When will this shit end?

[Havors]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

I still don't understand why testing to go in these events can't be done, why would that cause massive spread if we keep masks on public transport? That part feels over cautious to me 

We need the results from the Download pilot. I think its fair to predict a good outcome. Testing negative before entry kind of mitigates almost all the risk of any spread at a festival. 

 

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Havors said:

Good to see. I was just looking at Ozannes post... I was wondering why did we seem to drop the ball with banging the vaccines out? We were smashing like 700k a day and then slowed right down... as we moved towards unlocking. Seems mad? 

My only thoughts are staffing the vaccine centres they can only jab to the staffing levels they have  … surely the supplies of vaccine are ramping up now 

[incident]

41 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Cases only really started to rise a week ago so in theory we wouldn’t expected to see any impacts on hospitalisations till the end of this week.

Sure, you can make that case on a National level.

But even in the "hotspots" that have been a problem for more than a month now it broadly holds true and we've got just about enough data to believe it's likely to apply when scaled up - Bolton is generally cited as being the worst hit area, and they did see a rise in Hospitalisations - but not in numbers that could be considered problematic or anything close to the hospitalisation rate from December / January.

To add to that, anecdotally at least it's been suggested that approximately only 10% of the hospitalisations were people who'd been fully vaccinated, and that on average the hospital admissions they have seen have been less severe (and so less time spent in Hospital) than before. I don't think there's hard numbers published on either of those claims yet, but if they do hold up then it should be seen as a huge positive.

This is what really frustrates me - people are saying "This is going to get bad - just look at the infection rate in Bolton for proof". But the high infection rate in Bolton doesn't tell us that at all - it tells us that the vaccines do (most of) what we want them to. The message we should be taking from that is to get everyone vaccinated, and find ways of appealing to anyone still hesitant.

[efcfanwirral]

3 minutes ago, Havors said:

We need the results from the Download pilot. I think its fair to predict a good outcome. Testing negative before entry kind of mitigates almost all the risk of any spread at a festival. 

 

That's what I think - and the day gigs (and other events) are proven OK so in theory non camping should be allowed after 21st whatever happens in the day to day. If not it'll be a political decision not a health one, probably based on it "feeling" dangerous to older people because its crowds, as likely shown by their opinion polls 

[Ozanne]

7 minutes ago, Havors said:

It's been around 3k mark for a good few weeks now. Jumped to 5-6k over the last week so yeah interesting to see the hospital numbers in 2 weeks from then. 

That said though 12th May we were at 2k cases not much increase considering we opened up much more on 17th. Admissions are very flat. 

They are slow at the moment because they are filtering through from when cases were around the 2k mark, they were flat a month ago because the Delta variant hadn't properly taken hold yet and because we hadn't opened indoor mixing. I think it's too early to rely on low hospital figures we just haven't had the time from when cases started to rise again.

[Havors]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

That's what I think - and the day gigs (and other events) are proven OK so in theory non camping should be allowed after 21st whatever happens in the day to day. If not it'll be a political decision not a health one, probably based on it "feeling" dangerous to older people because its crowds, as likely shown by their opinion polls 

Which is mental because the older people are the ones who are the most protected... they should be feeling very confident of getting out and mixing now. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

14 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Which is great and a brilliant achievement . But then what?

Three weeks for that first dose to kick in to a limited level then an eight week interval before the second and the highest level we can hope for. Even disregarding the second dose that'll be mid August. If they're basing easing on two doses then we're into Autumn.

Of course, J&J would speed that up but think they have production delays so not sure exactly when that comes onstream.

Interesting dilemma but I can see a lot of stuff being opened up on 21st or a few weeks after, but large capacity festivals? September maybe, but they'll take this cautiously.......

You realise “large capacity festivals” aren’t the most risky activity we can do?

9 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

I still don't understand why testing to go in these events can't be done, why would that cause massive spread if we keep masks on public transport? That part feels over cautious to me 

Who says it can’t be done?

[Havors]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

They are slow at the moment because they are filtering through from when cases were around the 2k mark, they were flat a month ago because the Delta variant hadn't properly taken hold yet and because we hadn't opened indoor mixing. I think it's too early to rely on low hospital figures we just haven't had the time from when cases started to rise again.

You cant ignore the Bolton numbers though. If they scale then we should see the same thing happen nationally. They have had the Delta variant for weeks now. 

Edited June 7, 2021 by Havors

[Copperface]

3 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

That's what I think - and the day gigs (and other events) are proven OK so in theory non camping should be allowed after 21st whatever happens in the day to day. If not it'll be a political decision not a health one, probably based on it "feeling" dangerous to older people because its crowds, as likely shown by their opinion polls 

Ascot is part of the pilot scheme and runs until 19th June. Not sure they can analyse that in two days. 

[Copperface]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

You realise “large capacity festivals” aren’t the most risky activity we can do?

 

Never said they were. But this is a festival forum so I'm presuming this is the main focus of interest for most.

 

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, Havors said:

You cant ignore the Bolton numbers though. If they scale then we should see the same thing happen nationally. They have had the Delta variant for weeks now. 

