Weather 2017

[mjsell]

6 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

How important is the spinning of the earth in moving the air about?

The earth spins?

Learn something new every day.

[Nobody Interesting]

Just now, mjsell said:

The earth spins?

Learn something new every day.

Yep

Pretty much like this

[Mr.Tease]

2 minutes ago, Tommy101 said:

 

 

Basically this:

Inconsistent radiation from the Sun to the Earth due to its curvature, depth of atmosphere and cloud cover (among other things) causes some spots to get more heat than others. When air heats up it rises (low pressure) spills out in all horizontal directions (wind) cools and can then drop back down (high pressure). When air cools it decreases it's energy capacity to store water which is why clouds and rain form. For more info check out Hadley cells (and associated air streams), and combine it with the Coriolis effect (the same force that is said to be responsible for the direction water flows down your sink which QI said was a myth but definitely does cause weather systems and front to spin) as well as oceanic currents and their impact and you basically have global weather modelling.

Can you tell that was the first time I was able to use my Geography degree in 5 years? Apols if it was OTT.

 

Perfect, thanks! Sounds like it's time we started monitoring the sun! Thanks to everyone who answered my question, I have learned much! 

[Tommy101]

8 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

How important is the spinning of the earth in moving the air about?

I was typing longer post above when you posted this; it is important because it adds another dimension to all of the circular cells, which means they interact more with each other/catch up with each other. When this happens you can get frontal rainfall (when a hot and cold body of air meet, the hot air rises above the cold and cools quickly, water vapour condenses and clouds/rain form).

Long and short is rain is caused by 3 things, convection (i.e. my first post), frontal (the above) and relief, which is when land/mountain ranges get in the way of air and push it up to get cooler.

[briddj]

Just a few showers today now. Lots of lovely wind and drying going on.

[big__phil]

I always learn loads about weather from this thread....then forget it all within a matter of weeks. Such is the cycle of the eFests Glastonbury weather thread.

[majormajormajor]

1 hour ago, mjsell said:

 

Do you guys not have any alternatives to cycling? On a day like this I'd be opening the door and

 

Not today, as I'm an idiot. I cycled to my Mrs' last night and left all my clothes at work, so all I had was cycling gear. Couldn't really wear that on the bus 

[squirrelarmy]

32 minutes ago, mjsell said:

The earth spins?

Learn something new every day.

 

32 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

Yep

Pretty much like this

I always knew the earth was flat! Thanks for the proof

[Glastonlocal]

45 minutes ago, briddj said:

Just a few showers today now. Lots of lovely wind and drying going on.

Forest fires easily get out of control at this time of year. 

[DownboundTrain52]

Ye NME - bastion of reputable truth and justice etc etc. - have a rather positive advance forecast with a top 25% chance of rain for the week. Naturally, highly suspicious.

[somecoolusername]

This weather is giving me the fear. 

Though it seems to be clearing up a bit (i.e. it is no longer raining horizontally)

[Grinding aftertaste]

Long range forecast from the Met Office isn't sounding too bad today:

Forecast Summary

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Jun 2017 to Tuesday 20 Jun 2017:

An unsettled outlook is likely at the start of the period. Windy with showers or perhaps more persistent rain for most areas but some intermittent drier spells; these more likely further east. Rain will be heavy at times, this more likely in the north and west where thunder could feature. Thundery outbreaks could also affect the south-east with the introduction of some warmer air from the continent. The unsettled theme looks set to continue, particularly in north-western areas with stronger winds and some further spells of rain likely, but perhaps drier and brighter in the south. A period of more settled weather should then develop which may bring drier and brighter conditions across the UK by mid-week, feeling warmer by day but sometimes chilly overnight.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 21 Jun 2017 to Wednesday 5 Jul 2017:

A quiet spell of weather seems more likely around the start of this period with settled, bright and mainly dry conditions, especially for southern areas. Signals then become rather weak, but favour a more changeable picture with spells of rain or showers; these most frequent in western areas, with drier interludes. Temperatures look most likely to be above normal, with a chance of some very warm weather perhaps for eastern areas. However, there is low confidence for this scenario.

[richy24]

41 minutes ago, Grinding aftertaste said:

Long range forecast from the Met Office isn't sounding too bad today:

Forecast Summary

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Jun 2017 to Tuesday 20 Jun 2017:

An unsettled outlook is likely at the start of the period. Windy with showers or perhaps more persistent rain for most areas but some intermittent drier spells; these more likely further east. Rain will be heavy at times, this more likely in the north and west where thunder could feature. Thundery outbreaks could also affect the south-east with the introduction of some warmer air from the continent. The unsettled theme looks set to continue, particularly in north-western areas with stronger winds and some further spells of rain likely, but perhaps drier and brighter in the south. A period of more settled weather should then develop which may bring drier and brighter conditions across the UK by mid-week, feeling warmer by day but sometimes chilly overnight.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 21 Jun 2017 to Wednesday 5 Jul 2017:

A quiet spell of weather seems more likely around the start of this period with settled, bright and mainly dry conditions, especially for southern areas. Signals then become rather weak, but favour a more changeable picture with spells of rain or showers; these most frequent in western areas, with drier interludes. Temperatures look most likely to be above normal, with a chance of some very warm weather perhaps for eastern areas. However, there is low confidence for this scenario.

