When will this shit end?

[Havors]

15 minutes ago, Homer said:

I think the issue there will be that we are vaccinating faster than other countries won't it?

Well if those countries opened up last year they most certainly will this year considering how much more "safe" it should be?? 

[jparx]

55 minutes ago, Homer said:

I don't really get why everyone (generally) is flying off the handle about foreign holidays currently. I would happily not go abroad for the next year if the trade-off was that we could do go to the pub/gym/small gigs instead. That would have a far greater positive impact on my day to day life.

I have some holidays booked and we’re covered if it can’t go ahead, but I also don’t get the fuss about it currently. Surely people are aware of the risks right now and there’s no way of predicting whether or not they will happen for another couple months. It’s just not worth worrying about yet.

I’m not too sure why the govt don’t just say: “If you want to book one, book one and make sure you’re happy with the cover and understand the risks, but right now we cannot guarantee anything.” 

[JoeyT]

12 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

We should get the start of that on Feb 22nd when they announce their roadmap. I presume it’ll be slow but by Easter we should see some restrictions loosening and all things being well that continues in a gradual way as the months go on. 

I just hope they can be sensible about it in regards to things such as opening up pubs / allowing people to meet outside at private addresses etc.

Doing things like relaxing rules on a Tuesday following a bank holiday weekend etc. will just mean people ignore the rules and then puts extra pressure on the police to try and enforce.

I can't remember when exactly during last summer it was but I seem to remember us being forecast a really hot weekend, a rule relaxation was announced on the Thursday to come in effect on the Monday?!

[Homer]

10 minutes ago, Havors said:

Well if those countries opened up last year they most certainly will this year considering how much more "safe" it should be?? 

Yeah, I was thinking about out govt thinking of the risk of us bringing it/new variants back in... but second thoughts, perhaps that's more than a tad naive!

[Matt42]

I’ve got a holiday booked in May for America. It’s not happening. I know it. My family know it. But I’m holding off cancellations at the moment as it’s too early.

I’m not desperate for one / going to try and go around it to make it happen either - but yeah it’s an annoying one.

Just waiting until I have to cancel.

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

I just hope they can be sensible about it in regards to things such as opening up pubs / allowing people to meet outside at private addresses etc.

Doing things like relaxing rules on a Tuesday following a bank holiday weekend etc. will just mean people ignore the rules and then puts extra pressure on the police to try and enforce.

I can't remember when exactly during last summer it was but I seem to remember us being forecast a really hot weekend, a rule relaxation was announced on the Thursday to come in effect on the Monday?!

I hope they are sensible about it and go slowly. Ease into things and go with areas that need to be opened first such as schools. Then see how the effects of that are then move onto the next then see those effects. If they go too quickly then we risk being back here again. I’d rather they take longer loosening restrictions now but they they stay that way than going too fast and they have to reintroduce some. 

[Havors]

6 minutes ago, Homer said:

Yeah, I was thinking about out govt thinking of the risk of us bringing it/new variants back in... but second thoughts, perhaps that's more than a tad naive!

Well they are going to have to do it sometime... and like I said they either have confidence in the vaccine or they dont. Either they are wasting our time and money or they arent. 

I'm being overly optimistic probably but Im hoping come Sept/Oct covid will just be the new flu... seasonal and vaccinations reduce deaths and serious illness to manageable levels and life gets completely back to normal. No reason to think it wont act like other corona viruses and natural immunity also helps control it at some point. 

[JoeyT]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I hope they are sensible about it and go slowly. Ease into things and go with areas that need to be opened first such as schools. Then see how the effects of that are then move onto the next then see those effects. If they go too quickly then we risk being back here again. I’d rather they take longer loosening restrictions now but they they stay that way than going too fast and they have to reintroduce some. 

I'm not sure we risk being back here again? 

We have a vaccine programme going very successfully which we didn't have when we loosened last summer.

How do you see the roadmap looking in your mind?

[Leyrulion]

30 minutes ago, ErnestWorthing said:

Yeah, I'm not going to be a knob about it, but there has to be an end, this doom talk of years and years of lockdowns can't happen.  Hopefully vaccines and drugs will sort us out (and that seems the most likely outcome at this point).  However, at some point we draw a line in the sand and move on to plan B though.

