The Weather Thread 2022

[JoeyT]

Just now, gherkin8r said:

I'm choosing to think like this.

Days 1-4 (high confidence): The heavy rain over this weekend and into Monday is no longer being forecast. WIN

Days 5-7 (med confidence): Dry and warm for the 3 day period while people are arriving and settling in.

Days 8-10 (low confidence): ignore for now 

It would be a good if a few of the sensationalists in this thread would read this and digest.

[benc]

I proposed a vote of no confidence in GFS

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Here’s how the run looks on MetCheck. 
 

Reinforces my point about if it’s not hot at Glastonbury then it’s raining. 
 

In real terms though it’s only half an inch of rain over 4 days, the ground can handle it but will be cold wet and miserable. Might as well be in Manchester. 
 

 

yeah, I might stay home and watch it on tv.

[FuzzyDunlop]

4 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Here’s how the run looks on MetCheck. 
 

Reinforces my point about if it’s not hot at Glastonbury then it’s raining. 
 

In real terms though it’s only half an inch of rain over 4 days, the ground can handle it but will be cold wet and miserable. Might as well be in Manchester. 
 

 

There isnt anyone happy with that. Too hot to begin with then rain.

It looks as though it's gunna be minging in the queue though.

"Might as well be in manchester"... put it in Rochdale. I'd walk. It'd save on petrol.

Edited June 16, 2022 by FuzzyDunlop

[AlexOvd]

I am just waiting for Nal.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, AlexOvd said:

I am just waiting for Nal.

his reverse psychology is not working out.

[squirrelarmy]

4 minutes ago, FuzzyDunlop said:

There isnt anyone happy with that. Too hot to begin with then rain.

It’s not great but it could be a lot worse. There’s no extreme temps or rainfall. Mud shouldn’t be an issue either. 

[Neil]

On 6/12/2022 at 4:46 PM, AlexOvd said:

AccuWeather predicting rain now every single day of the festival. Black Sunday. 

wont be too bad as the ground will stay firm, grass and trees will suck up the water quick this time of year.

[stopwn1981]

What’s the latest from the UK and EU ones? Given that GFS is a piece of shit and had to fall in line with these to get 2019 right at the last minute?

[JoeyT]

2 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

What’s the latest from the UK and EU ones? Given that GFS is a piece of shit and had to fall in line with these to get 2019 right at the last minute?

Latest ECM run has probably started now and will finish around 8am.

[Ayrshire Chris]

[Billy Corgan's Ego]

22 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Here’s how the run looks on MetCheck. 
 

Reinforces my point about if it’s not hot at Glastonbury then it’s raining. 
 

In real terms though it’s only half an inch of rain over 4 days, the ground can handle it but will be cold wet and miserable. Might as well be in Manchester. 
 

 

That's about as bad as it gets 

[Aragorn]

The UKMO is not great -  a low over the bay of biscay and a low to the north squeeze out the high by Wednesday. Slightly worrying as this a decent model

 

 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Aragorn

[jparx]

2 minutes ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

BBC hedging their bets a touch there 😂 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, briddj said:

OK then, let's get started with the 00Z run. How will we do after last night's HORROR 18Z?

THIS WEEKEND

No rain at all, just like the 18Z.

 

GATES OPEN - WEDNESDAY MORNING

It's been completely dry thought to now. Highs of 18. Warm for this early.

 

HOW HAS THE PRESSURE DEVELOPED?

Unfortunately this is copying the 18Z and showing real influence growing from the low to the north.

 

What about the first days of the festival?

WEDNESDAY

Totally dry, highs of 22.

But the high pressure is showing some balls for now.

THURSDAY

Dry, highs of 24.

Now the low pressure is pushing down....

And onto the festival proper!

FRIDAY

This is worse than the last run, with lots of rain on the Friday. It starts midday and doesn't stop until 9am Saturday morning. Highs of 19.

And there is an especially horrible spell of rain between 3am and 9am.

And I'm afraid that's because the low has won.

 

SATURDAY

Threat of light rain around, highs of just 16.

The high is fighting back, but simply swinging the low across the south of the UK.

SUNDAY

Completely dry, highs of 18.

The low is now being repelled.

And for packing up?

MONDAY

Very light rain, high of 18.

SUMMARY    

Another bad update, and a warning to those who claimed it was a done deal for nice weather yesterday evening.

What happens with this low pressure from Wednesday onwards is going to decide our fate.

It is still too early and we can still get that fingering from the Azores high, but it also could be a miserable few days from Friday onwards.

We go again in 5 hours.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

To be fair, that's way better than last night's run. Just one very annoying day. That's the day with most of the best bands happening, so I'm very much not keen. But it's not as bad as the previous run.

[squirrelarmy]

5 minutes ago, Billy Corgan's Ego said:

That's about as bad as it gets 

It could be 30 degrees for the first few days, ending in a massive thunderstorm that dumps 4 inches of rain on to the site in a day. 
 

That would be as bad as it gets.

 

Luckily the models aren’t predicting anything like that. 

Edited June 16, 2022 by squirrelarmy

[stuartbert two hats]

3 minutes ago, Billy Corgan's Ego said:

That's about as bad as it gets 

It's not really.  Ignore the colours - those aren't large amounts of rain. Not drizzle, I grant you, but not "day stopping, hide in a tent until it finishes" levels of rain, like say, 2014. And it's absolutely nowhere near 2007.

[Andy0808 v5]

If I get fingered by The Azores, I’m definitely gonna need some after sun.

[Justcalledtosay]

1 hour ago, JoeyT said:

The way I’m looking at it is in the short term (now - Weds) which is much more reliable it’s looking good for us.

I’d much rather it that way round than the opposite. There’s still lots of time for things to change in the longer term.

Not for me. I think that’s the worst possible outcome. Having to pack two lots of gear and it pissing down for the music. Absolutely rank.

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, squirrelarmy said:

It could be 30 degrees for the first few days, ending in a massive thunderstorm that dumps 4 inches of rain on to the site in a day. 
 

That would be as bad as it gets.

 

Luckily the models are predicting anything like that. 

Again, that's not as bad as we got in 2007! BTW, despite all the uncertainty, that kind of weather doesn't seem likely at all at this point.

[morph100]

Is there a technical analysis thread on Netweather forums? 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, Justcalledtosay said:

Not for me. I think that’s the worst possible outcome. Having to pack two lots of gear and it pissing down for the music. Absolutely rank.

I think the point was that Wednesday's forecast is likely to be accurate (and dry), whereas Friday + Saturday's forecasts are likely to change.

For instance, this the the met office app. It stops next Wednesday, they clearly don't think forecasts further out are accurate enough to bother with.

[PolygonWindow]

Swear metoffice and bbc said it was going to be warm and dry for Glasto yesterday?

Am I losing the plot?

[DyatlovReturns]

1 minute ago, PolygonWindow said:

Swear metoffice and bbc said it was going to be warm and dry for Glasto yesterday?

Am I losing the plot?

Theyre all bastards for playing with us like this

[stopwn1981]

17 minutes ago, Aragorn said:

The UKMO is not great -  a low over the bay of biscay and a low to the north squeeze out the high by Wednesday. Slightly worrying as this a decent model

 

 

It’s all over