The Delta variant has become the predominant variant in the UK in the past week so anything from Bolton in May doesn't include that. The PHE report last week showed the variant is more transmissible and can lead to more severe illness (in some cases) which for me is why it's too early. By this time next week we'll start to have an idea where hospital data is going.

[Havors]

Just now, Fuzzy Afro said:

You realise “large capacity festivals” aren’t the most risky activity we can do?

Who says it can’t be done?

I agree they aren't. One main factor being they are predominantly outdoor events which in itself reduces risk of transmission. 

There have been thousands and thousands of those mental protesters in London for ages and no increase in infections. BLM protest also etc etc... 

I keep seeing all over twitter the Floridians and Texans rubbing it in that they have been completely unlocked for months with no restrictions at all and have the best numbers they've ever had. Not sure how accurate that is like. 

[Havors]

Just now, Ozanne said:

The Delta variant has become the predominant variant in the UK in the past week so anything from Bolton in May doesn't include that. The PHE report last week showed the variant is more transmissible and can lead to more severe illness (in some cases) which for me is why it's too early. By this time next week we'll start to have an idea where hospital data is going.

the dominant variant makes no odds....  

Im just talking about Bolton, they have had the Delta variant for weeks and numbers now look plateaued and dropping. As I say... if that scales and transaltes to the rest of the country as we see it spread nationally then we are ok. 

Thats all a big IF though. 

[incident]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

The Delta variant has become the predominant variant in the UK in the past week so anything from Bolton in May doesn't include that. The PHE report last week showed the variant is more transmissible and can lead to more severe illness (in some cases) which for me is why it's too early. By this time next week we'll start to have an idea where hospital data is going.

Delta has been predominant in Bolton for well over a month now. Their (Delta driven) surge started at the start of May.

[Havors]

Just now, incident said:

Delta has been predominant in Bolton for well over a month now. Their (Delta driven) surge started at the start of May.

Exactly my point. There experience may not translate to the rest of the nation but there is a good chance it will. Fingers crossed. 

[km9]

2 hours ago, DeanoL said:

I think the key point is the tolerance for cases is much higher. We can deal with them being loads higher than before. But we can't deal with them being say, 100x what they are now. But the scary thing with exponential growth is you can get there very quickly if you have no controls at all.

And y'know, that's the only reason we're still talking about extending this phase of lockdown at all - concern over the load on the NHS if we get that sort of growth. 

Sorry mate I didn't have a time to develop a full working model for you. But good luck with your fictional job.

What a prick 

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Havors said:

Exactly my point. There experience may not translate to the rest of the nation but there is a good chance it will. Fingers crossed. 

and many areas don't have those kind of  issues with the delta variant at present .... so that is worst case scenario ... the only question id ask is if a surge in vaccinations in those areas has managed to hold back some hospitalisations ?

[Ozanne]

6 minutes ago, Havors said:

the dominant variant makes no odds....  

Im just talking about Bolton, they have had the Delta variant for weeks and numbers now look plateaued and dropping. As I say... if that scales and transaltes to the rest of the country as we see it spread nationally then we are ok. 

Thats all a big IF though. 

Yes it does, if a more transmissible/more potent variant is the most dominate strain then it could potentially lead to more people getting a serious illness.

Yes that could happen, I'm not saying it won't all I'm saying is that it's too early to tell as cases have only just started to rise in the last week. Give it another week or so and we'll have a better idea.

[Ozanne]

 

 

[Radiochicken]

1 hour ago, Zacko said:

Deffo worth trying every few hours (if you're not already). I couldn't book this morning but then suddenly could early afternoon.

Same with a mate, he couldn't book about an hour ago but just has then! 

Cheers!! Just went back in again and it worked (a small bit of travelling to avoid the chaos of my local centre only offering my bday as an option.. but all good!) 💉

[stuartbert two hats]

44 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

The Delta variant has become the predominant variant in the UK in the past week so anything from Bolton in May doesn't include that. The PHE report last week showed the variant is more transmissible and can lead to more severe illness (in some cases) which for me is why it's too early. By this time next week we'll start to have an idea where hospital data is going.

I thought it was dominant in Bolton in May - which is why the cases spiked?

[Superunknown]

15 minutes ago, Radiochicken said:

Cheers!! Just went back in again and it worked (a small bit of travelling to avoid the chaos of my local centre only offering my bday as an option.. but all good!) 💉

Are you just trying on the NHS booking system? Keep trying but no luck! 

[zahidf]

12 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I thought it was dominant in Bolton in May - which is why the cases spiked?

Yup. Its been around since April and dominant in Bolton in May

[Havors]

48 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Yes it does, if a more transmissible/more potent variant is the most dominate strain then it could potentially lead to more people getting a serious illness.

Yes that could happen, I'm not saying it won't all I'm saying is that it's too early to tell as cases have only just started to rise in the last week. Give it another week or so and we'll have a better idea.

It was the more dominant strain in Bolton..... your are missing the point. 

[Ozanne]

6 minutes ago, Havors said:

It was the more dominant strain in Bolton..... your are missing the point. 

No I'm not, you were highlighting that hospital admissions were flat which was from a period when cases were flat. Case are now rising so I'm saying that it's too soon to say it's not filtering through to hospital admissions. Very early signs are that people in hospital with COVID-19 is up but thats only from 2 days, we need more time to see if it will increase.