When will this shit end?

[JB15]

There’s a lot of noise about increased cases, and there definitely is. 
 

But are we seeing an increase in hospitalisation or deaths causing the NHS not to cope?

 

I think we’ve all been so focussed on the cases metric, the conversation needs to change to allow a proper assessment of the real risk to the country now. 
 

I’m also very surprised there hasn’t been a drastic increase in vaccinations. 
 

sorry if this has all been covered elsewhere, it’s a long old thread!

[stuartbert two hats]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

these?

Damn you Stevie Weevie!

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, JB15 said:

There’s a lot of noise about increased cases, and there definitely is. 
 

But are we seeing an increase in hospitalisation or deaths causing the NHS not to cope?

 

I think we’ve all been so focussed on the cases metric, the conversation needs to change to allow a proper assessment of the real risk to the country now. 
 

I’m also very surprised there hasn’t been a drastic increase in vaccinations. 
 

sorry if this has all been covered elsewhere, it’s a long old thread!

It's pretty much all we've been talking about for the last couple of weeks! (Well, not the vaccinations increasing)

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, JB15 said:

There’s a lot of noise about increased cases, and there definitely is. 
 

But are we seeing an increase in hospitalisation or deaths causing the NHS not to cope?

 

I think we’ve all been so focussed on the cases metric, the conversation needs to change to allow a proper assessment of the real risk to the country now. 
 

I’m also very surprised there hasn’t been a drastic increase in vaccinations. 
 

sorry if this has all been covered elsewhere, it’s a long old thread!

cases and hospitalisations not been completely decoupled...and there are still plenty of unvaccinated...so they're worried that a big increase in cases of the more transmissible delta variant could lead to a big increase in hospitalisations. Too much uncertainty what risk is at present...and we might need a couple of weeks delay because of that uncertainty.

[danmarks]

53 minutes ago, guypjfreak said:

Just been looking at the infection rates for bmth.. 

They say 50 or so but get this my daughters friends went out to a bar.. I'll not say which but its been closed down because they have had over 90.... 90 positive cases since last week end... 15 of them our friends of my daughter.... 

That my friends is not good... 

But isnt the whole argument at the moment.  People are still catching it - mostly younger cos of vaccines etc but they arent ending up in hospital. So out those 50 if 1 or none ends up in hospital then the numbers bit doesnt affect the nhs.

Apologies if that comes across as insensitive to anyone

[philipsteak]

2 hours ago, JoeyT said:

Interest question - if everything was as it is now data wise and hypothetically Glastonbury was taking place this year & Boris went ahead with June 21st unlocking who would / wouldn’t be attending?

I’d certainly be there.

I would. But I had my second 4 weeks ago. Wonder how I'd feel if I'd only had 1. Probably still yes I think

[zahidf]

59 minutes ago, El Matador said:

I completely agree that June 21st is entirely arbitrary. I'd much rather have seen a genuine "data not dates" approach rather than the approach the government have taken. 

However, given that this is the approach we've got, I can't agree with delaying removing or easing restrictions unless there's clear evidence that there's a credible risk of exceeding NHS capacity. If this time next week that looks credible then by all means delay it. If not then we need to push ahead. 

Well if it was data not dates, we'd have had stuff released well before now.... strange how's it only an excuse for keeping restrictions in and not the other way around 

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Well if it was data not dates, we'd have had stuff released well before now.... strange how's it only an excuse for keeping restrictions in and not the other way around 

To be fair, that was what they said all along.

[Leyrulion]

I asked a while ago about what would be an "acceptable" number of deaths per day, I'm sure the government will have a figure in mind. Publicly it'll be "as low as possible' but that's not 0.

Tens per day, hundreds per day? The number you get to is an indicator of how many infections they think we'll tolerate before postponement of restrictions.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Well if it was data not dates, we'd have had stuff released well before now.... strange how's it only an excuse for keeping restrictions in and not the other way around 

it was in minimum 5 week stages...at each stage look at the data to see if ok to move to the next stage. Irreversible and all that.

