The Weather Thread 2024

[Alvoram]

31 minutes ago, Superscally said:

Excellent. All of this. Especially the fact that Corey must be feeling better.

Hopefully he's hitting a good place. Corey was my surprise of the day... Brilliant. Never really got into Slipknot, outside of the obvious more popular songs... But my god that voice is incredible!!! 

[compactdisc]

Could someone please explain the difference between the operational run and all of the others?

Edited June 17, 2024 by compactdisc
manners

[balti-pie]

39 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

Hopefully he's hitting a good place. Corey was my surprise of the day... Brilliant. Never really got into Slipknot, outside of the obvious more popular songs... But my god that voice is incredible!!! 

Offtopic, so soz everyone else, but how were Machine Head? I bloody love a bit of Machine Head! 

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

9 minutes ago, compactdisc said:

Could someone please explain the difference between the operational run and all of the others?

As I understand it, the GFS Operational is a single forecast, the Mean is the average of multiple runs (with multiple different outcomes) so the more extreme elements are removed from the picture. It's basically the average of the forecasts. 

[devonhammer]

15 minutes ago, compactdisc said:

Could someone please explain the difference between the operational run and all of the others?

 

GFS Operational Runs are high-resolution weather forecasting models that use a single set of initial conditions to predict weather. They are the main models used for forecasting.

GFS Ensemble Runs are multiple forecasts run together but with slightly different initial conditions. This approach helps to account for uncertainties in the weather prediction process by showing a range of possible outcomes.

 

If the operational run gets a low pressure off by 10 miles then this could cause a spiral as forecast after forecast compound the mistake (a forecast every 4 hours with the next based on the previous). What we want is agreement between the various runs.

[devonhammer]

8 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

As I understand it, the GFS Operational is a single forecast, the Mean is the average of multiple runs (with multiple different outcomes) so the more extreme elements are removed from the picture. It's basically the average of the forecasts. 

 

That's it, but the mean is the average of the low-res runs. The operational is the only high-res run.

[Beerqueen]

 

...but I think it's looking good?  (though a bit too hot for me if I'm being picky)

[AdrianH]

7 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

As I understand it, the GFS Operational is a single forecast, the Mean is the average of multiple runs (with multiple different outcomes) so the more extreme elements are removed from the picture. It's basically the average of the forecasts. 

 

My understanding is that the GFS operational runs at a higher resolution than it's ensembles. Each ensemble has a slightly different starting criteria which then can lead to a variety of different outcomes. The mean is just an average of all of the runs put together so is useful in seeing the overall trend.

[Alvoram]

24 minutes ago, balti-pie said:

Offtopic, so soz everyone else, but how were Machine Head? I bloody love a bit of Machine Head! 

I got dragged there kicking and screaming... I'm not a fan... HOWEVER, the person that dragged me there is a huge fan and was having an absolute blast, and the performance seemed good to me. I just enjoyed the fact he was enjoying it so much. He did say the playlist could have been better for him personally, and was really pissed off they hadn't played Halo at first, but they came back and did that, so all was forgiven. (Halo is great btw, even I can think that.) It was the most lively I'd seen him all day, despite the fact we were right at the back, so it was good to see.  

I can ask him which songs he wanted that weren't played if nobody else replies? 

Edited June 17, 2024 by Alvoram

[devonhammer]

Glad everyone is so interested. Can we carry on the weather forecasting discussion?

 

As another point resolution is what you'd think i.e. the size of the grids on the ground.

 

The ECMWF has a higher resolution than GFS, and Met Office higher than ECMWF hence better accuracy.

 

This might be useful: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System

Edited June 17, 2024 by devonhammer

[Tiesto13]

1 hour ago, Aragorn said:

 

 

The operational run is somewhat more optimistic than the mean of all runs for the opening of the festival, the precipitation chart shows a number of runs are interested in bringing some rain in.  

 

 

 

That yellow run looks interesting.

[devonhammer]

4 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

and YR updates to prove, if any proof was needed, that this is one big roller coaster we are all on.

