When will this shit end?

[Andre91]

Our school is being wiped out at the moment. It's feeling a lot like December again.

[jimmillen]

Long thread on masks with lots of research links, if anyone’s interested. 

 

[BobWillis2]

2 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

Thorpe park yesterday and today.  Social distancing none existent.

We are set for a massive shit show come next Monday if it's left to the general public.   There is no way those polls about people wanting to stick to restrictions make sense as soon as you hit a place like this.

The polls are done by those at home still too scared to return to normal. Those ready to return to normal are too busy out having fun.  

[andyrhodes24]

2 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

I've barely even thought of the risks of latitude which probably proves them right - I just assume I'll catch it there to be honest.

Problem with the green light from government is that when I hear "be careful" I take that as "don't be in crowds" so I'm not sure how long that'll be allowed. It'll be interesting to see if football crowds are allowed after last night's mayhem at Wembley 

Same here, the thought of being in a crowd doesn't bother me at all, especially when I'll be double-vaccinated by the time R&L comes around. I was in crowds when Leeds went up last summer but after a few cans you don't think twice about it so I doubt anyone at festivals will really care. If you're bothered by crowds at a festival in Covid times you're in the wrong place really.

The Government's stance on the England semi final/final was baffling, it's like they weren't expecting chaos yesterday before the second biggest game the country has ever hosted!

[slumberjack]

56 minutes ago, Andre91 said:

Our school is being wiped out at the moment. It's feeling a lot like December again.

Same here.  Our school finished on Friday and a lot of people aren't sending their kids in this week as they have holidays booked for next week and don't want to risk their kids having to isolate.  It's crazy, earlier this year you couldn't do anything as everything was closed and, now that things are opening up, people are avoiding doing things (or keeping kids off school!) as they don't want to risk having to isolate! 

[kalifire]

2 hours ago, MrBarry465 said:

So basically the government have bottled it and realised that this big bang approach probanly ain't such a good idea after all (which anyone with half a brain could have predicted) and they now want to shift the blame on the public again?

They’re trying to have their cake and eat it. Seeking favour with the people who are anti restrictions by easing them, and seeking favour with the people who’d rather they continue with this “irresponsible” rhetoric. So if this turns into a total clusterfuck, it’s the public’s fault for being irresponsible. If it somehow manages to work, the government take credit.

Heads we lose, tails they win. 

Edited July 12, 2021 by kalifire

[stuartbert two hats]

21 minutes ago, slumberjack said:

Same here.  Our school finished on Friday and a lot of people aren't sending their kids in this week as they have holidays booked for next week and don't want to risk their kids having to isolate.  It's crazy, earlier this year you couldn't do anything as everything was closed and, now that things are opening up, people are avoiding doing things (or keeping kids off school!) as they don't want to risk having to isolate! 

My niece's school "has had so many cases they qualify as an outbreak", so has closed early for summer.

[slumberjack]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

My niece's school "has had so many cases they qualify as an outbreak", so has closed early for summer.

I did wonder whether our school would make the same call early this week.

[andyrhodes24]

Anyone know if Boris is unveiling his plans to the Commons today or is it just a TV presser tonight?

[Matt42]

I wonder what the results would be if we put it to a referendum. Open the country on 19 July or extend restrictions?

Not a small sample internet survey filled out by people who want to keep us in a lockdown.

[zahidf]

8 minutes ago, andyrhodes24 said:

Anyone know if Boris is unveiling his plans to the Commons today or is it just a TV presser tonight?

TV presser with Javid in commons at the same time.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I wonder what the results would be if we put it to a referendum. Open the country on 19 July or extend restrictions?

Not a small sample internet survey filled out by people who want to keep us in a lockdown.

52/48

[FakeEmpire]

4 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I wonder what the results would be if we put it to a referendum. Open the country on 19 July or extend restrictions?

Not a small sample internet survey filled out by people who want to keep us in a lockdown.

I expect the public will vote in favour of extending restrictions largely because most people *think* they are following the guidance but are actually not.

 

[mcshed]

14 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Not a small sample internet survey filled out by people who want to keep us in a lockdown.

Whenever you see a poll you don't agree with you put it down to them polling the wrong people as if no pollster pays any attention to who they are polling. It's their job to turn their raw data into something more representative. They aren't always perfect, it's a hard thing to do but they are trying harder than you seem to imagine.

