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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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Johnson & cabinet may have played it wisely to allow some slightly more cautious stuff to be leaked out initially, and then come through with a plan which appears more optimistic.

And/or, the recent barrage of good news on vaccine efficacy may have moved the goalposts a little in the last couple of days.

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2 minutes ago, BobWillis said:

Exactly this. There has yet to be a variant that causes severe disease and death in vaccinated people and there’s no reason to believe that will happen. 
Apparently understanding that means you want people to die. 

Out of curiosity, for what motive do you think the government is going so slow?

What's their angle here in damaging the economy, to your mind unnecessarily, and which is the main thing people judge any government on?

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Just now, hodgey123 said:

Like the optimism of some thinking the briefs are a bit pessimistic and the actual roadmap will be more positive. I don’t think there’s been any precedent for this approach in the pandemic to date though ie the briefs have been accurate?

I think the most recent briefs are probably pretty accurate - guessing they're coming 2nd or 3rd hand via ministers who were in the final planning meetings today.

I think the prior leaks were less positive partly as they were based on now outdated and superseded data regarding vaccines.

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6 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

Like the optimism of some thinking the briefs are a bit pessimistic and the actual roadmap will be more positive. I don’t think there’s been any precedent for this approach in the pandemic to date though ie the briefs have been accurate?

It’s not accurate until Gove is halfway through his first packet and starts blabbing it all to Peston. 

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The only thing I would add here is that the vaccines all have excellent protection against severe disease, hospitalisation and death, irrespective of the variant...however, for asymptomatic, mild and moderate disease, they have varying efficacy depending on the variant involved. I’m not worried about variants entirely evading our immune response post-vaccination, but classifying moderate Covid as “the sniffles” isn’t entirely accurate! It’s not necessarily going to frighten the life out of you, but it’s more uncomfortable than a mild case and these cases are exactly the people that are having ongoing issues. Latest report in JAMA has about 30% of moderate cases (treated as outpatients) with ongoing symptoms 6 months later (still a limited study though), so we do need to play this carefully (with the option of accelerating if things go ok...it’s not something that keeps us shut down indefinitely, but it is unknown)...the finish line is in sight, don’t drop the baton! 
 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2776560

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41 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

The problem with this approach is it is potentially never ending. We cannot control the speed at which other countries vaccinate and therefore cannot control the likelihood of variants emerging, and we also cannot permanently close our borders and ban international travel to prevent any variants being imported. It would be a constant race between virus and vaccine which would not end until zero COVID worldwide is achieved. There is also no guarantee that the virus mutates further. Therefore to keep heavy restrictions to protect against this is disproportionate. 

still early days...so right to be cautious at this point...until we understand more about variants and vaccines required etc.

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