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The Weather Thread 2022


sedra

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Long term forecast update!

The festival itself is looking pretty good being relatively warm and only a drizzle of rain forecasted so far.

Unfortunately the build up doesn't look as nice.  There's only 10 days without any rain forecasted from the 22nd of April till the gates opening.  Some of those days are less than 1mm but there's a handful of heavy downpours forecasted as well.

I don't want to say it's going to be a repeat of 2016 but it's not looking great so far.  

 

On the positive side, the outlook can (and will!) improve a lot as we get closer so hopefully the forecasts I'm seeing at the moment are outliers and wall to wall sunshine will come back.

 

 

image.thumb.png.a0f486feaa187fe70310f487d4c2ff9b.png

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2 minutes ago, BambooShanks said:

Unfortunately the build up doesn't look as nice.  There's only 10 days without any rain forecasted from the 22nd of April till the gates opening.  Some of those days are less than 1mm but there's a handful of heavy downpours forecasted as well.

I don't want to say it's going to be a repeat of 2016 but it's not looking great so far.  

And with rain due nearly everyday in April its very very worrying indeed. 

Oh dear.

 

Capture.png

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1 hour ago, BambooShanks said:

Long term forecast update!

The festival itself is looking pretty good being relatively warm and only a drizzle of rain forecasted so far.

Unfortunately the build up doesn't look as nice.  There's only 10 days without any rain forecasted from the 22nd of April till the gates opening.  Some of those days are less than 1mm but there's a handful of heavy downpours forecasted as well.

I don't want to say it's going to be a repeat of 2016 but it's not looking great so far.  

 

On the positive side, the outlook can (and will!) improve a lot as we get closer so hopefully the forecasts I'm seeing at the moment are outliers and wall to wall sunshine will come back.

 

 

image.thumb.png.a0f486feaa187fe70310f487d4c2ff9b.png

are you seriously looking at forecasts already?!

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6 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

are you seriously looking at forecasts already?!

....would you believe me if I said no?

 

I tend to have a look at them every few days.  While I know anything past 2 weeks isn't going to be accurate, it's good* to see what the trends are looking like and what kind of rainfall the site might get in the 6 weeks preceding the festival.

 

 

*or  worryingly obsessive

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12 minutes ago, BambooShanks said:

....would you believe me if I said no?

 

I tend to have a look at them every few days.  While I know anything past 2 weeks isn't going to be accurate, it's good* to see what the trends are looking like and what kind of rainfall the site might get in the 6 weeks preceding the festival.

 

 

*or  worryingly obsessive

oh. ok. I did see this long range forecast thing on netweather...all a bit technical but I think beyond a certain time frame they just look at past years in same cycle of La Nina to see what we could expect...only goes up to end of May and it's saying mild and unsettled for that month..

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/seasonal

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On 4/1/2022 at 10:53 AM, jimmillen said:

We always obsess over the state of the ground & rain in the run-up to the festival. So I thought I’d try & work out how much difference this really makes. 🤓

Here’s some data from Yeovilton weather station - obviously not the festival microclimate, but monthly rainfall should be pretty close. 

First, wet years:

52539C9F-3EE4-4AE7-94AF-1679756BC3ED.thumb.png.b98366e58c27202ab431e91d3ccadb55.png

Now dry(ish):

B4E695C4-1C37-4778-BCDF-2F2027B31CBE.thumb.png.0e767e45d3fd52856c6a16429898e2cd.png

And finally the average of muddy v dry:

4BCC293D-00A2-4A1E-A59A-C0EBC3229688.thumb.png.00f8446e910ecf5af5caf9ba00635e8b.png

So basically, it’s all about what happens in June.

Muddy years have tended to have more rainfall in the preceding months, but it’s the weather around the immediate time of the festival that counts. 

State of the ground may be less significant than we thought! 😂

Sadly though it means we also shouldn’t be too excited that Jan & Feb rainfall so far is well below average…

ETA: If I can be bothered I might have a look at day-by-day data for June, if I can find it. By the looks of it when it rains in June is critical - 2019 for example had an above average rainfall for the month as a whole, but I think it must have been early in the month?

As someone who usually obsesses over the weather many moons before any significant event in my life, this post gave me hope to hold off until at least May

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On 4/1/2022 at 10:53 AM, jimmillen said:

We always obsess over the state of the ground & rain in the run-up to the festival. So I thought I’d try & work out how much difference this really makes. 🤓

Here’s some data from Yeovilton weather station - obviously not the festival microclimate, but monthly rainfall should be pretty close. 