YR is Norweigan and is the best forecaster if you're going to a festival in Scandinavia:

 

"The calculation of the weather’s development is made in a 3D grid. The squares in this grid are 2.5 kilometers wide for the Scandinavian region and around 9 kilometers for the rest of the world."

Weather forecasts on Yr - how are they made? – Yr help and information

Edited June 17, 2024 by devonhammer

[SighMo]

20 minutes ago, Tiesto13 said:

 

That yellow run looks interesting.

It really does. 
 

why?🙃

[Ayrshire Chris]

5 minutes ago, SighMo said:

It really does. 
 

why?🙃

Yellow run? Could mean pissing down😉😊

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

Yellow run? Could mean pissing down😉😊

Or Coldplay 

[4AssedMonkey]

27 minutes ago, devonhammer said:

Glad everyone is so interested. Can we carry on the weather forecasting discussion?

 

As another point resolution is what you'd think i.e. the size of the grids on the ground.

 

The ECMWF has a higher resolution than GFS, and Met Office higher than ECMWF hence better accuracy.

 

This might be useful: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System

 

At the risk of going full geek on the science here, so you're saying that resolution means smaller grid areas and hence better accuracy on a micro level - i.e. c. 100 forecast data points as opposed to maybe 25 in a given area?  And the operational run uses the high resolution "micro" data, whereas the mean is an extrapolation of models using lower resolution?

[Blisterpack]

1 minute ago, 4AssedMonkey said:

 

At the risk of going full geek on the science here.....                                                                                                                                                         

It was a risk and I'm afraid it's now an issue....

[devonhammer]

22 minutes ago, 4AssedMonkey said:

 

At the risk of going full geek on the science here, so you're saying that resolution means smaller grid areas and hence better accuracy on a micro level - i.e. c. 100 forecast data points as opposed to maybe 25 in a given area?  And the operational run uses the high resolution "micro" data, whereas the mean is an extrapolation of models using lower resolution?

 

In a word, YES

[devonhammer]

25 minutes ago, Blisterpack said:

It was a risk and I'm afraid it's now an issue....

Never get in an argument with a monkey that has 4 asses

Edited June 17, 2024 by devonhammer

[4AssedMonkey]

Just now, devonhammer said:

 

In a word, YES

 

Cheers.  Understanding increased. 👍

[gherkin8r]

Can we get off science and back to wild speculation, pointlessly agonizing over each individual run and overreacting to any change.

[Dreamingofsunnydays]

It’s at this point I’m really really missing @pilton digger& @deebeedoobeewity the anti science thread. 

[briddj]

Right then. After a chink of light in the 06Z, how will the 12Z treat us?

 

Let's dive in!

 

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

 

This weekend is now completely dry, no rain of any note all the way through to gates open.

 

GATES OPEN & WEDNESDAY

 

Dry for gates open with very pleasant temperatures of 17-18.

 

Completely dry during the day with highs of 21-22.

 

Overnight temps into Thurs, 12-13.

 

 

THURSDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 24.

 

Overnight temps into Fri, 15.

 

 

FRIDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 25-26.

 

Overnight temps into Sat, 17.

 

 

SATURDAY

 

Ignore the bit of blue (nod to Peter Kay) that's so miniscule it wouldn't even be noticed. It's dry, with highs of 25-26 again.

 

Overnight temps into Sun, 14.

 

 

High pressure watch? Yes! More dominant with the low pushed back out over Greenland by the high pressure.

 

SUNDAY

 

Pressure drops slightly, so temperatures down to a high of 20. But completely dry.

 

Overnight temps into Mon, 10.

 

 

 

SUMMARY

 

A fantastic run, with no rain but perhaps too warm for Friday and Saturday?

 

But never mind that, there's nothing to be scared of in this run.... Will it continue in the morning?

 

 

 

[CaledonianGonzo]

A bobby dazzler.  A 2022 line-up of a run.

[Euphoricape]