When will this shit end?

[zahidf]

Well....

 

 

 

 

Edited February 18, 2021 by zahidf

[xxialac]

2 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

I don’t know anyone irl that’s travelled during this pandemic but this thread is full of them. It’s usually the most preachy people about how the pandemic is gonna last forever too (exaggerating obv). Utterly mental.

I don't think it's inherently any more preachy to forecast that the pandemic will last for longer than those who predict we'll be able to end it sooner without any dire consequences.

And worth remembering last year the people that forecast that we would have a bad second wave were right yet were shot down.

 

[JoeyT]

3 minutes ago, xxialac said:

I don't think it's inherently any more preachy to forecast that the pandemic will last for longer than those who predict we'll be able to end it sooner without any dire consequences.

And worth remembering last year the people that forecast that we would have a bad second wave were right yet were shot down.

 

But were those forecasting a second wave doing so with the belief that it would be in the guise of a more transmissible mutated version of the original virus?

If we still only had the original virus in circulation we'd be in a much better place by now wouldn't we?

Therefore yes those who predicted a bad second wave were correct but the reasons for being so are more circumstantial than with any firm knowledge of how things were going to turn out... 

Edited February 18, 2021 by JoeyT

[xxialac]

1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

But were those forecasting a second wave doing so with the belief that it would be in the guise of a more transmissible mutated version of the original virus?

If we still only had the original virus in circulation we'd be in a much better place by now wouldn't we?

Therefore yes those who predicted a bad second wave were correct but the reasons for being so are more circumstantial than with any firm knowledge of how things were going to turn out... 

There's been an extremely bad second wave in countries without the mutated version.

Czech Republic and Portugal for example.

I think all of Europe at least has had a worse second wave than the first and it's not been based on the mutation.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

But were those forecasting a second wave doing so with the belief that it would be in the guise of a more transmissible mutated version of the original virus?

If we still only had the original virus in circulation we'd be in a much better place by now wouldn't we?

Therefore yes those who predicted a bad second wave were correct but the reasons for being so are more circumstantial than with any firm knowledge of how things were going to turn out... 

nah.

I forecast a 2nd wave on the basis that once life moved inside for the winter the situation would be drastically changed.

Novel viruses are like that. They infect everyone without antibodies, which is everyone.

The problem, I think, some people have looking forwards from now is that they're imagining everything stays the same with a non-novel virus. Everything we know says it won't do.

[Zoo Music Girl]

15 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

I don’t know anyone irl that’s travelled during this pandemic but this thread is full of them. It’s usually the most preachy people about how the pandemic is gonna last forever too (exaggerating obv). Utterly mental.

A few people at my work did (including one who went on holiday to Spain not once but twice in the summer - but she would fall very much into the just wanting it all over regardless camp). I agree there seem to be a lot of frequent travellers here, though.

[st dan]

7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Well....

 

 

 

 

Interesting! And great call by the JCVI - never doubt those guys! If they knew then what they know now, I wonder whether they would have bothered with any 2nd doses at all, if it only has a 2.2% boost to effectiveness?

Without the need of 2nd jabs, we could probably have done most of the vaccinations for the whole population by end of March/April couldn’t we? (obviously a caveat that we’re assuming the Oxford/AZ shows similar results). 

[Chapple12345]

Just now, eFestivals said:

nah.

I forecast a 2nd wave on the basis that once life moved inside for the winter the situation would be drastically changed.

Novel viruses are like that. They infect everyone without antibodies, which is everyone.

The problem, I think, some people have looking forwards from now is that they're imagining everything stays the same with a non-novel virus. Everything we know says it won't do.

Agreed - also I hate to be that guy but the testing was so so limited in the first wave I dont think we'll ever know just how many were infected so the second wave was always going to appear worse

[Zoo Music Girl]

14 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I didn’t get the chance to go abroad last year (2 holidays cancelled during first lockdown and then my Mrs couldn’t get the time off once it relaxed) but I will 100% be going abroad this summer if there is any possibility of doing so without any quarantine period. 

I'm hoping to travel at the end of the year, but I feel a lot more comfortable doing so now there is a vaccine. Will depend on quarantine rules and etc though. I don't mind sacrificing international travel for another year if things get more back to normal domestically.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, st dan said:

Interesting! And great call by the JCVI - never doubt those guys! If they knew then what they know now, I wonder whether they would have bothered with any 2nd doses at all, if it only has a 2.2% boost to effectiveness?

the 2nd dose isn't really about effectiveness, but about longtivity.

