When will this shit end?

[zahidf]

@Toilet Duck interested in your take on this?

 

[zahidf]

If NZ are loosening border controls with vaccinations...

 

[st dan]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

It could potentially be that but then I suppose they won’t know unless they start to reopen areas. If Johnson is going to take the data presented to him in the next 2 days and go from there then fine, they always said it would be based on the most up to date data they had available. 

Yeah hope so - if it’s purely going off data then I think we can be pretty confident this is only going to show good results, and restrictions can start to be eased sooner rather than later. I  think it’s very unlikely that the findings will show the effects of vaccinations have been worse than they were anticipating. But that takes the whole debate away from it also being influenced by the future number of cases and modelling/forecasting. 

[Toilet Duck]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

@Toilet Duck interested in your take on this?

 

Small numbers in the study, but its longitudinal data which is always useful. I think right back when the variant emerged I was asked whether more infectious meant higher viral loads (and by extension greater potential for more severe infections), but at the time I commented that it didn't necessarily have to mean that as if the virus had higher affinity for the receptor, then theoretically, lower viral loads could still be more infectious. This kind of supports that, but let's wait and see!

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, st dan said:

Yeah hope so - if it’s purely going off data then I think we can be pretty confident this is only going to show good results, and restrictions can start to be eased sooner rather than later. I  think it’s very unlikely that the findings will show the effects of vaccinations have been worse than they were anticipating. But that takes the whole debate away from it also being influenced by the future number of cases and modelling/forecasting. 

They’ll probably tell us rough areas they look for when decided to loosen restrictions but it’s probably more detailed than that. At least we’ll be in a position to reopen schools fully which is the most important aspect, and then see what effects that has.

[efcfanwirral]

13 minutes ago, st dan said:

What I’m struggling to understand is how they are going to take any meaningful data from the reports, given that we are still in a harsh lockdown. 
Yes we know the vaccines will be effective in cutting deaths, but just how effective won’t be known until we are living in more ‘real world’ conditions will they? Might it be that less people may be dying who have had the vaccine simply because they have not been exposed to people who currently have Covid?  

This is (articulately) what I was trying to say yesterday, and is perhaps why winter restrictions may be in place. Real world conditions in winter will be the first time we get a true test of this, as everyone will be vaccinated and we'll be at peak of spreading conditions. Are they likely to have everything wide open throughout that time and risk another full on lockdown? Glad I'm not making those decisions 

[hodgey123]

35 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

I think this also indicates that there is a lot of briefing going on with the papers this week (which helps absolutely no one). If the decisions have not yet been made and the government are waiting for the very last data to be in to inform the decisions, why are they then briefing different scenarios and timelines in the papers other than just to test the waters with public opinion (which is completely irresponsible). Unless the briefs are the concrete plans that have already been made, and the dates depends on the data?

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, hodgey123 said:

I think this also indicates that there is a lot of briefing going on with the papers this week (which helps absolutely no one). If the decisions have not yet been made and the government are waiting for the very last data to be in to inform the decisions, why are they then briefing different scenarios and timelines in the papers other than just to test the waters with public opinion (which is completely irresponsible). Unless the briefs are the concrete plans that have already been made, and the dates depends on the data?

A lot of it is just individual members of the cabinet briefing what they personally want to roadmap to be in attempt to bounce Boris into accepting their version. Gove is particularly known for this. 

[st dan]

 

Johnson to Whitty and Valance on Friday when the reports hit his desk.  

Edited February 17, 2021 by st dan

[Copperface]

45 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

See Flu chart above (I know covid isn't Flu i'm using it as an example), cases in 2019/20 spiked at the end of the year and then declined, 2018/19 season started later but followed the same pattern. 

Flu is, I thought,  down this season due to hygiene, distancing and increased vaccination numbers, but while that graph is positive flu cases, the ICU admissions with flu are sky high compared to other years.

It's coded as pneumonia but all starts getting very complicated when trying to isolate individual cases of flu, viral pneumonia and covid so nothing is as simple as it seems.

Another graph from here.(it's like graph wars!)

https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports

 

Edited February 17, 2021 by Copperface

[Punksnotdead]

16 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

At least we’ll be in a position to reopen schools fully which is the most important aspect

Opening the pubs is more important than opening the schools!

