gigpusher Posted April 1, 2022 Report Share Posted April 1, 2022 19 minutes ago, DirtyLurker said: <phew> so pleased it's not all my fault 😉 but also feel a fool thinking spring was here 😅 Yep no mistake that was foolish 😄 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sedra Posted April 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 2, 2022 Last weekend was in a T-shirt and 17C - this week we had snow and it’s 3C and back to boots and heavy coat!🙄 and it’s Spring! Weather - don’t you just love it! 😎🥶🥵 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BambooShanks Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 Long term forecast update! The festival itself is looking pretty good being relatively warm and only a drizzle of rain forecasted so far. Unfortunately the build up doesn't look as nice. There's only 10 days without any rain forecasted from the 22nd of April till the gates opening. Some of those days are less than 1mm but there's a handful of heavy downpours forecasted as well. I don't want to say it's going to be a repeat of 2016 but it's not looking great so far. On the positive side, the outlook can (and will!) improve a lot as we get closer so hopefully the forecasts I'm seeing at the moment are outliers and wall to wall sunshine will come back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Nal Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, BambooShanks said: Unfortunately the build up doesn't look as nice. There's only 10 days without any rain forecasted from the 22nd of April till the gates opening. Some of those days are less than 1mm but there's a handful of heavy downpours forecasted as well. I don't want to say it's going to be a repeat of 2016 but it's not looking great so far. And with rain due nearly everyday in April its very very worrying indeed. Oh dear. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rubick Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 Looks like I picked the wrong year to quit kayaking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steviewevie Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 1 hour ago, BambooShanks said: Long term forecast update! The festival itself is looking pretty good being relatively warm and only a drizzle of rain forecasted so far. Unfortunately the build up doesn't look as nice. There's only 10 days without any rain forecasted from the 22nd of April till the gates opening. Some of those days are less than 1mm but there's a handful of heavy downpours forecasted as well. I don't want to say it's going to be a repeat of 2016 but it's not looking great so far. On the positive side, the outlook can (and will!) improve a lot as we get closer so hopefully the forecasts I'm seeing at the moment are outliers and wall to wall sunshine will come back. are you seriously looking at forecasts already?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BambooShanks Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, steviewevie said: are you seriously looking at forecasts already?! ....would you believe me if I said no? I tend to have a look at them every few days. While I know anything past 2 weeks isn't going to be accurate, it's good* to see what the trends are looking like and what kind of rainfall the site might get in the 6 weeks preceding the festival. *or worryingly obsessive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steviewevie Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, BambooShanks said: ....would you believe me if I said no? I tend to have a look at them every few days. While I know anything past 2 weeks isn't going to be accurate, it's good* to see what the trends are looking like and what kind of rainfall the site might get in the 6 weeks preceding the festival. *or worryingly obsessive oh. ok. I did see this long range forecast thing on netweather...all a bit technical but I think beyond a certain time frame they just look at past years in same cycle of La Nina to see what we could expect...only goes up to end of May and it's saying mild and unsettled for that month.. https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/seasonal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leath02 Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 On 4/1/2022 at 10:53 AM, jimmillen said: We always obsess over the state of the ground & rain in the run-up to the festival. So I thought I’d try & work out how much difference this really makes. 🤓 Here’s some data from Yeovilton weather station - obviously not the festival microclimate, but monthly rainfall should be pretty close. First, wet years: Now dry(ish): And finally the average of muddy v dry: So basically, it’s all about what happens in June. Muddy years have tended to have more rainfall in the preceding months, but it’s the weather around the immediate time of the festival that counts. State of the ground may be less significant than we thought! 😂 Sadly though it means we also shouldn’t be too excited that Jan & Feb rainfall so far is well below average… ETA: If I can be bothered I might have a look at day-by-day data for June, if I can find it. By the looks of it when it rains in June is critical - 2019 for example had an above average rainfall for the month as a whole, but I think it must have been early in the month? As someone who usually obsesses over the weather many moons before any significant event in my life, this post gave me hope to hold off until at least May 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmillen Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 20 minutes ago, leath02 said: As someone who usually obsesses over the weather many moons before any significant event in my life, this post gave me hope to hold off until at least May Honestly, I'm the same 😂 But it's pretty futile! