When will this shit end?

[dingbat2]

It defies all logic and is total incompetence. If you believe tougher restrictions will be needed then why on earth would you ever wait to put those tougher measures in place. You know there is a bigger storm on the way, now is the time, for once, to be proactive, not reactive. Labour should be all over this, calling for tougher measures now. 

[efcfanwirral]

3 minutes ago, Radiochicken said:

The bit I struggle with is the “in 4-6 weeks we can change the vaccine” now surely that’s just the scientific work to understand how the vaccine needs to be changed? It’s not the safety, testing, manufacture, distribution etc etc etc. 

So it’s not really a 4-6 week delay if the vaccine doesn’t protect against a variant, it’d be quite significantly longer (??)

And how many times will it need to be done? If it's true that there is a variant that needs a new vaccine already then surely its likely to happen often? That would mean we dont see the back of lockdowns

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, El Matador said:

I struggle to see how any of those would make a significant impact. School closure is the only tool left that has the potential to make any change in my opinion.

Other measures feels like doing something in order to be seen to be doing something. 

I presume you haven’t seen how Australia , France and others have managed with curfews amongst the measures imposed .... ? Any limiting of contacts reduces the spread ... 

[Toilet Duck]

23 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Click bait from the sun ? But I will ask a question .... @toiletduckIf the virus did mutate ... I know they can adjust it fairly quickly .... do they then have to go through approval processes ? Or are they allowed to adjust it as they go ? So perhaps now are working on something to fit the new strain better ?  

All that would be required for the genetic vaccines (the ones we currently have) would be insertion of the new sequence instead of the old one. How well the new sequence works against the old strains would be a question that needed to be answered though. Additionally, we now have lots of phase 3 data for the existing ones and we know they are safe (giving them to billions of people may unearth some really rare side effects...general use is usually considered “phase 4” and the ongoing surveillance for side effects and their reporting is what supports continued use of any medicinal product)...so it would be preferable if we didn’t have to change them. The swine flu vaccine was approved based on a tweak rather than phase 3 safety/efficacy data and wasn’t a great example of structure-based approvals. Different type of vaccine though and slightly switching the coding sequence shouldn’t lead to the type of problem we saw there, but as always, we’re heading into uncharted waters! There’s a “boy who cried wolf” problem with these new variants. Most won’t make any difference, some may, but we become accustomed to them not amounting to anything so expect them all to be benign. Even now, the UK variant “looks” more transmissible, but we don’t know for sure. Prudent thing is probably to assume it is til we know otherwise. Will the SA variant evade the immune response? We don’t know, will it reduce efficacy of vaccines from 95% to 90%? 70%? More? Less? At what point does it make a difference? Nobody has the answer to any of these questions, but the sooner we suppress the virus through vaccination, the less frequently we’ll have to deal with changes in its genome. 

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

And how many times will it need to be done? If it's true that there is a variant that needs a new vaccine already then surely its likely to happen often? That would mean we dont see the back of lockdowns

I do respect Bell but it does seem he's speculating without providing any real evidence.

The vaccine companies seem confident

 

 

[Zoo Music Girl]

The South African strain is here already. They said that there were two cases here before they suspended air travel from South Africa. That was in the briefing. 

No idea if the strain is worse or the vaccine will work etc (hopefully it would), but just pointing out that it is here.

[jannybruck]

Curfews and schools closed are the only cards they have left to play at this points, they've fucked everything else. But combined with Tier 4 non-essentials closed then it could have a decent impact.

[steviewevie]

12 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

I would normally support schools being open in some capacity but right now feels too much of a risk and as a colleague of mine pointed out we as schools have a duty of care for the families we teach as well as the local community which locally to me has a lot of older residents, it's just so hard limiting the impact of the children's learning whilst keeping everyone safe 

yeah...agreed...it's really damaging to these kid's education, but at moment until we know what the hell is going on with these new variants I think best to shut them (and cancel those bloody GCSEs!).