First, wet years:

52539C9F-3EE4-4AE7-94AF-1679756BC3ED.thumb.png.b98366e58c27202ab431e91d3ccadb55.png

Now dry(ish):

B4E695C4-1C37-4778-BCDF-2F2027B31CBE.thumb.png.0e767e45d3fd52856c6a16429898e2cd.png

And finally the average of muddy v dry:

4BCC293D-00A2-4A1E-A59A-C0EBC3229688.thumb.png.00f8446e910ecf5af5caf9ba00635e8b.png

So basically, it’s all about what happens in June.

Muddy years have tended to have more rainfall in the preceding months, but it’s the weather around the immediate time of the festival that counts. 

State of the ground may be less significant than we thought! 😂

Sadly though it means we also shouldn’t be too excited that Jan & Feb rainfall so far is well below average…

ETA: If I can be bothered I might have a look at day-by-day data for June, if I can find it. By the looks of it when it rains in June is critical - 2019 for example had an above average rainfall for the month as a whole, but I think it must have been early in the month?

sorry if i missed this but how do i see this years total rainfall from the same weather station?

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14 minutes ago, TiZuff said:

sorry if i missed this but how do i see this years total rainfall from the same weather station?

C’est ici:  https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/yeoviltondata.txt

Needs copying and pasting into Excel to do anything useful with it. Also it’s only full months, so not an accurate measure when we’re mid-month. 

Edited by jimmillen
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Peak 2020 lockdown I made a note of the forecast and actual weather. 

If these notes are accurate 2020 could have been a trickster, just beautiful enough in the beginning to make you pack less but full mud by Sunday.

 

Actual 

Wednesday 24th : 28 sunny and very warm

(forecast: Thursday 30, Friday 23,  Saturday 19 and rain, Sunday 19)

 

Thursday 25th: 30 sunny and very warm

(forecast: Friday 23 and thunderstorm, Saturday 19 (rain 64%), 18 sunny with cloud)

 

Friday 26th: 22. Sunny, no cloud in day. Small shower at 6am, nothing major.Slight evening cloud

(Forecast: Saturday 20 (rain 65%), Sunday 18 rain (40%))

 

Saturday 27th: 18. Cloudy and showers all day. (Rain: 2-4, drizzle, 8-9, 9pm) (forecast Sunday 18, cloudy drizzle all day) 

 

Sunday 28th: 19. Rain at 12. Cloudy all day. Feel like temp colder than yesterday.

Edited by Leyrulion
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3 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

Peak 2020 lockdown I made a note of the forecast and actual weather. 

If these notes are accurate 2020 could have been a trickster, just beautiful enough in the beginning to make you pack less but full mud by Sunday.

 

Actual 

Wednesday 24th : 28 sunny and very warm

(forecast: Thursday 30, Friday 23,  Saturday 19 and rain, Sunday 19)

 

Thursday 25th: 30 sunny and very warm

(forecast: Friday 23 and thunderstorm, Saturday 19 (rain 64%), 18 sunny with cloud)

 

Friday 26th: 22. Sunny, no cloud in day. Small shower at 6am, nothing major.Slight evening cloud

(Forecast: Saturday 20 (rain 65%), Sunday 18 rain (40%))

 

Saturday 27th: 18. Cloudy and showers all day. (Rain: 2-4, drizzle, 8-9, 9pm) (forecast Sunday 18, cloudy drizzle all day) 

 

Sunday 28th: 19. Rain at 12. Cloudy all day. Feel like temp colder than yesterday.

I don’t think it would have been full mud but 2020 would have been very windy. We did glasthomebury and Friday night it pissed it down, then we had high winds all weekend. We’re on the path of prevailing winds headed to the site. 

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As someone who's only experienced the glorious 2019 sun...

The question is - just how much rain on any of the festival days does it actually require for it to become a mud bath?

Remeber even in 2019 looking at the areas around the taps, and being amazed how churned up they were, despite the constant heat...

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12 minutes ago, leath02 said:

As someone who's only experienced the glorious 2019 sun...

The question is - just how much rain on any of the festival days does it actually require for it to become a mud bath?

Remeber even in 2019 looking at the areas around the taps, and being amazed how churned up they were, despite the constant heat...