"Quiet Weather" sounds good to me!

[BlackZeppelin]

3 hours ago, Tommy101 said:

 

 

Basically this:

Inconsistent radiation from the Sun to the Earth due to its curvature, depth of atmosphere and cloud cover (among other things) causes some spots to get more heat than others. When air heats up it rises (low pressure) spills out in all horizontal directions (wind) cools and can then drop back down (high pressure). When air cools it decreases it's energy capacity to store water which is why clouds and rain form. For more info check out Hadley cells (and associated air streams), and combine it with the Coriolis effect (the same force that is said to be responsible for the direction water flows down your sink which QI said was a myth but definitely does cause weather systems and front to spin) as well as oceanic currents and their impact and you basically have global weather modelling.

Can you tell that was the first time I was able to use my Geography degree in 5 years? Apols if it was OTT.

 

Mrs BlackZeppelin  asked me what I'm looking at on my phone in bed at this hour.

I just said 'Hadley Cells'

That ended that discussion

[Woffy]

13 minutes ago, richy24 said:

"Quiet Weather" sounds good to me!

Silent, but deadly. 

[Woffy]

3 hours ago, Tommy101 said:

 

 

Basically this:

Inconsistent radiation from the Sun to the Earth due to its curvature, depth of atmosphere and cloud cover (among other things) causes some spots to get more heat than others. When air heats up it rises (low pressure) spills out in all horizontal directions (wind) cools and can then drop back down (high pressure). When air cools it decreases it's energy capacity to store water which is why clouds and rain form. For more info check out Hadley cells (and associated air streams), and combine it with the Coriolis effect (the same force that is said to be responsible for the direction water flows down your sink which QI said was a myth but definitely does cause weather systems and front to spin) as well as oceanic currents and their impact and you basically have global weather modelling.

Can you tell that was the first time I was able to use my Geography degree in 5 years? Apols if it was OTT.

 

Hadley cells - or their equivalent - also apply to tectonics and the movement of magma at both divergent and convergent plate boundaries resulting in both destruction and construction of the lithosphere as part of extensional and thrust tectonics, don't they?

[justperfect]

Love the subtle way they cover their backs by adding the line "however there is low confidence for this scenario"

[Tommy101]

22 minutes ago, Woffy said:

Hadley cells - or their equivalent - also apply to tectonics and the movement of magma at both divergent and convergent plate boundaries resulting in both destruction and construction of the lithosphere as part of extensional and thrust tectonics, don't they?

They are in essence both modeled convection currents. I have to confess that I'm slightly more ignorant about tectonics than I am about climate but both principles stem from the same Newtonian Laws. 

[40 Days]

In the least scientific way possible, I'm quite happy for it piss it down for the next 10 days and have the weather get all the rain out of its system, as it were - clearing the way for glorious, dry weather during the festival.

[Tommy101]

Fair warning before anyone reads anymore about the global climate models - the more you know the less you enjoy disaster films.

Nothing ruins and already crap film like The Day After Tomorrow than noticing that the global circulation pattern that there scientists are using are moving in the wrong direction. I know they're not meant to be realistic but they should at least talk to any sort of scientist at some point before making a film about it.

[MrMac]

3 hours ago, somecoolusername said:

This weather is giving me the fear. 

Though it seems to be clearing up a bit (i.e. it is no longer raining horizontally)

I'm no weather buff, but to my mind horizontal rain is ok for the ground as it never actually lands?

[BagpussSeesAllThings]

The sun has stuck it's head out in London!

[JoeyT]

Someone over on the Netweather Forum's who seems to know their weather onions has just written a massive analytical post regarding the weather.

The end of it is as follows:

Quote

Looking further ahead, subject to return of the tropical cycle eastwards once more, that sets up the prospect of another heating trend occurring through late June, as the ridge by this time edges back to the east to re-engage the trough as recently. Therefore more heat and humidity possible as time goes on - more especially late June and into July

So reasonable prospect of some fine pleasantly warm weather to banish this weeks dismal offerings to the perspective of a temporary if unwelcome memory - though the trough may return close to north western parts at times.  

Latest ECM 4 weekly shows continuity from previous updates and reasonably reflects steady improvements for second half of the month and especially late month and into July

Here is the link for those interested:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/87748-model-output-discussions-12z-01062017/?page=5#comment-3587545

 

[somecoolusername]

I can only ever believe the weather at Glastonbury is going to be whatever it is at the current time wherever I am.

So this morning: fucked

Now the sun has come out: great 

[Losing my hair]

45 minutes ago, somecoolusername said:

I can only ever believe the weather at Glastonbury is going to be whatever it is at the current time wherever I am.

So this morning: fucked

Now the sun has come out: great 

As accurate as any other forecast this far out.