[zahidf]

Good thread on why it's really difficult to film in hospitals

 

[El Matador]

6 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

I presume you haven’t seen how Australia , France and others have managed with curfews amongst the measures imposed .... ? Any limiting of contacts reduces the spread ... 

I can't see how a curfew has any significant impact. The streets are hardly full of people after 10pm.

Its also a move that makes me extremely uncomfortable from a civil liberty point of view. 

[CaledonianGonzo]

Scottish school closures look like there coming tomorrow

[Crazyfool01]

5 minutes ago, El Matador said:

I can't see how a curfew has any significant impact. The streets are hardly full of people after 10pm.

Its also a move that makes me extremely uncomfortable from a civil liberty point of view. 

it stops Travel to other peoples houses  and indoor gathering between those times as everyone out and about should be going to or returning from work so movement easier to control .... the longer this goes on the longer it takes and more restrictive the measures become which is in effect curtailing the civil liberties for longer .... or we could just piss around for longer and longer and get to the stage where we need permission to leave the house for anything .... I know what id rather have .... I dont fancy stage 17 lockdown 

Edited January 3, 2021 by crazyfool1

[steviewevie]

Palestinians excluded from Israeli Covid vaccine rollout as jabs go to settlers

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/03/palestinians-excluded-from-israeli-covid-vaccine-rollout-as-jabs-go-to-settlers

[Chapple12345]

10 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yeah...agreed...it's really damaging to these kid's education, but at moment until we know what the hell is going on with these new variants I think best to shut them (and cancel those bloody GCSEs!).

They have to cancel GCSE's and A Levels now, its totally unfair for them to lose out on this education and then not be properly prepared for them, especially after missing out of most of last year too - in other news my school I'm working in is going to fully close tomorrow and we have the local authorities support in doing so 

[MrBarry465]

36 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

Or in less click bait/sensationalist terminology: Bell is more worried about the South African variant as currently there’s not as much known about it due to lack of data coming out of South Africa. It probably is here given our interconnected world but the suspension of travel to South Africa should help reduce this. We are not yet seeing large numbers of this in our genomic sequencing here in the uk and it’s still not clear if the vaccine would work against this variant as more research needs to be done, although it’s current viral structure raises a concern that will need to be looked into more. Even if vaccines don’t work against this, we can develop a new vaccine within 4-6 weeks. It would not take a year like the current vaccines have, as it would only require a minor tweak to the current vaccine, meaning existing safety data should be sufficient to roll this vaccine out without the requirement for further trials to be undertaken

 

If it's mutating this quickly though and requires further vaccinations - that sets everything back. We are almost constantly playing catch up.

[Radiochicken]

14 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

And now would surely be the time to lockdown nationally and prevent that strain if it’s here already from spreading further and becoming dominant ? 

Yes, but its a worldwide problem right. If it’s left to rip around the world, then odds are the virus will mutate more. Say - extreme example - we vaccinate the whole population in the UK but a new variant springs up somewhere else and the vaccines doesn't protect us we’ve either a) moved to a New Zealand type model post-vaccination and can stop it coming in b) continue to be basically “open” and potentially have another mess on our hands (of which we’d be better prepared for but a mess nonetheless).

[stuartbert two hats]

13 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

All that would be required for the genetic vaccines (the ones we currently have) would be insertion of the new sequence instead of the old one. How well the new sequence works against the old strains would be a question that needed to be answered though. Additionally, we now have lots of phase 3 data for the existing ones and we know they are safe (giving them to billions of people may unearth some really rare side effects...general use is usually considered “phase 4” and the ongoing surveillance for side effects and their reporting is what supports continued use of any medicinal product)...so it would be preferable if we didn’t have to change them. The swine flu vaccine was approved based on a tweak rather than phase 3 safety/efficacy data and wasn’t a great example of structure-based approvals. Different type of vaccine though and slightly switching the coding sequence shouldn’t lead to the type of problem we saw there, but as always, we’re heading into uncharted waters! There’s a “boy who cried wolf” problem with these new variants. Most won’t make any difference, some may, but we become accustomed to them not amounting to anything so expect them all to be benign. Even now, the UK variant “looks” more transmissible, but we don’t know for sure. Prudent thing is probably to assume it is til we know otherwise. Will the SA variant evade the immune response? We don’t know, will it reduce efficacy of vaccines from 95% to 90%? 70%? More? Less? At what point does it make a difference? Nobody has the answer to any of these questions, but the sooner we suppress the virus through vaccination, the less frequently we’ll have to deal with changes in its genome. 

