The Weather Thread 2023

[kalifire]

Pfft, I'd take cold over muddy any day. You can always put on another layer.

[BambooShanks]

2 hours ago, ringRiff said:

We can’t let that bastard thread on the ground condition beat us 

Your attitude is angering the weather gods.  Please do better.

[BambooShanks]

21 minutes ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

when will the 6 hourly updates start???

Currently the GFS charts go up to the saturday before the festival so in 4 days they will go up to the start of the fest and 9 days for the entire festival.

FWIW, the next couple of weeks look like they'll be mostly fine so with each dry day, the chance of a 2016 mud bath is reduced

[andymk]

2 minutes ago, Big durbs said:

are we due a stick and jam jar report yet ??? lol

 

 

[WforWill]

Considering how wet it was a few weeks ago… it’s starting to get almost too dry. Crops are already starting to stress here (Wiltshire) so could deffo do with some rain before the festival. Reduces the chance of rain during the actual festival 🥴.

Also looking at the new marquee that has just been erected, you can see just how much dust are on the other two!

[The Nal]

Just a reminder of the 2016 vibes 2023 is giving off

1st June 2016.

UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Jun 2016 to Thursday 30 Jun 2016:

It should start mainly dry in the north and northeast, but for most the middle of June is likely to be unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain. These are likely to be heavy and thundery at times, with the west and southwest probably experiencing the most unsettled conditions at first, but there should also be some drier and brighter intervals in between. Later in the month the latest indications are that it will be changeable, with all areas likely to see rain at times, but with northern areas most likely to have the most rain and the south the best of any drier, brighter weather. Temperatures generally near or just above average in the north and warm in the south, where it may turn very warm at times

[cgall]

59 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Just a reminder of the 2016 vibes 2023 is giving off

1st June 2016.

I don't recall it being this dry in the run up to 2016 - either way, hopefully a dry warm run up over the next few weeks prevents a mudbath 

[DYRTFT]

18 minutes ago, cgall said:

I don't recall it being this dry in the run up to 2016 - either way, hopefully a dry warm run up over the next few weeks prevents a mudbath 

Similar doom and gloom in lead up to 2015 and it wasn’t all that bad. 

[tarw]

Oh no it’s 2005 all over again!

The clay ground baked hard then one big storm and the water just runs off on the surface instead of soaking in. 
 

The festival is at the bottom of a valley!

don’t camp downhill of any toilets- you might regret it

[sedra]

5 minutes ago, tarw said:

Oh no it’s 2005 all over again!

The clay ground baked hard then one big storm and the water just runs off on the surface instead of soaking in. 
 

The festival is at the bottom of a valley!

don’t camp downhill of any toilets- you might regret it

Nah - loads of drainage work since then and they bring in loads of wood chip now too. 

[clarkete]

4 hours ago, The Nal said:

Just a reminder of the 2016 vibes 2023 is giving off

1st June 2016.

UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Jun 2016 to Thursday 30 Jun 2016:

It should start mainly dry in the north and northeast, but for most the middle of June is likely to be unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain. These are likely to be heavy and thundery at times, with the west and southwest probably experiencing the most unsettled conditions at first, but there should also be some drier and brighter intervals in between. Later in the month the latest indications are that it will be changeable, with all areas likely to see rain at times, but with northern areas most likely to have the most rain and the south the best of any drier, brighter weather. Temperatures generally near or just above average in the north and warm in the south, where it may turn very warm at times

You whenever a weather report appears before the fest... 

[Sheffield Steve]

Last nights run of the ECMWF paints an ever more ominous picture.  Temperatures remain higher than average, a theme that it’s maintained for 6 runs now:

But the worrying trend is the rainfall.  It has always maintained average or slightly higher than normal rainfall for festival week, but last nights run ups the ante a bit… the whole of Europe now looks wetter, more of England looks wetter, and there is a much wetter blob over S Wales which wasn’t present on the previous runs.  Plenty of time for it all to change, but again this ties in with the Met Office forecast of rain for the south of the U.K. during festival week…

[Sasperella2]

21 hours ago, kalifire said:

Pfft, I'd take cold over muddy any day. You can always put on another layer.

You are both incorrect. 

The worst thing to be is wet.

Mud and cold are both basically fine if one's self and possessions are dry. 

[Sasperella2]

9 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Last nights run of the ECMWF paints an ever more ominous picture.  Temperatures remain higher than average, a theme that it’s maintained for 6 runs now:

But the worrying trend is the rainfall.  It has always maintained average or slightly higher than normal rainfall for festival week, but last nights run ups the ante a bit… the whole of Europe now looks wetter, more of England looks wetter, and there is a much wetter blob over S Wales which wasn’t present on the previous runs.  Plenty of time for it all to change, but again this ties in with the Met Office forecast of rain for the south of the U.K. during festival week…

Seriously though, what is going on in Scotland??? If this is the start of the El Nino, I'm a big fan. 

