When will this shit end?

[DeanoL]

11 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Lest everyone forget, deaths were low last summer, yet they were able to get high again. Of course vaccines change that calculation considerably, but "deaths are low" isn't exactly the mic drop some of you seem to think it is.

With our current level of vaccination (or the level of vaccination in the middle of June), will lifting all restrictions lead to another round of exponential growth, spiking deaths? I don't know and I suspect none of us here have carried out a rigorous statistical model to make an educated guess. But actual SAGE have and they're not so cocky. And everyone from both SAGEs is far more qualified than most people on this thread, (with at least one exception)

Yup, I do find it really weird too. "Deaths are low at the moment so we can open up, I can stomach some more death." The same people are often found arguing that loads of people are dying from untreated cancer, etc. because of the way the NHS had to operate.

I don't think people have connected the two yet. Every person not in a hospital with COVID when they would be under lighter is a spare bed for someone to finally get treatment that they've had postponed for a year. Or for something they've got during the past year that hasn't been properly sorted. 

That our exit from lockdown should be "irreversible" works both ways: when hospitals are converting COVID wards back to their previous function and resuming important treatment (of which there is a massive backlog) we shouldn't be putting them in a position of having to reverse that because people really want to go to the pub.

Yeah we could probably cope with more people being hospitalised, and those people would have a good chance of surviving as they'll be younger, but it'll still be at the expense of treatment for other stuff. But "think of the cancer patients" only seems to count as an argument against lockdown, rather than for it.

[gizmoman]

20 hours ago, Toilet Duck said:

Just for you @gizmoman!

Report on Vitamin D in Ireland here (with background information from the expert debate here)

Recommends 1000IU daily for the entire adult population...(with higher dosage for frail individuals). 

I was watching this conversation yesterday with Tim Spector and John Campbell and really starting to doubt after hearing what Spector had to say,

it's clear the human immune system is complicated and maybe Vitamin D supplements aren't the magic bullet we would hope for but it should be obvious that taking the supplements are a low risk and may give some benefit to some people, I've stopped taking them for now but will be out in the sun plenty this summer, will go back to 3000iu end of September. Will be interesting to see if the Irish do take up the 1000iu a day dose and if it has any provable effect.

[DeanoL]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

so, what you could have done is bubbled with someone else? 

 

Bubbling is low risk. Its even lower risk if you bubble with someone who is vaccinated!

We could (and did) bubble with one single person who lived alone. But we could have safely bubbled with two other couples who were taking the same approach to avoiding all contact that we were. We didn't though as that wasn't the rules, and while it's a tiny risk, if everyone did it, it'd have an impact, same as with vaccinated people meeting.

[fraybentos1]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Lol what?

 

A few months ago they did a special press conference telling us it might be a third (I think) more deadly lol

[gizmoman]

48 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Poor Aussies

 

That's what Varadkar said in Ireland, it's clear to me air travel is never going back to how it was, look at these two news reports today,

  https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/apr/12/france-ban-some-domestic-flights-train-available-macron-climate-convention-mps

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-56723560

When the BBC say "world's wealthy" they don't mean Bill Gates, they are talking about middle class westerners, the people who think nothing of getting on a plane or driving a large car whenever they choose. The policy is clear, they are going to try to limit flying to a minimum, putting restrictions on holiday flights is just part of that.

[mazola]

1 hour ago, philipsteak said:

Aye, it's been getting a little bit (and I hesitate to say this cos it's very easy to throw around) "Daily Mail" in here

Yep, been thinking similar. Except I was going to say Trump supporters (swap FAKE NEWS for FAKE SAGE, and Liberals for eggheads)

Not saying the posters I'm thinking about are Trump supporters, but it's the exact same tone and the feelings it stirs in me are the same.

[Simsy]

19 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

A few months ago they did a special press conference telling us it might be a third (I think) more deadly lol

Breaking news: scientists change their minds as they get more evidence.

[northernringo]

It was about 7-10 days between vaccinations opening up for 45-49 year olds and then 40-44 year olds in NI if I remember correctly.

Our booking system opened up for 40-44 year olds last Thursday so I'm hoping that we open up for 35-39 year olds to book by the end of the month but that may be a little optimistic.

[efcfanwirral]

20 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

That's what Varadkar said in Ireland, it's clear to me air travel is never going back to how it was, look at these two news reports today,

  https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/apr/12/france-ban-some-domestic-flights-train-available-macron-climate-convention-mps

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-56723560

When the BBC say "world's wealthy" they don't mean Bill Gates, they are talking about middle class westerners, the people who think nothing of getting on a plane or driving a large car whenever they choose. The policy is clear, they are going to try to limit flying to a minimum, putting restrictions on holiday flights is just part of that.