Ah wait, sorry, I thought I was on the "controversial opinions" thread. 😄

[zahidf]

explanation for Macnhester Rises

 

Cases have increased in two boroughs of Greater Manchester, Bury and Tameside.

Burnham said this was linked to inequality and higher levels of people who have not been able to work from home and who live in housing where it is not possible to self-isolate. He called on the government to increase financial support for those who have to self-isolate, which he said should form part of the lockdown easing.

Bev Hughes, Greater Manchester’s deputy mayor for policing and crime, said there has been a resurgence of very large gatherings in breach of covid legislation.

There have been 55 £800 pound fines issued in the last seven days, she said. Hughes said that colleagues from other metropolitan areas of the country were reporting a similar trend.

“The police everywhere are feeling that there’s a lot more resistance now to intervention by the police”, she said.

[JoeyT]

Edited February 17, 2021 by JoeyT

[Guest]

Today’s figures:

[Fuzzy Afro]

I think we can say with some confidence now that the reduction in cases are slowing to a stop. 

[JoeyT]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I think we can say with some confidence now that the reduction in cases are slowing to a stop. 

Best to now keep an eye on admissions & deaths.

Providing the positive cases are amongst those least likely to result in serious illness that’s the most important thing.

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, gizmoman said:

Correlation does not imply causation as the scientists keep telling us, lockdown may have had an effect but this is the same pattern you see every year with respiratory diseases.

How many fucking lockdowns do you need?

[Guest]

Vaccination update:

[MrBarry465]

1 hour ago, Paul ™ said:

Very much doubt that at all. There might be testing/self isolation at home but not hotel quarantine for that long a period. 

Don't you have a flight to catch?

[MrBarry465]

3 hours ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Working from home doesn't necessarily unlock the economy more - infect it can actually harm big parts of the economy. Town centres are dying anyway, take away employers from town centres and they die quicker. Barnsley where I used to work at lunch time the town was full of council staff, DWP staff, Legal and General staff and college kids. Take that away and lots of businesses have no customers. 

Employers moving from London to other places and employing staff in offices there spreads this lunch time and early evening economy. 

I've gone for a very agile workplace with hot desks etc... Something local authorities and other public sector organisations have been doing for a while now to being home based as a result Tesco gets more of my money than before. 

Just because town centres might not be booming - that move away from the office then generates money elsewhere. It's not a black and white scenario. Why not turn office buildings into residential buildings, in order to keep those town centres thriving? Trying to cling to the old model isn't going to help us. 

Business has been booming in smaller indepent coffee shops and places that were previously in fringe zones. 

I 100% think the workplace should be as mobile and getting population concentration away from big cities, whilst might be bad for some, is generally better for large parts of the population. We need to adapt our economy and evolve it with the world around us, because at this point it's unlikely we will ever go back to what we were 2019 and prior. 

A lot of talk is around how we save central London from a cultural perspective, well to me the answer is simple. Convert all those offices into flats and you know.... actually have people living in central London again.

Edited February 17, 2021 by MrBarry465

[zahidf]

17 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I think we can say with some confidence now that the reduction in cases are slowing to a stop. 

probably still worth looking at the weeks averages rather than day to day. Disappointing for sure but may not mean much

[tigger123]

12 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I think we can say with some confidence now that the reduction in cases are slowing to a stop. 

We’d better stay in lockdown forever then! 
 

In all seriousness, if cases stall around this level and then we open schools in a couple of weeks, then what’s the plan? Stay locked up until everyone is vaccinated? This is why I agree with some on here in thinking case numbers won’t and shouldn’t be used as a metric for removing lockdown restrictions. As long as hospitalisations and deaths stay low which hopefully they should do given vaccination of the vulnerable, then surely we should be ok? 

[Hannibal Schmitt]

15 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

Don't you have a flight to catch?

Holiday destinations in Europe will surely be possible. Countries like Spain and Greece are strongly pushing the EU for testing/vaccination passport/certificates before holiday season. Eastern and Scandinavian countries will go a similar way, maybe with digital registration. 

[Paul ™]

19 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

Don't you have a flight to catch?

No, why do you ask? 

Edited February 17, 2021 by Paul ™
Typo

[danmarks]

Reduction in cases slowing to a stop? 'Only' 24percent down on this time last week. Genuinely don't know what some people want to realistically see /expect to happen.