[zahidf]

Sadiq Khan is backing a full opening up on 21 June after speaking daily to health officials.

[efcfanwirral]

5 minutes ago, philipsteak said:

I would. But I had my second 4 weeks ago. Wonder how I'd feel if I'd only had 1. Probably still yes I think

My first is going to be booked in for after Glastonbury would've happened (got a week away glasto week and more work than time between now and then, can't risk even a day or two!) - I'd still go 100% in that situation 

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Sadiq Khan is backing a full opening up on 21 June after speaking daily to health officials.

ah, he must know it's not happening.

[aj6658]

1 hour ago, MrBarry465 said:

It's a silly comment - you have no idea what the lay of the land is going to be in a few weeks time and then when the restrictions get lifted. 

They need to get every adult group 18+ fully vaccinated or have offered them vaccinations and that won't be by June 21st. Just get the job done once and do it properly, I have no issues with it being pushed back a few weeks to vaccinate as many as possible.

We really don't have overly intense restrictions at the moment as it is anyway.

Yeah then we need boosters and then we need local winter lockdowns. Better not return to normal till next year 

 

Really don't know how many times I have to say this but

• The vaccines work against all variants - there is no evidence out there that disputes this 
• 99% of deaths are in groups 1-9 which will be double jabbed by 21st June with time to have immune response kick in. 
• Hospitalisations and deaths have not increased. If we are seeing a 3rd wave we would see some sort of major uptick. 
  • Deaths - hovering around 1-2 a day 
  • Hospitalisations are actually down over the 7 day average 
• https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57367849 - says that bolton who was the worst hit haven't seen sig increases and if you're double jabbed - "very very few " - if you had your vaccine then there's nothing else we can do.
• https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/05/vaccines-have-broken-the-chain-between-covid-and-serious-illness
• if you are under the age of 30 you are not at risk. Data to Jan 21 shows that people under 40 who have died <250 of which 185 is between the 30-39 age
  • If your argument is we need everyone over 18 needs a jab first then why not go one step further and go everyone over 5 gets the vaccine?? 

Can you point to any evidence that suggests that we should delay 21st June other than infections. There is no evidence to support delaying because the NHS isn't gonna be overwhelmed and people aren't dying. Very happy to admit im wrong but if you're gonna make a comment, do come with some data to support your argument other than hysteria 

 

 

 

[MrBarry465]

4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Sadiq Khan is backing a full opening up on 21 June after speaking daily to health officials.

Luckily Sadiq Khan isn't an authority on such matters.

[aj6658]

1 hour ago, El Matador said:

Why is vaccinating everyone 18 and over the threshold? Why not under 18 as well?

It's a completely arbitrary parameter.

Decision should be based entirely on whether there is a credible risk of the NHS capacity being exceeded. If not then there's no justification for maintaining restrictions. 

Thank you! this guy gets it

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

Luckily Sadiq Khan isn't an authority on such matters.

Yeah not like he gets briefings from health officials every day...

[MrBarry465]

5 minutes ago, aj6658 said:

Yeah then we need boosters and then we need local winter lockdowns. Better not return to normal till next year 

 

Really don't know how many times I have to say this but

• The vaccines work against all variants - there is no evidence out there that disputes this 
• 99% of deaths are in groups 1-9 which will be double jabbed by 21st June with time to have immune response kick in. 
• Hospitalisations and deaths have not increased. If we are seeing a 3rd wave we would see some sort of major uptick. 
  • Deaths - hovering around 1-2 a day 
  • Hospitalisations are actually down over the 7 day average 
• https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57367849 - says that bolton who was the worst hit haven't seen sig increases and if you're double jabbed - "very very few " - if you had your vaccine then there's nothing else we can do.
• https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/05/vaccines-have-broken-the-chain-between-covid-and-serious-illness
• if you are under the age of 30 you are not at risk. Data to Jan 21 shows that people under 40 who have died <250 of which 185 is between the 30-39 age
  • If your argument is we need everyone over 18 needs a jab first then why not go one step further and go everyone over 5 gets the vaccine?? 

