When will this shit end?

[aj6658]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

hospitalisations are going up in some areas ...North West England and Scotland.

The vaccines do not work quite as well against delta, especially single dose.

There are still a number of people unvaccinated.

So, there is still some uncertainty...Govt doesn't want to have to reimpose restrictions...so thinking is they may need a couple more weeks to collect more data and vaccinate more people...or bthey y next Monday may feel more certain that risk is low enough to release all restrictions on 21st June and all will be well and good. But, if does go wrong and we have a surge and have to go back into lockdown then that will be pretty bad news.

1- Who's willing to bet that this increases are those who are unvaccinated and older? Just read this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57367849 - if you have your vaccine you are very well protected 

2- Its still very effective. Then lets just wait till everyones double jabbed and had their boosters then eh? 

3- But reimposing restrictions suggests that hospitalisations and deaths increase. The unvaccinated population are an age group who make less than 0.02% deaths. 

 

Lets be sensible here and not look at one metric but actually make a sensible assessment. Deaths and hospitalisations have plateaued . 

[efcfanwirral]

Just now, dotdash79 said:

I think a 2 week delay will help ensure the over 50s are fully jabbed and the second dose has time to take effect. Along with more of the younger age groups have the chance of at least on dose. 
 

but they should lay out what data they looking at to unlock (hospitalisations per 100,000 etc)

Yeah I agree - if they say two weeks with no metrics that basically tells me it'll be longer. If its just going to be "numbers going up" without context then they may as well just say how long it will actually be. Just want some honesty from them

[Chapple12345]

3 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Yep just came on to say that! 

That's got to be late July/early August festivals cancelling as soon as its confirmed right? Would you gamble hundreds of thousands of pounds on it only being two weeks? I know I wouldn't 

I think if they guaranteed it was 2 weeks and that would be it then they're likely to carry on, if it was them saying they were going to look at the data then there would be issues 

[steviewevie]

Just now, dotdash79 said:

I think a 2 week delay will help ensure the over 50s are fully jabbed and the second dose has time to take effect. Along with more of the younger age groups have the chance of at least on dose. 
 

but they should lay out what data they looking at to unlock (hospitalisations per 100,000 etc)

This 2 weeks isn't official, but it has been hinted at a few places now so looking likely. I'm sure they'd do the Boris, Whitty and Vallance show and will have lots of graphs and stats to convince us all they know what they're doing.

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, Chapple12345 said:

I think if they guaranteed it was 2 weeks and that would be it then they're likely to carry on, if it was them saying they were going to look at the data then there would be issues 

Who will believe any guarantees of it only being two weeks? I imagine many of us will just expect something else to come up for another delay 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, aj6658 said:

1- Who's willing to bet that this increases are those who are unvaccinated and older? Just read this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57367849 - if you have your vaccine you are very well protected 

2- Its still very effective. Then lets just wait till everyones double jabbed and had their boosters then eh? 

3- But reimposing restrictions suggests that hospitalisations and deaths increase. The unvaccinated population are an age group who make less than 0.02% deaths. 

 

Lets be sensible here and not look at one metric but actually make a sensible assessment. Deaths and hospitalisations have plateaued . 

I think a sensible assessment is what they're trying to do. Models are predicting a big rises in cases over the next month or so if we release all restrictions. This will cause more hospitalisations and deaths...how many they're trying to fully determine...it's very hard to accurately predict these things. They are maybe being over cautious...but they may not....and govt have been burnt by past mistakes.

[zahidf]

Disappointing if true. Completely over cautious and a crushing blow to thousands of businesses

 

Fake SAGE will be ecstatic and I'm sure will be drawing up arguments for even longer delays 'just in case'

Edited June 7, 2021 by zahidf

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

I think if they guaranteed it was 2 weeks and that would be it then they're likely to carry on, if it was them saying they were going to look at the data then there would be issues 

They can't guarantee anything I don't think...so yeah, there may be issues.

[Fuzzy Afro]

Just now, zahidf said:

Disappointing if true. Completely over cautious and a crushing blow to thousands of businesses

I’ve stopped following all the rules apart from wearing a face covering now but I might just sack that off as well. That’s how mad I am. 

[steviewevie]

[aj6658]

Just now, steviewevie said:

I think a sensible assessment is what they're trying to do. Models are predicting a big rises in cases over the next month or so if we release all restrictions. This will cause more hospitalisations and deaths...how many they're trying to fully determine...it's very hard to accurately predict these things. They are maybe being over cautious...but they may not....and govt have been burnt by past mistakes.

• Low hospitalisations 
• 1 death a day 
• people who aren't vaccinated make up less than 1% of deaths 
• 99% of deaths have been double jabbed 

 

No evidence. Literally no one has made any arguments other than "look at the cases". We've been cautious. The country was looking forward to 21st June. Its now delayed for no reason. Whats next? Wait till we're double jabbed? Wait till boosters? 