[xxialac]

1 minute ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

A few people at my work did (including one who went on holiday to Spain not once but twice in the summer - but she would fall very much into the just wanting it all over regardless camp). I agree there seem to be a lot of frequent travellers here, though.

Playing devil's advocate, if the law said you can fly for any reason and you fly, what is wrong with that? Is it not the law that is wrong?

I wasn't critical of the people meeting over Christmas for exactly the same reason.

[xxialac]

3 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

Agreed - also I hate to be that guy but the testing was so so limited in the first wave I dont think we'll ever know just how many were infected so the second wave was always going to appear worse

We do know the second wave was much worse - just look at the deaths and extrapolate to come up with first wave cases.

[st dan]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

the 2nd dose isn't really about effectiveness, but about longtivity.

Ahhh is it, didn’t realise that! Out of interest, do you know roughly what the longevity is of one dose vs two? 
And assuming the first dose offers protection for more then 6 weeks, why on Earth would any country be looking to give the 2nd dose sooner? And why hasn’t our approach been the one for every other to follow?

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Playing devil's advocate, if the law said you can fly for any reason and you fly, what is wrong with that? Is it not the law that is wrong?

some people take all of their instruction for life from govt diktat.

Others have their own agency.

 

2 minutes ago, xxialac said:

I wasn't critical of the people meeting over Christmas for exactly the same reason.

Family isn't quite the same, as it's not (necessarily) purely about self-indulgence.

[stuartbert two hats]

12 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

But were those forecasting a second wave doing so with the belief that it would be in the guise of a more transmissible mutated version of the original virus?

If we still only had the original virus in circulation we'd be in a much better place by now wouldn't we?

Therefore yes those who predicted a bad second wave were correct but the reasons for being so are more circumstantial than with any firm knowledge of how things were going to turn out... 

The case rise started in the NW before the Kent variant made it up here. The second wavers were right and not just by luck.

[JoeyT]

 

 

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, st dan said:

Ahhh is it, didn’t realise that! Out of interest, do you know roughly what the longevity is of one dose vs two? 
And assuming the first dose offers protection for more then 6 weeks, why on Earth would any country be looking to give the 2nd dose sooner? And why hasn’t our approach been the one for every other to follow?

Not sure about longevity, I'm not even sure that the vaccine makers are. It needs time to be tested. I think the idea of better longevity comes from standard(ish) knowledge about immune responses, but I'm no expert.

The Pfizer trail didn't do long gaps between jabs so there's no test data for it. As standard,  medicines etc should only be used in the way they've been tested - which is the reason for the controversy about the UK doing delayed jabs, and why other countries haven't done it.

[Paul ™]

13 minutes ago, xxialac said:

There's been an extremely bad second wave in countries without the mutated version.

Czech Republic and Portugal for example.

43% of recent cases in Portugal were the UK Kent variant.

26 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

I don’t know anyone irl that’s travelled during this pandemic but this thread is full of them.

We traveled in September (when travel was not restricted) back to Portugal, where we live in the winter months. Return to the UK on Sunday (negative test dependent).

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

 

 

that's not a very exclusive. It's also poorly informed.

[xxialac]

Just now, Paul ™ said:

43% of recent cases in Portugal were the UK Kent variant.

We traveled in September (when travel was not restricted) back to Portugal, where we live in the winter months. Return to the UK on Sunday (negative test dependent).

Ah, thanks for putting me straight. Czechia then!

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

The case rise started in the NW before the Kent variant made it up here. The second wavers were right and not just by luck.

Indeed, there was evidence of the 2nd wave before the new variant was widely known, as you say look at the NW in the Autumn to see that. 

[zahidf]

16 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

the 2nd dose isn't really about effectiveness, but about longtivity.

That article seems to say that having it one month after doesn't convey more benefit after 1 month than giving someone their first dose at that time does

 

no one know after 10-12 weeks but I'd be surprised if it faded away massively by then

[Homer]

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-revealed-whitehall-plans-for-rapid-reopening-of-shops-pubs-and-restaurants-12221180

[steviewevie]

21 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I'm hoping to travel at the end of the year, but I feel a lot more comfortable doing so now there is a vaccine. Will depend on quarantine rules and etc though. I don't mind sacrificing international travel for another year if things get more back to normal domestically.

I haven't left Manchester in about 14 months. I'm like Snake Plissken.

[Guest]