So could we actually switch over to manufacturing a vaccine for a different variant in 4-6 weeks, from sequencing to putting in a vial?

From what I understand, the actual development in the lab could be done within a couple of days?

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Chapple12345 said:

They have to cancel GCSE's and A Levels now, its totally unfair for them to lose out on this education and then not be properly prepared for them, especially after missing out of most of last year too - in other news my school I'm working in is going to fully close tomorrow and we have the local authorities support in doing so 

you work at a primary school?

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, MrBarry465 said:

 

If it's mutating this quickly though and requires further vaccinations - that sets everything back. We are almost constantly playing catch up.

my secret santa PHE mate said back in early December that he wasn't that confident of everything back to nomal in the spring because of the possibility of mutations the vaccines didn't protect against.

[xxialac]

4 minutes ago, El Matador said:

I can't see how a curfew has any significant impact. The streets are hardly full of people after 10pm.

Its also a move that makes me extremely uncomfortable from a civil liberty point of view. 

I live in a curfew country.

It seems to be working and above all stops young people congregating and drinking, which is an obvious cause of the spread.

They've got cases down to 12,000.

Curfew doesn't infringe my civil liberties given it's for a very valid reason during a global pandemic.

[MrBarry465]

Just now, steviewevie said:

my secret santa PHE mate said back in early December that he wasn't that confident of everything back to nomal in the spring because of the possibility of mutations the vaccines didn't protect against.

Anyone who thinks we will be back to normal by spring is smoking some lovely stuff.

We aren't out of this by a long shot - it will be 2022 at the earliest.

[MrBarry465]

4 minutes ago, Radiochicken said:

Yes, but its a worldwide problem right. If it’s left to rip around the world, then odds are the virus will mutate more. Say - extreme example - we vaccinate the whole population in the UK but a new variant springs up somewhere else and the vaccines doesn't protect us we’ve either a) moved to a New Zealand type model post-vaccination and can stop it coming in b) continue to be basically “open” and potentially have another mess on our hands (of which we’d be better prepared for but a mess nonetheless).

If the vaccines don't work - then they will need to go for aggresive elimination and that means proper lockdown for a year if not more. 

Edited January 3, 2021 by MrBarry465

[jannybruck]

2 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

 it will be 2022 at the earliest.

C'mon, of course it won't be.

[xxialac]

3 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

Anyone who thinks we will be back to normal by spring is smoking some lovely stuff.

We aren't out of this by a long shot - it will be 2022 at the earliest.

That can’t be right.
 

Johnson told us we’d turn the tide by May Autumn Christmas Easter

[efcfanwirral]

19 minutes ago, jannybruck said:

Curfews and schools closed are the only cards they have left to play at this points, they've fucked everything else. But combined with Tier 4 non-essentials closed then it could have a decent impact.

 

9 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

it stops Travel to other peoples houses  and indoor gathering between those times as everyone out and about should be going to or returning from work so movement easier to control .... the longer this goes on the longer it takes and more restrictive the measures become which is in effect curtailing the civil liberties for longer .... or we could just piss around for longer and longer and get to the stage where we need permission to leave the house for anything .... I know what id rather have .... I dont fancy stage 17 lockdown 

To be honest everything they add on like curfews is completely unenforceable in most areas. In a town where there are one or two police I'm sure it's easy to sneak out. 

We don't even enforce anything now - so its going to spread because lots of people just dont care. I know of plenty who are just living their lives like normal, seeing whoever they want etc.