 

[st dan]

Wouldn’t be surprised if they stop publishing the daily case figures in the weeks following 19th July. By showing them it’s an open goal in terms of exposing how reckless the decision to do so may have been, and leaves them wide open for criticism. 

Edited July 12, 2021 by st dan

[jimmillen]

2 minutes ago, st dan said:

Wouldn’t be surprised if they stop publishing the daily case figures in the weeks following 19th July. By showing them it’s an open goal in terms of exposing how reckless the decision to do so may have been, and leaves them wide open for criticism. 

There’s enough transparency fans amongst the public health community than the data would leak almost immediately I reckon. Better for the government to be open about it. 

So of course, you’re probably right and they will try to stop publishing them…! 

[Matt42]

44 minutes ago, mcshed said:

Whenever you see a poll you don't agree with you put it down to them polling the wrong people as if no pollster pays any attention to who they are polling. It's their job to turn their raw data into something more representative. They aren't always perfect, it's a hard thing to do but they are trying harder than you seem to imagine.

 

 

20 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

The one released at the weekend polled 50,000 people - mostly done by researchers out and about.

Over 50% thought current restrictions should remain and only 23% thought stage 4 should happen on the 19th July.

Is that enough people for you or would you prefer to hand pick those who are asked?

No it’s just that polls are typically way off unless they are conducted on a mass scale with a crazy amount of resources (like the BBC exit poll) and conducted in a way in which they ask people what they actually voted for rather than what they might vote for.

The problem I have with polls is even the ones they claim have a diverse sample size aren’t exactly diverse at all. For one they seem to only monitor the views of people actually interested in taking the poll as a start. And those interested in taking the poll seem to all vote in a specific way. It’s like university polls where the sample size consists entirely of politics students.

Ive seen it happen myself and I’ve media outlets do it. They ask people who they know will skew the results in a particular direction. 

Edited July 12, 2021 by Matt42

[Havors]

1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

My niece's school "has had so many cases they qualify as an outbreak", so has closed early for summer.

Actual positive tests or just because so many isolating? Year 5 & 6 in my daughters school have finished for the year now as they had over half the year isolating because of a couple of positive tests.

[mcshed]

4 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

 

No it’s just that polls are typically way off unless they are conducted on a mass scale with a crazy amount of resources (like the BBC exit poll) and conducted in a way in which they ask people what they actually voted for rather than what they might vote for.

The problem I have with polls is even the ones they claim have a diverse sample size aren’t exactly diverse at all. For one they seem to only monitor the views of people actually interested in taking the poll as a start. And those interested in taking the poll seem to all vote in a specific way. It’s like university polls where the sample size consists entirely of politics students.

Pollsters use demographic weightings to change the output of their polls when they can't reach a totally representative sample.

Polls aren't "typically way off"

[stuartbert two hats]

5 minutes ago, Havors said:

Actual positive tests or just because so many isolating? Year 5 & 6 in my daughters school have finished for the year now as they had over half the year isolating because of a couple of positive tests.

Don't know, just had a group text from my brother in law.  I guess enough positive tests to effectively put most of the school into isolation.

[Matt42]

3 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

Sorry, but what absolute rubbish.

I could detail why but you would not believe it anyway.

The blind are certainly leading you well young man.

So I’m blind for not blindly accepting the results of one poll?

[Havors]

5 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

Sorry, but what absolute rubbish.

I could detail why but you would not believe it anyway.

The blind are certainly leading you well young man.

You cant deny that polls are not always accurate though.... they are weighted etc but the people deciding the weighting arent always correct. 

They do often give a good impression, but there is no harm in being skeptical 

[fraybentos1]

There are clearly a lot of people out there who are content with how things are cause at this point their life isn’t really impacted.

If you’re a retired guy in your 60s who doesn’t holiday abroad and main hobbies are golf and gardening and going out for dinner then you’re absolutely fine with how things are. 
 

Whereas for me my two fave things are going abroad and going to gigs, both of which are fucked for now.

[Matt42]

4 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

There is skeptical and then there is blindly ignoring the results of all polls based on things you have unilaterally decided to be fact - I refer to the post I replied to.

But I’m not blindly rejecting them I’m challenging them?

[JB15]

Do some of you understand the term “margin of error”?