It needs to piss down for like an hour during high foot traffic times to make mud initially. In 2017 it rained a bit middle of the night and then at 4am which is fine. Saturday night it also rained very late into the early morning pre sunrise. 

Edited by Suprefan
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9 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

Peak 2020 lockdown I made a note of the forecast and actual weather. 

If these notes are accurate 2020 could have been a trickster, just beautiful enough in the beginning to make you pack less but full mud by Sunday.

 

Actual 

Wednesday 24th : 28 sunny and very warm

(forecast: Thursday 30, Friday 23,  Saturday 19 and rain, Sunday 19)

 

Thursday 25th: 30 sunny and very warm

(forecast: Friday 23 and thunderstorm, Saturday 19 (rain 64%), 18 sunny with cloud)

 

Friday 26th: 22. Sunny, no cloud in day. Small shower at 6am, nothing major.Slight evening cloud

(Forecast: Saturday 20 (rain 65%), Sunday 18 rain (40%))

 

Saturday 27th: 18. Cloudy and showers all day. (Rain: 2-4, drizzle, 8-9, 9pm) (forecast Sunday 18, cloudy drizzle all day) 

 

Sunday 28th: 19. Rain at 12. Cloudy all day. Feel like temp colder than yesterday.

Wednesday and particularly Thursday would be brutal for me. I really struggle once we get to the high 20s. Added to that those are the days you need to walk most/carry most. In 2017 I had a Thursday coach ticket but my friend who grew up Brazil was really struggling Wednesday. 

I'd take it over a mudbath but high teens/low 20s of the weekend there look perfect. 

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10 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

Peak 2020 lockdown I made a note of the forecast and actual weather. 

If these notes are accurate 2020 could have been a trickster, just beautiful enough in the beginning to make you pack less but full mud by Sunday.

 

Actual 

Wednesday 24th : 28 sunny and very warm

(forecast: Thursday 30, Friday 23,  Saturday 19 and rain, Sunday 19)

 

Thursday 25th: 30 sunny and very warm

(forecast: Friday 23 and thunderstorm, Saturday 19 (rain 64%), 18 sunny with cloud)

 

Friday 26th: 22. Sunny, no cloud in day. Small shower at 6am, nothing major.Slight evening cloud

(Forecast: Saturday 20 (rain 65%), Sunday 18 rain (40%))

 

Saturday 27th: 18. Cloudy and showers all day. (Rain: 2-4, drizzle, 8-9, 9pm) (forecast Sunday 18, cloudy drizzle all day) 

 

Sunday 28th: 19. Rain at 12. Cloudy all day. Feel like temp colder than yesterday.

Where were these readings taken? On site? Or in the general area? Pilton can be very different to Shepton and the surrounding towns according to weather predictions.

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On 4/1/2022 at 10:56 AM, Punksnotdead said:

I've just had another flashback from 98: 

Just off the pathway as you walked into the Other stage from the Pyramid, there was a big hole in the ground that just looked like another puddle. There was always a group of lads standing near it. Every few minutes someone would inadvertently step into it & disappear up to their waist (like that famous scene from vicar of dibley). The group of lads would then wildly cheer - the bastards! 😄

Oh wow. I was one of their victims. I thought they’d removed a manhole cover, but maybe not. I had brown jeans for the rest of the festival. 

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4 minutes ago, deebeedoobee said:

Where were these readings taken? On site? Or in the general area? Pilton can be very different to Shepton and the surrounding towns according to weather predictions.

Using Yeovilton as data has got to be for comedy value surely. Comparing apples and bicycles there. 

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35 minutes ago, deebeedoobee said:

Where were these readings taken? On site? Or in the general area? Pilton can be very different to Shepton and the surrounding towns according to weather predictions.

It would have been the forecast for pilton itself mixed with radar tracking for the rain. Obviously take with an enormous pinch of Salt! 

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1 minute ago, squirrelarmy said:

What effect does a city sized population of CO2 emissions have on the local climate? Does the volume of people in a small localised area affect the weather?

If everyone at Glastonbury jumps up into the air at the same time a cloud forms upon landing. This is why pogo sticks are banned aside from the Circus. Don't bother fact checking this, it's definitely a real thing that happens.

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45 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

It would have been the forecast for pilton itself mixed with radar tracking for the rain. Obviously take with an enormous pinch of Salt! 

That figures. I’ve just looked back at 2020 and I did report the actual weather here in Pilton. They got the Saturday and Sunday weather wrong. But then they never are prefect.

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