When will this shit end?

[DeanoL]

2 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I'm sorry to hear that. Had he only just been jabbed? That is shit timing and horrible to hear.

I think he'd been jabbed a few weeks earlier - enough he should have had some protection. It's someone she used to hang out with from an old job and they'd lost touch so don't have the details. We actually found out on the first day that "zero deaths yesterday" was in the papers, which was so weird. We were certainly in the position of "three weeks after we both get our first jab, we'll start doing stuff again" and it has shook our confidence a bit. Even though we know rationally he's an exception to the rule.

[efcfanwirral]

10 minutes ago, aj6658 said:

but I don't think it has to be that way. If the vaccines didn't work then we would know by now. Theres enough COVID going about  to test that. 

People won't stand to wait till Autumn let alone next year. 

There will always be more variants, and I don't agree about enough about to test it. With seasonal factors like vitamin d, people spending more time outside and likely viral load too, autumn winter respiratory season is the only time we can say for sure how it works

Even those small % it doesn't work on could be a high absolute number and it sounds like the NHS can't cope with any covid at all never mind on top of backlog and flu season from the noises coming out of it.

I'm not trying to be negative here, this is probably the reality of the rest of 2021 after summer, which is why it's a shame our chances of a meaningful summer are shrinking daily with every rise in cases. Summer was likely never the end, just a rest

8 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I think the point is though, that if things are ever going to be severe enough for a proper lockdown, we should do it now - certainly for most industries that'd be better than doing in August. I do wonder if the vaccine plus a circuit breaker lockdown could actually bring cases to a level that contact tracing would be viable again? I suspect not, but if so it could be worth it.

Not sure it'd go that far as schools would stay open, but it'd give us a couple of months afterwards to test things reasonably restriction free and with a decent amount of vaccine protection at the best seasonal time. 

Because otherwise we'll be having this same debate next april/may

Edited June 8, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[Fuzzy Afro]

3 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I think the point is though, that if things are ever going to be severe enough for a proper lockdown, we should do it now - certainly for most industries that'd be better than doing in August. I do wonder if the vaccine plus a circuit breaker lockdown could actually bring cases to a level that contact tracing would be viable again? I suspect not, but if so it could be worth it.

This is correct, yes.

 

The only argument for delaying a lockdown is if you think you don’t want to do one at all. If you delay it and still impose one later, it just extends the amount of time you’re under it.

 

Having said that I think another lockdown is unlikely at this point. The R was < 1 under step 2 conditions (although not clear if this would still be the case with Delta as the main variant), so if things were starting to look ropey, I think they’d just ban indoor mixing and close indoor hospitality rather than locking down again.

 

I think we could just stay in step 3 though and vaccines will eventually pull R < 1 before NHS capacity comes into question, however if they go ahead with step 4 and increase R then it’s more likely that we could have to go backwards to avoid the NHS collapsing. 

[efcfanwirral]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Especially the ones double jabbed. 

Then let them have their freedoms 

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I think he'd been jabbed a few weeks earlier - enough he should have had some protection. It's someone she used to hang out with from an old job and they'd lost touch so don't have the details. We actually found out on the first day that "zero deaths yesterday" was in the papers, which was so weird. We were certainly in the position of "three weeks after we both get our first jab, we'll start doing stuff again" and it has shook our confidence a bit. Even though we know rationally he's an exception to the rule.

Unfortunately with the Delta variant you really need your second jab to be well protected

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

Then let them have their freedoms 

I dont disagree with that. The US seems happier than us to open up once a good percentage of the population is double jabbed

[steviewevie]

 

[fraybentos1]

The whole point in lockdowns were when we didn't have a vaccine to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed. There seems little chance of that happening now. Why on earth would we go backwards?

We cannot avoid every single death, people seem to act like we can. There is never going to be a perfect time to open up but summer seems better than winter to me. Can we really keep going like this until next spring?

[DeanoL]

5 minutes ago, mike46 said:

Was there? I can’t find any reported circumstances where a hospital reached capacity and people were turned away to die at home? 

It was a shock to me when I read it too, but it's in the book I recommended yesterday - there's a review/summary of it here: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/mar/11/failures-of-state-review-never-forget-the-johnson-governments-covid-disasters

One of the chapters is literally called "left to die at home". Here's a few pages from it - it's by a couple of Sunday Times journalists. I think we'll see these news stories coming out as the enquiry progresses but it's sort of all been buried under reporting of what is happening right now, at the moment.

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

IMO bin the rule of 6 and bring back mass events, keep WFH and face nappies 

[efcfanwirral]

7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

I dont disagree with that. The US seems happier than us to open up once a good percentage of the population is double jabbed

It's also possible to allow those who have had one to take a test to do stuff - it's just as legitimate, maybe moreso. I'm a bit baffled they haven't done it to be honest, who cares if there are a few protests they have a huge majority and can do whatever they want 

Edited June 8, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

The whole point in lockdowns were when we didn't have a vaccine to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed. There seems little chance of that happening now. Why on earth would we go backwards?

We cannot avoid every single death, people seem to act like we can. There is never going to be a perfect time to open up but summer seems better than winter to me. Can we really keep going like this until next spring?

Restrictions until next spring isn't going to happen, except from people who dont really understand variants and a few twitter nutters

Once people have had their jabs, they wont put up with most of these restrictions. The govt knows this, and i think the boffins hsould probably realise this by now as well 

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

IMO bin the rule of 6 and bring back mass events, keep WFH and face nappies 

Yup id agree with that

[efcfanwirral]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

Great so that's limits on big events then - they listen to these polls fully. 

Hopefully that would only mean testing but I feel people would take that as "super spreader events" 

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Great so that's limits on big events then - they listen to these polls fully. 

Hopefully that would only mean testing but I feel people would take that as "super spreader events" 

I dont think they care as much about those polls as you'd think. Certainly doesn't mean the end of things.

[zahidf]

Sanger institute calls out fake SAGE for talking rubbish. You love to see it

 

[mike46]

12 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

It was a shock to me when I read it too, but it's in the book I recommended yesterday - there's a review/summary of it here: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/mar/11/failures-of-state-review-never-forget-the-johnson-governments-covid-disasters

One of the chapters is literally called "left to die at home". Here's a few pages from it - it's by a couple of Sunday Times journalists. I think we'll see these news stories coming out as the enquiry progresses but it's sort of all been buried under reporting of what is happening right now, at the moment.

Thank you! That’s incredible, will check the book out for sure 

[efcfanwirral]

30 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Sanger institute calls out fake SAGE for talking rubbish. You love to see it

 

Similar stuff about the government here 

 

[Havors]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Sanger institute calls out fake SAGE for talking rubbish. You love to see it

 

He is just saying Pagels article has inaccuracies.

The fact india should have gone on the red list much sooner is unchanged. It most definitely should have... whether Pagel says it should or not. 

[fraybentos1]

The Strokes doing a full capacity gig in New York on Saturday. I long for the day this is us again.. hopefully not long.

Proof of vaccination required for it.

[efcfanwirral]

4 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

The Strokes doing a full capacity gig in New York on Saturday. I long for the day this is us again.. hopefully not long.

Proof of vaccination required for it.

Surely that's where we're going to end up to allow those events back?

[zahidf]

 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

 

is this the guidance that they like to keep secret?

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

 

When you're talking areas of that size they really need to grow some balls and actually face up to it with a press conference at the very least

[efcfanwirral]

Also im guessing the case data they get from the surge testing will be more than sufficient numbers to justify their delay