Can you point to any evidence that suggests that we should delay 21st June other than infections. There is no evidence to support delaying because the NHS isn't gonna be overwhelmed and people aren't dying. Very happy to admit im wrong but if you're gonna make a comment, do come with some data to support your argument other than hysteria 

 

 

 

Because to me it would make more logical sense to get everyone over 18 vaccinated and then move forward. It's literally going to take an additional 2-3 weeks. You'll survive.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, aj6658 said:

Yeah then we need boosters and then we need local winter lockdowns. Better not return to normal till next year 

 

Really don't know how many times I have to say this but

• The vaccines work against all variants - there is no evidence out there that disputes this 
• 99% of deaths are in groups 1-9 which will be double jabbed by 21st June with time to have immune response kick in. 
• Hospitalisations and deaths have not increased. If we are seeing a 3rd wave we would see some sort of major uptick. 
  • Deaths - hovering around 1-2 a day 
  • Hospitalisations are actually down over the 7 day average 
• https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57367849 - says that bolton who was the worst hit haven't seen sig increases and if you're double jabbed - "very very few " - if you had your vaccine then there's nothing else we can do.
• https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/05/vaccines-have-broken-the-chain-between-covid-and-serious-illness
• if you are under the age of 30 you are not at risk. Data to Jan 21 shows that people under 40 who have died <250 of which 185 is between the 30-39 age
  • If your argument is we need everyone over 18 needs a jab first then why not go one step further and go everyone over 5 gets the vaccine?? 

Can you point to any evidence that suggests that we should delay 21st June other than infections. There is no evidence to support delaying because the NHS isn't gonna be overwhelmed and people aren't dying. Very happy to admit im wrong but if you're gonna make a comment, do come with some data to support your argument other than hysteria 

 

 

 

hospitalisations are going up in some areas ...North West England and Scotland.

The vaccines do not work quite as well against delta, especially single dose.

There are still a number of people unvaccinated.

So, there is still some uncertainty...Govt doesn't want to have to reimpose restrictions...so thinking is they may need a couple more weeks to collect more data and vaccinate more people...or bthey y next Monday may feel more certain that risk is low enough to release all restrictions on 21st June and all will be well and good. But, if does go wrong and we have a surge and have to go back into lockdown then that will be pretty bad news.

[Fuzzy Afro]

Times saying 2 week delay 😞 

[Fuzzy Afro]

6 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

Because to me it would make more logical sense to get everyone over 18 vaccinated and then move forward. It's literally going to take an additional 2-3 weeks. You'll survive.

We’ve been under this totalitarian nonsense for well over a year now. Get it binned ASAP. 

[aj6658]

Just now, MrBarry465 said:

Because to me it would make more logical sense to get everyone over 18 vaccinated and then move forward. It's literally going to take an additional 2-3 weeks. You'll survive.

Yeah ill survive but what's the point and why 18? The unvaccinated population by 21st June comes around will be ages 1-25 as over 25 can now book from tomorrow. This population has had so little deaths we don't get exact figures. This population makes less 0.02% of deaths.

 

The whole point of restrictions is the protect the NHS and reduce deaths, both of which are not increasing even with the rapid rise in cases.

 

Strange why you don't argue that everyone be double jabbed before restrictions are lifted or everyone over 15/12/10/8 get jabbed first? Do a proper risk assessment instead of looking at one metric. You're being blinded by the cases but completely ignoring context

Can you actually come with some data or reasoning to counter my points ?

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Times saying 2 week delay 😞 

Yep just came on to say that! 

That's got to be late July/early August festivals cancelling as soon as its confirmed right? Would you gamble hundreds of thousands of pounds on it only being two weeks? I know I wouldn't 

[Matt42]

Seein 2 week delay being reported 

[dotdash79]

I think a 2 week delay will help ensure the over 50s are fully jabbed and the second dose has time to take effect. Along with more of the younger age groups have the chance of at least on dose. 
 

but they should lay out what data they looking at to unlock (hospitalisations per 100,000 etc)