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiZuff Posted April 11, 2022 Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 On 4/1/2022 at 10:53 AM, jimmillen said: We always obsess over the state of the ground & rain in the run-up to the festival. So I thought I’d try & work out how much difference this really makes. 🤓 Here’s some data from Yeovilton weather station - obviously not the festival microclimate, but monthly rainfall should be pretty close. First, wet years: Now dry(ish): And finally the average of muddy v dry: So basically, it’s all about what happens in June. Muddy years have tended to have more rainfall in the preceding months, but it’s the weather around the immediate time of the festival that counts. State of the ground may be less significant than we thought! 😂 Sadly though it means we also shouldn’t be too excited that Jan & Feb rainfall so far is well below average… ETA: If I can be bothered I might have a look at day-by-day data for June, if I can find it. By the looks of it when it rains in June is critical - 2019 for example had an above average rainfall for the month as a whole, but I think it must have been early in the month? sorry if i missed this but how do i see this years total rainfall from the same weather station? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmillen Posted April 11, 2022 Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 (edited) 14 minutes ago, TiZuff said: sorry if i missed this but how do i see this years total rainfall from the same weather station? C’est ici: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/yeoviltondata.txt Needs copying and pasting into Excel to do anything useful with it. Also it’s only full months, so not an accurate measure when we’re mid-month. Edited April 11, 2022 by jimmillen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leyrulion Posted April 11, 2022 Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 (edited) Peak 2020 lockdown I made a note of the forecast and actual weather. If these notes are accurate 2020 could have been a trickster, just beautiful enough in the beginning to make you pack less but full mud by Sunday. Actual Wednesday 24th : 28 sunny and very warm (forecast: Thursday 30, Friday 23, Saturday 19 and rain, Sunday 19) Thursday 25th: 30 sunny and very warm (forecast: Friday 23 and thunderstorm, Saturday 19 (rain 64%), 18 sunny with cloud) Friday 26th: 22. Sunny, no cloud in day. Small shower at 6am, nothing major.Slight evening cloud (Forecast: Saturday 20 (rain 65%), Sunday 18 rain (40%)) Saturday 27th: 18. Cloudy and showers all day. (Rain: 2-4, drizzle, 8-9, 9pm) (forecast Sunday 18, cloudy drizzle all day) Sunday 28th: 19. Rain at 12. Cloudy all day. Feel like temp colder than yesterday. Edited April 11, 2022 by Leyrulion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blutarsky Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 3 hours ago, Leyrulion said: Peak 2020 lockdown I made a note of the forecast and actual weather. If these notes are accurate 2020 could have been a trickster, just beautiful enough in the beginning to make you pack less but full mud by Sunday. Actual Wednesday 24th : 28 sunny and very warm (forecast: Thursday 30, Friday 23, Saturday 19 and rain, Sunday 19) Thursday 25th: 30 sunny and very warm (forecast: Friday 23 and thunderstorm, Saturday 19 (rain 64%), 18 sunny with cloud) Friday 26th: 22. Sunny, no cloud in day. Small shower at 6am, nothing major.Slight evening cloud (Forecast: Saturday 20 (rain 65%), Sunday 18 rain (40%)) Saturday 27th: 18. Cloudy and showers all day. (Rain: 2-4, drizzle, 8-9, 9pm) (forecast Sunday 18, cloudy drizzle all day) Sunday 28th: 19. Rain at 12. Cloudy all day. Feel like temp colder than yesterday. I don’t think it would have been full mud but 2020 would have been very windy. We did glasthomebury and Friday night it pissed it down, then we had high winds all weekend. We’re on the path of prevailing winds headed to the site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leath02 Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 As someone who's only experienced the glorious 2019 sun... The question is - just how much rain on any of the festival days does it actually require for it to become a mud bath? Remeber even in 2019 looking at the areas around the taps, and being amazed how churned up they were, despite the constant heat... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suprefan Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 (edited) 12 minutes ago, leath02 said: As someone who's only experienced the glorious 2019 sun... The question is - just how much rain on any of the festival days does it actually require for it to become a mud bath? Remeber even in 2019 looking at the areas around the taps, and being amazed how churned up they were, despite the constant heat... It needs to piss down for like an hour during high foot traffic times to make mud initially. In 2017 it rained a bit middle of the night and then at 4am which is fine. Saturday night it also rained very late into the early morning pre sunrise. Edited April 12, 2022 by Suprefan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heather90 Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 