[Euphoricape]

27 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Last nights run of the ECMWF paints an ever more ominous picture.  Temperatures remain higher than average, a theme that it’s maintained for 6 runs now:

But the worrying trend is the rainfall.  It has always maintained average or slightly higher than normal rainfall for festival week, but last nights run ups the ante a bit… the whole of Europe now looks wetter, more of England looks wetter, and there is a much wetter blob over S Wales which wasn’t present on the previous runs.  Plenty of time for it all to change, but again this ties in with the Met Office forecast of rain for the south of the U.K. during festival week…

Still plenty of time for this to change though surely? Looking like a washout currently.

[The Nal]

29 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Last nights run of the ECMWF paints an ever more ominous picture.  Temperatures remain higher than average, a theme that it’s maintained for 6 runs now:

but again this ties in with the Met Office forecast of rain for the south of the U.K. during festival week…

This is really really worrying

[PolygonWindow]

8 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

Still plenty of time for this to change though surely? Looking like a washout currently.

It's a bit ambiguous atm due to people not knowing when/where the high pressure is going to end up. That avg rain in the ECMWF is thundery rain instigated by us in the south essentially being in the middle of a low and high i believe. Trends are heading in us having unsettled weather tho. Week before festival was being chalked up to be 'wet' by recent model runs but now it looks ok. It changes a lot, but ofc at this point you'd rather it be looking decent. It's a bit far out yet tbh to worry.

Edited June 2, 2023 by PolygonWindow

[briddj]

36 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Last nights run of the ECMWF paints an ever more ominous picture.  Temperatures remain higher than average, a theme that it’s maintained for 6 runs now:

But the worrying trend is the rainfall.  It has always maintained average or slightly higher than normal rainfall for festival week, but last nights run ups the ante a bit… the whole of Europe now looks wetter, more of England looks wetter, and there is a much wetter blob over S Wales which wasn’t present on the previous runs.  Plenty of time for it all to change, but again this ties in with the Met Office forecast of rain for the south of the U.K. during festival week…

TOO EARLY

[Supermerv]

What does this really mean though? Looking at the scale on the rain chart, it seems to mean that there is a 0-10% chance that rainfall during festival week will be above average, but what's average? If average means a brief shower, then could above average mean 2 brief showers? Also is it only up to a 10% chance that this is correct? If thats the case then those are pretty good odds.

Any chance someone could explain this to me please?

[briddj]

2 minutes ago, PolygonWindow said:

It's a bit ambiguous atm due to people not knowing when/where the high pressure is going to end up. That avg rain in the ECMWF is thundery rain instigated by us in the south essentially being in the middle of a low and high i believe. Trends are heading in us having unsettled weather tho. Week before festival was being chalked up to be 'wet' by recent model runs but now it looks ok. It changes a lot, but ofc at this point you'd rather it be looking decent. It's a bit far out yet tbh to worry.

I disagree on the last point - you don't want everything looking perfect this far out. Because it's so difficult to be correct this far out.

[PolygonWindow]

5 minutes ago, briddj said:

I disagree on the last point - you don't want everything looking perfect this far out. Because it's so difficult to be correct this far out.

I recall that ECWMF being REALLY bad 2 weeks (1 week?!) before the festival last yr, so yeah good point. 

Edited June 2, 2023 by PolygonWindow

[Havors]

You often find with these predictions and longer forecasts in general, that the timings are usually off. i.e. they can see rain coming but often ends up being later than expected. 

Thats my hopes anyway haha it can rain the week after the festival please. 

[paulshane]

19 minutes ago, Supermerv said:

What does this really mean though? Looking at the scale on the rain chart, it seems to mean that there is a 0-10% chance that rainfall during festival week will be above average, but what's average? If average means a brief shower, then could above average mean 2 brief showers? Also is it only up to a 10% chance that this is correct? If thats the case then those are pretty good odds.

Any chance someone could explain this to me please?

My take is:

It's probably going to be cloudy most of the time, and almost certainly rain at some point, but it's been very dry for a while now, so the ground won't be as saturated as in previous years, so less places to sit on the ground, but not difficult to walk around.

 

Obviously, I'm hoping i'm wrong and it's 'get naked in Lost Horizons' weather, but I'm preparing for all eventualities 🙂

[HotChipWillBreakYourLegs]

53 minutes ago, Sasperella2 said:

Seriously though, what is going on in Scotland??? If this is the start of the El Nino, I'm a big fan. 

Royal Blood certainly felt the cold up there.

[fightoffyour]

The forecasts this far out are invariably wrong so I'd rather it was bad now to be honest