We've decided that we're bubbling up with our friends who live the next street over. 

There's two of them and two of us, we're not interacting with anyone else or any vulnerable people. They've had it and I've been vaccinated so it's only my housemate who's not immune.

Technically illegal but we've decided that the benefits outweigh the minimal risks. I think many others will start to do the same.

[gizmoman]

New lecture from Chris Whitty,

 

[JoeyT]

4 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

We've decided that we're bubbling up with our friends who live the next street over. 

There's two of them and two of us, we're not interacting with anyone else or any vulnerable people. They've had it and I've been vaccinated so it's only my housemate who's not immune.

Technically illegal but we've decided that the benefits outweigh the minimal risks. I think many others will start to do the same.

I think many others already are and probably have been since Christmas.

Since my Wife went back to work in September following maternity leave our childcare setup has meant that we have in effect "bubbled" with both mine and my Wife's parents.

3 of 4 of them will have had a first dose of the vaccine by the end of this weekend so although not completely risk free it's certainly decreasing.

Edited February 11, 2021 by JoeyT

[Ozanne]

4 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I'm not sure we risk being back here again? 

We have a vaccine programme going very successfully which we didn't have when we loosened last summer.

How do you see the roadmap looking in your mind?

We don’t know for sure, we could end up in a position where we loosen restrictions too early, cases start to rise in the non-vaccinated and hospital admissions go up. I think it was something like 70% of COVID admissions are in the under 70s.

It would be a huge shame if after all this we went too quickly. I don’t see any major issues with going slowly, letting important areas such as schools open up etc then they review the data as we go.

Last year we opened up later in the year with full effects of summer weather. But also we opened up too quickly in some regions such as areas of Manchester and Leicester and that lead to further issues. We should learn from those experiences this time round. 

[swede]

3 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I have to say, I was looking into booking an autumn holiday last week. It would be really nice to have something to look forward to that isn't just going to the pub and meeting relatives.

I edged my bets at Christmas and as a surprise present for the wife and kids booked a hot tub/lodge break for October, think that might be a goer. 

Other than that I've got my fingers crossed I can have a kitchen party with 4 friends for my 39th birthday in June. 

[aj6658]

5 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

We don’t know for sure, we could end up in a position where we loosen restrictions too early, cases start to rise in the non-vaccinated and hospital admissions go up. I think it was something like 70% of COVID admissions are in the under 70s.

It would be a huge shame if after all this we went too quickly. I don’t see any major issues with going slowly, letting important areas such as schools open up etc then they review the data as we go.

Last year we opened up later in the year with full effects of summer weather. But also we opened up too quickly in some regions such as areas of Manchester and Leicester and that lead to further issues. We should learn from those experiences this time round. 

Agree, I think we need to be smart and patient and slowly release. This needs to be the last lockdown and the beginning of the end of restrictions. 

 

If we were to relax now people will relax too much as they feel the vaccine is their safety net so the whole tiers will go out the window.  We're at the stage where people a ready to return to normal and there's a false sense of security.

 

Such a tough choice for the government to make. Once over 50s are vaccinated then we should be clear of most of the risk.

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 hour ago, Homer said:

I don't really get why everyone (generally) is flying off the handle about foreign holidays currently. I would happily not go abroad for the next year if the trade-off was that we could do go to the pub/gym/small gigs instead. That would have a far greater positive impact on my day to day life.

I completely agree but for plenty of people who aren’t pub goers or gig junkies, that foreign holiday is their main passion in life. 

[mcshed]

1 hour ago, gizmoman said:

No need to make a bet, who knows where we will be in two years, I was just wanting to set a method of agreeing whether we had returned to "normal", Since you agree that's a fair test we will just see who is right, hopefully you!

Well the bet is to show faith in your predictions. I think you enjoy suggesting these outlandish ideas about perpetual lockdowns but don't really believe in them.

As far as definitions of normal go, the only slight quibble I have is with the cash. Whilst I'm certain you will be able to use cash to buy a pint before Jan 2023, I'm less sure you'll be able to do it in 2033. I think there has been progress towards a cashless society for some time, this pandemic has certainly accelerated that progression and whilst for the purposes of your three tests of normality you should be fine I think there will be noticeably more cashless establishments post pandemic.