 

[steviewevie]

Just now, aj6658 said:

• Low hospitalisations 
• 1 death a day 
• people who aren't vaccinated make up less than 1% of deaths 
• 99% of deaths have been double jabbed 

 

No evidence. Literally no one has made any arguments other than "look at the cases". We've been cautious. The country was looking forward to 21st June. Its now delayed for no reason. Whats next? Wait till we're double jabbed? Wait till boosters? 

 

christmas?

[Ozanne]

That's the 3rd or 4th different version of events we've heard since Friday, there will likely be another handful of them. Don't believe all you read.

[BobWillis2]

No fucking delays, no fucking compromise. 

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Disappointing if true. Completely over cautious and a crushing blow to thousands of businesses

 

Fake SAGE will be ecstatic and I'm sure will be drawing up arguments for even longer delays 'just in case'

quick edit to get the Fake SAGE thing in there.

[steviewevie]

Just now, Ozanne said:

That's the 3rd or 4th different version of events we've heard since Friday, there will likely be another handful of them. Don't believe all you read.

yeah, agreed. Might be a 2 week delay for some restrictions...I think really just need to see what they say May 14th (although in reality I expect we'll know by Sunday).

[Ozanne]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, agreed. Might be a 2 week delay for some restrictions...I think really just need to see what they say May 14th (although in reality I expect we'll know by Sunday).

There's not much point paying attention to the rumours this far out as they'll change daily and it'll be Sunday at the earliest we'll have any real idea of what happens.

Edited June 7, 2021 by Ozanne

[Fuzzy Afro]

Pagel churning out guardian articles. Unfortunately it seems the particular area of Scotland she’s gone “wild camping” in seems to have good 4g signal. 

[zahidf]

8 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Pagel churning out guardian articles. Unfortunately it seems the particular area of Scotland she’s gone “wild camping” in seems to have good 4g signal. 

Ah saying Stage 3 was a mistake and that the old people were losing protection fast. Scaremongering !

[Ozanne]

Just now, zahidf said:

Ah saying Stage 3 was a mistake and that the old people were losing protection fast. Scaremongering !

How come you aren't angry at the government for not putting India on the red list earlier but you are angry at Christina Pagel for Tweeting and writing articles?

[steviewevie]

[Chapple12345]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

Perhaps this is the naive man in me, but I genuinely can't understand how this and potential easings being delayed are being reported on the same day 

15 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Ah saying Stage 3 was a mistake and that the old people were losing protection fast. Scaremongering !

Didn't indie sage say we should be kept at stage 3 instead of going ahead with 4? Has she broken ranks or have they had a change of heart in the last 4 days?

[Matt42]

Indie Sage won @crazyfool1

[zahidf]

23 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

How come you aren't angry at the government for not putting India on the red list earlier but you are angry at Christina Pagel for Tweeting and writing articles?

I am angry at the government. It was a mistake! But at the same time, I think border controls should be a last resort. I still believe in open borders.

 

I'm also angry at fake SAGE. Can be annoyed at both. But we've been under restrictions too long and I think enough is enough.

 

[Toilet Duck]

20 minutes ago, aj6658 said:

• Low hospitalisations 
• 1 death a day 
• people who aren't vaccinated make up less than 1% of deaths 
• 99% of deaths have been double jabbed 

 

No evidence. Literally no one has made any arguments other than "look at the cases". We've been cautious. The country was looking forward to 21st June. Its now delayed for no reason. Whats next? Wait till we're double jabbed? Wait till boosters? 

 

Just to point out, the one piece of information that has been left out of the breakdown of delta infections, a&e visits and eventual admissions in vaccinated vs vaccinated individuals has been the deaths. Last time I checked, 17 people had died with this variant (from about 12000 cases, so a CFR round about where flu typically sits, however the devil is in the detail in terms of the age profiles)…Not a lot, but 2 of them were fully vaccinated. 2/17 isn’t great, however, there’s nowhere near enough data to extrapolate that out…but you are making very definite statements based on what happens in terms of mortality in specific age groups when we have used NPI as a mitigation mechanism (and assuming that the 99% that accounted for all the deaths previously are now 100% protected by their vaccines…but they’re not). We’re now switching to pharmacological shielding and we simply don’t have the data to say for sure how that will play out. FWIW, i think the vaccines work (well enough to leave a CFR close to seasonal flu) and I think ye are close to being golden, but not quite there just yet (you could be by June 21st since another 8-10m shots will be delivered by then (those that got their 2nd dose this week will have better protection by the 21st, anyone that had Covid in the last 9 months and gets 1 shot now will as well)…or maybe it’ll take a little bit longer, but it’s coming sooner rather than later…a higher % of vaccinated people does give you that bit more wiggle room in terms of keeping a lid on things…if ye are already at that point, then you will find out in the next few weeks).