Probably the right thing to do though? We'll never voluntarily give these things up so there's no real other solution than somehow restricting it. I'm terrible for it - I go on about climate change but always fly off elsewhere when I get the chance. I'm good on the car front though - never owned one and never will (unless they somehow create a sustainable one) 

Edited April 13, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[DeanoL]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

Probably the right thing to do though? We'll never voluntarily give these things up so there's no real other solution than somehow restricting it 

Still think it should be: meat, flights, kids - pick two.

[zahidf]

From the Barbican. Interesting! Wonder if it will make more shows viable

 

Thank you for booking some time ago to attend one of our 2021 Live From the Barbican concerts. We’re really looking forward to welcoming audiences back in to the Barbican Hall for live music from late May. Since these concerts originally went on sale, the government guidance on social distancing for venues like ours has been updated; we originally had seating bubbles arranged for social distancing at 2 metres but have now been advised that we can adjust to distancing at 1 metre.

[Quark]

Just now, DeanoL said:

Still think it should be: meat, flights, kids - pick two.

I need to dig something out from work I saw a few weeks back.  Breaks down average UK citizen's carbon footprint into chunks (travel, food, energy usage, "buying stuff") and was a really interesting snippet.

We've got no kids, gone veggie, one car (prob switching to electric this year) and before everything went nuts we'd shifted to one flight a year and doing as much as possible by train. And I still feel guilty every day of my bloody life 😄

[efcfanwirral]

5 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Still think it should be: meat, flights, kids - pick two.

First two without a doubt!!

[Simsy]

8 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Still think it should be: meat, flights, kids - pick two.

Steaks on a plane!

[gizmoman]

7 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Probably the right thing to do though? We'll never voluntarily give these things up so there's no real other solution than somehow restricting it. I'm terrible for it - I go on about climate change but always fly off elsewhere when I get the chance. I'm good on the car front though - never owned one and never will (unless they somehow create a sustainable one) 

Depends on your view of the "climate emergency" and how much you believe these things effect the climate, I'm all for doing my fair share to improve the environment and wealth inequality but when Gates and co. fly around in private jets and holiday on million pound yachts I'm somewhat less than keen to limit my lifestyle at their demand.

[stuie]

16 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Still think it should be: meat, flights, kids - pick two.

Easy choice for me. I’m looking forward to sausage in Berlin 🤭

[steviewevie]

22 minutes ago, Quark said:

I need to dig something out from work I saw a few weeks back.  Breaks down average UK citizen's carbon footprint into chunks (travel, food, energy usage, "buying stuff") and was a really interesting snippet.

We've got no kids, gone veggie, one car (prob switching to electric this year) and before everything went nuts we'd shifted to one flight a year and doing as much as possible by train. And I still feel guilty every day of my bloody life 😄

My freezing cold house is single handedly destroying the climate.

[steviewevie]

Nice to see happy people having fun in York.

 

[Quark]

Heartwarming to see Britain returning to normal

[philipsteak]

Nature is healing

[Guest]

Life always finds a way. 

[efcfanwirral]

Scientists/nudge unit/behavioural people must be tearing their hair out having to deal with him. I know what he's trying to say (lockdowns alongside vaccinations) but he's messed that delivery up so badly...

[Hannibal Schmitt]

Our health minister resigned today seeing 4 main problems for the future which he is unable to solve:

1) Variants, which always will pop up

2) one third of the people wo do not want to be tested

3) one third who do not want to get vaccinated and

4) Long Covid effects

So Corona Virus 1 Austrian Health Minister Rudi Anschober 0

[st dan]

4 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Scientists/nudge unit/behavioural people must be tearing their hair out having to deal with him. I know what he's trying to say (lockdowns alongside vaccinations) but he's messed that delivery up so badly...

I couldn’t listen properly as I was transfixed with his hair - who on earth cut that yesterday, and are they a qualified barber?! 

[steviewevie]

6 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Scientists/nudge unit/behavioural people must be tearing their hair out having to deal with him. I know what he's trying to say (lockdowns alongside vaccinations) but he's messed that delivery up so badly...

can't see much wrong with what he's saying. Cases were reduced by lockdown, and this then leads to reduced deaths. It's as cases rise again, if they rise, that hopefully shouldn't see a corresponding rise in deaths.

He wants people to remain cautious and not think it's all over.