honest I’ve been bordering on feeling like I have some sort of depression I don’t know what’s going on.

Going to uni right now for me would be like going from one extreme to the other. I’ve barely been going out and exposing myself to the virus so to go to uni and be in the most “risky” scenario possible would push my anxiety through the roof. But I live at home with my parents and my relationship with my dad isn’t good and he’s not happy that I’ve deferred for another year. So I found myself a job which starts next Saturday and hopefully I can do that and start living up to my fears against this virus but build into it gradually rather than dive into the deep end. I’m considering moving into a relatives for a bit as well just to improve my mental health because the dynamic at home isn’t good and it constantly leaves me feeling down or lonely or depressed.

Long story short, I’ve decided to defer my place to next year. I don’t lose any money if I do it now and don’t have to reapply for next year, just guaranteed a spot on the same course in the same uni for next September, when hopefully life can be more normal again, and I can make the most of uni and actually want to socialise and make friends.

A decent decision I would say ... the virus seems to have impacted you significantly from your posts and going to uni might have gone either way ... it might have been an opportunity to forget things and  try and move on a little from this bloody thing but might have also caused some upset whilst your fellow students enjoyed a little more socialising than you might have been comfortable with .... I think moving out would be a good call though ... it does make people experience life a little more and may give you a bit of a distraction and focus along with the new job work will also give an opportunity for new friends too but no forced socialising so hopefully the loneliness will diminish too .... all the best on the new job , what are you doing ?

[ace56blaa]

Have we talked about how the testing figures have changed since reported yesterday and been renamed pcr tests processed. 

I swear it was 198,000 tests processed when reported yesterday.

[squirrelarmy]

5 minutes ago, ace56blaa said:

I swear it was 198,000 tests processed when reported yesterday.

They found 30,000 tests down the back of the sofa. 

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, squirrelarmy said:

They found 30,000 tests down the back of the sofa. 

dido harding had stored some data for a rainy day 

[efcfanwirral]

23 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Hey. Sorry I haven’t been in touch/online for so long!

Ive had a pretty bleak few days mentally. My levels of stress and anxiety have gone through the roof and to be honest I’ve been bordering on feeling like I have some sort of depression I don’t know what’s going on.

Going to uni right now for me would be like going from one extreme to the other. I’ve barely been going out and exposing myself to the virus so to go to uni and be in the most “risky” scenario possible would push my anxiety through the roof. But I live at home with my parents and my relationship with my dad isn’t good and he’s not happy that I’ve deferred for another year. So I found myself a job which starts next Saturday and hopefully I can do that and start living up to my fears against this virus but build into it gradually rather than dive into the deep end. I’m considering moving into a relatives for a bit as well just to improve my mental health because the dynamic at home isn’t good and it constantly leaves me feeling down or lonely or depressed.

Long story short, I’ve decided to defer my place to next year. I don’t lose any money if I do it now and don’t have to reapply for next year, just guaranteed a spot on the same course in the same uni for next September, when hopefully life can be more normal again, and I can make the most of uni and actually want to socialise and make friends.

I think you've made the right decision personally. You do end up making friends at uni but only in the right circumstances- I don't think these are. 

I wouldve done the same thing if i was in that situation

[ace56blaa]

2 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

They found 30,000 tests down the back of the sofa. 

Hope it just means the data was updated but I have little faith they a delivering as many tests as they say, considering they already have a record of fluffing the numbers to meet targets

[steviewevie]

26 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Hey. Sorry I haven’t been in touch/online for so long!

Ive has a pretty bleak few days mentally. My levels of stress and anxiety have gone through the roof and to be honest I’ve been bordering on feeling like I have some sort of depression I don’t know what’s going on.

Going to uni right now for me would be like going from one extreme to the other. I’ve barely been going out and exposing myself to the virus so to go to uni and be in the most “risky” scenario possible would push my anxiety through the roof. But I live at home with my parents and my relationship with my dad isn’t good and he’s not happy that I’ve deferred for another year. So I found myself a job which starts next Saturday and hopefully I can do that and start living up to my fears against this virus but build into it gradually rather than dive into the deep end. I’m considering moving into a relatives for a bit as well just to improve my mental health because the dynamic at home isn’t good and it constantly leaves me feeling down or lonely or depressed.

Long story short, I’ve decided to defer my place to next year. I don’t lose any money if I do it now and don’t have to reapply for next year, just guaranteed a spot on the same course in the same uni for next September, when hopefully life can be more normal again, and I can make the most of uni and actually want to socialise and make friends.

Sounds like a good decision to me...if I was in your shoes I'd probably try and defer too. Well done on finding work.

[funkychick2007]

@FestivalJamie sounds like an informed decision which you have made!! Deferring for a year gives you a year of new opportunities to explore and experience! You never know what these opportunities will open for you!! 
Family and life dynamics play an important part and finding a settled place within these will help reduce your anxiety and increase your resilience!! 
Enjoy your new job and the future ahead of you!! 

[steviewevie]

are we going to play guess the case numbers again?

[Freddyflintstonree]

7,108

[Crazyfool01]

oh and @FestivalJamie and anyone else on this thread .... @Toilet Duck feel free to join  our virtual efest meets ... they are lots of fun .... we have 2 this weekend on fri and Sat starting at 7pm on zoom .... link will be posted closer to the time .... be good to virtually meet all of you 

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

are we going to play guess the case numbers again?

8741

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

8741

8740