[DareToDibble]

23 minutes ago, swede said:

I edged my bets at Christmas and as a surprise present for the wife and kids booked a hot tub/lodge break for October, think that might be a goer. 

Other than that I've got my fingers crossed I can have a kitchen party with 4 friends for my 39th birthday in June. 

I've hovered over the "Confirm booking" button a few times for mid-September. I'd really like it if our honeymoon could be abroad and not in the UK. Part of the problem is knowing what the country you intend on visiting will be like for Covid at the time, too. I see the main issue with travelling later in the year being the host country rather than the UK.

Having said that I'd be grateful if the actual wedding could just go ahead in September at this stage 😄 

[MEGABOWL]

2 hours ago, Homer said:

I don't really get why everyone (generally) is flying off the handle about foreign holidays currently. I would happily not go abroad for the next year if the trade-off was that we could do go to the pub/gym/small gigs instead. That would have a far greater positive impact on my day to day life.

That’s you. I’m not bothered either. But for others the prospect of a Holiday is the only thing keeping them going. They may be doing very little else if they can just get away for a couple of weeks. Everyone’s running their own race at the minute.

The other side of it is every time someone casually goes ‘oh just ban Holidays’ other people go ‘great, there goes my job or my business.’  Not just holiday chains I’m talking about taxi drivers, little B&B owners. 

Edited February 11, 2021 by MEGABOWL

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

That’s you. I’m not bothered either. But for others the prospect of a Holiday is the only thing keeping them going. They may be doing very little else if they can just get away for a couple of weeks. Everyone’s running their own race at the minute.

I want to treat my wife+daughter for having to get through all this.  Neither of them are drinkers, so the pub isn't going to do much for them.

[efcfanwirral]

 

54 minutes ago, aj6658 said:

Agree, I think we need to be smart and patient and slowly release. This needs to be the last lockdown and the beginning of the end of restrictions. 

 

If we were to relax now people will relax too much as they feel the vaccine is their safety net so the whole tiers will go out the window.  We're at the stage where people a ready to return to normal and there's a false sense of security.

 

Such a tough choice for the government to make. Once over 50s are vaccinated then we should be clear of most of the risk.

 

If we let everyone else catch it in anything close to the same time then we'll end up with already stretched hospitals tipping over into overwhelmed again as the lower percentage of younger people in hospital becomes a big absolute number, not to mention further delayed treatments/surgeries etc.

The only sensible option for the NHS is to open up when most of the population is vaccinated, and keep things at tier 2 levels at best until then, with maybe household mixing added outdoors in summer. But that will ruin the economy so who knows...

Edited February 11, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[Homer]

I'm not particularly arsed about the pub either. I would just rather be able to leave my house, say, every other day for the next year and not go abroad than carry on as we are but get a foreign holiday for a few weeks (an expert on C4 news last night was saying the antipodeans have basically sacrificed foreign travel in order to have a normal life domestically).

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, Homer said:

I'm not particularly arsed about the pub either. I would just rather be able to leave my house, say, every other day for the next year and not go abroad than carry on as we are but get a foreign holiday for a few weeks (an expert on C4 news last night was saying the antipodeans have basically sacrificed foreign travel in order to have a normal life domestically).

That does seem fair.

[zahidf]

4 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

If we let everyone else catch it in anything close to the same time then we'll end up with already stretched hospitals tipping over into overwhelmed again as the lower percentage of younger people in hospital becomes a big absolute number, not to mention further delayed treatments/surgeries etc.

The only sensible option for the NHS is to open up when most of the population is vaccinated, and keep things at tier 2 levels at best until then, with maybe household mixing added outdoors in summer. But that will ruin the economy so who knows...

I dont see the social contract for sticking the rules to last past all over 50s having a jab . If deaths massively reduce because of the vax programme, people will just household mixing anyway 

[efcfanwirral]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

I dont see the social contract for sticking the rules to last past all over 50s having a jab . If deaths massively reduce because of the vax programme, people will just household mixing anyway 

and that's fine for the vast majority I guess - some of us will some of us won't, same as when pubs open -that'll keep the numbers manageable but not good I imagine. Chances of gigs or capacity-less pubs are low til next year I'd imagine

Edited February 11, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[zahidf]