9 hours ago, Leyrulion said: Peak 2020 lockdown I made a note of the forecast and actual weather. If these notes are accurate 2020 could have been a trickster, just beautiful enough in the beginning to make you pack less but full mud by Sunday. Actual Wednesday 24th : 28 sunny and very warm (forecast: Thursday 30, Friday 23, Saturday 19 and rain, Sunday 19) Thursday 25th: 30 sunny and very warm (forecast: Friday 23 and thunderstorm, Saturday 19 (rain 64%), 18 sunny with cloud) Friday 26th: 22. Sunny, no cloud in day. Small shower at 6am, nothing major.Slight evening cloud (Forecast: Saturday 20 (rain 65%), Sunday 18 rain (40%)) Saturday 27th: 18. Cloudy and showers all day. (Rain: 2-4, drizzle, 8-9, 9pm) (forecast Sunday 18, cloudy drizzle all day) Sunday 28th: 19. Rain at 12. Cloudy all day. Feel like temp colder than yesterday. Wednesday and particularly Thursday would be brutal for me. I really struggle once we get to the high 20s. Added to that those are the days you need to walk most/carry most. In 2017 I had a Thursday coach ticket but my friend who grew up Brazil was really struggling Wednesday. I'd take it over a mudbath but high teens/low 20s of the weekend there look perfect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deebeedoobee Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 10 hours ago, Leyrulion said: Peak 2020 lockdown I made a note of the forecast and actual weather. If these notes are accurate 2020 could have been a trickster, just beautiful enough in the beginning to make you pack less but full mud by Sunday. Actual Wednesday 24th : 28 sunny and very warm (forecast: Thursday 30, Friday 23, Saturday 19 and rain, Sunday 19) Thursday 25th: 30 sunny and very warm (forecast: Friday 23 and thunderstorm, Saturday 19 (rain 64%), 18 sunny with cloud) Friday 26th: 22. Sunny, no cloud in day. Small shower at 6am, nothing major.Slight evening cloud (Forecast: Saturday 20 (rain 65%), Sunday 18 rain (40%)) Saturday 27th: 18. Cloudy and showers all day. (Rain: 2-4, drizzle, 8-9, 9pm) (forecast Sunday 18, cloudy drizzle all day) Sunday 28th: 19. Rain at 12. Cloudy all day. Feel like temp colder than yesterday. Where were these readings taken? On site? Or in the general area? Pilton can be very different to Shepton and the surrounding towns according to weather predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robofish Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 On 4/1/2022 at 10:56 AM, Punksnotdead said: I've just had another flashback from 98: Just off the pathway as you walked into the Other stage from the Pyramid, there was a big hole in the ground that just looked like another puddle. There was always a group of lads standing near it. Every few minutes someone would inadvertently step into it & disappear up to their waist (like that famous scene from vicar of dibley). The group of lads would then wildly cheer - the bastards! 😄 Oh wow. I was one of their victims. I thought they’d removed a manhole cover, but maybe not. I had brown jeans for the rest of the festival. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilton digger Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, deebeedoobee said: Where were these readings taken? On site? Or in the general area? Pilton can be very different to Shepton and the surrounding towns according to weather predictions. Using Yeovilton as data has got to be for comedy value surely. Comparing apples and bicycles there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leyrulion Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 35 minutes ago, deebeedoobee said: Where were these readings taken? On site? Or in the general area? Pilton can be very different to Shepton and the surrounding towns according to weather predictions. It would have been the forecast for pilton itself mixed with radar tracking for the rain. Obviously take with an enormous pinch of Salt! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squirrelarmy Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 What effect does a city sized population of CO2 emissions have on the local climate? Does the volume of people in a small localised area affect the weather? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rubick Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 1 minute ago, squirrelarmy said: What effect does a city sized population of CO2 emissions have on the local climate? Does the volume of people in a small localised area affect the weather? If everyone at Glastonbury jumps up into the air at the same time a cloud forms upon landing. This is why pogo sticks are banned aside from the Circus. Don't bother fact checking this, it's definitely a real thing that happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deebeedoobee Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 45 minutes ago, Leyrulion said: It would have been the forecast for pilton itself mixed with radar tracking for the rain. Obviously take with an enormous pinch of Salt! That figures. I’ve just looked back at 2020 and I did report the actual weather here in Pilton. They got the Saturday and Sunday weather wrong. But then they never are prefect. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barneym Posted April 14, 2022 Report Share Posted April 14, 2022 When do we get the first long range forecasts (and yes I know it’s pointless until a week before but it’s glorious in London today and my mind is not on work!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.