When will this shit end?

[Simsy]

39 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

I understand that, it just surprises me a little the government didn't align to term time, given that it's actually only one week extra of closure.  Maybe they are learning... 

I'm not sure it was deliberate. I think Boris said he'd announce the roadmap on 22nd and Gavin said schools would have 2 weeks notice before reopening, so this was picked up as schools can't reopen before 8th March. It is sensible, but sounds to me like left hand not knowing what right hand is doing, rather than a cunning plan from this gov.

[zahidf]

 

[Mr.Tease]

14 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

@Ozanne would have us in an Australia/Wuhan style lockdown for months if not years on end if he had his way. It’s good that the more sensible heads on here understand that a roadmap, whilst maintaining flexibility to slow it down, is a good thing. 

And last year you'd given up on us ever finding a vaccine and didn't see why we should wait to see if the ones being trialed were successful, didn't want any further lockdowns, and thought Christmas in a pandemic would be a cracking idea, yet seem to have no problem ridiculing people for wanting to be cautious (as you have done throughout the entire pandemic).

[zahidf]

10 minutes ago, xxialac said:

This government is like being in an abusive relationship.

Yes, he's beaten me every night since we started going out but it's just he has a bit of a temper and he's a real sweetheart really...

The key decision-makers i.e. the Cabinet have proven themselves to be entirely self-serving chancers, completely out of their depth, slow to act and far more incompetent than any other UK government in living memory. Johnson has all these characteristics in spades and he is at the very top.

The results in terms of people's livelihoods relative to other countries, the state of the economy and UK's global standing won't improve until we have a different lot at the top.

This lot will continue to lie, they will continue to focus on pleasing their mates at the expense of the people, they will continue to make damaging decisions including through this next phase.

But the problem is if you JUST hate the government and assume all they do is shit, you have a go at them when they are doing  something right (like you and the vaccine programme) and then you lose credibility. 

I agree we should go slow, but the plan does seem to be going slow. Saying WE SHOULD GO SLOWER without putting forward a plan why isn't an alternative 

[Fuzzy Afro]

9 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

And last year you'd given up on us ever finding a vaccine and didn't see why we should wait to see if the ones being trialed were successful, didn't want any further lockdowns, and thought Christmas in a pandemic would be a cracking idea, yet seem to have no problem ridiculing people for wanting to be cautious (as you have done throughout the entire pandemic).

Well we don’t just have one vaccine now, we have five. Five very good ones at that. And all of the people who are likely to die from covid-19 will have been offered the opportunity to have one by the day after tomorrow (and the overwhelming majority have accepted)

 

And yet the usual suspects STILL want a lockdown. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

I actually think the plan seems okay. Schools need to be first and leaving a three-week gap between each stage seems sensible. Non-essential shops aren't a big risk transmission wise. And so many more people will be vaccinated by the time the pubs open. Hopefully sitting outside will be a thing by that time too.

I've been cautious and critical of this government throughout, and I think often with good reason, but the vaccines do change the situation. Let's see how it goes, monitor each stage, and be ready to act if things go tits up (which is where they've failed previously).

Any mention of gyms in that roadmap?

[xxialac]

16 minutes ago, zahidf said:

But the problem is if you JUST hate the government and assume all they do is shit, you have a go at them when they are doing  something right (like you and the vaccine programme) and then you lose credibility. 

I agree we should go slow, but the plan does seem to be going slow. Saying WE SHOULD GO SLOWER without putting forward a plan why isn't an alternative 

I don't HATE the government. It's not emotive, it's based on evidence.

Let's look at last year. We had:

- the second weakest economy in Europe

- a disastrous Covid response, one of the worst in the world

- increased inequality

- increased internal divisions

- a weakening of international influence, with e.g. Brexit related actions and cutting the Aid budget

The government manages by opinion poll because they have no ideas of their own, other than their instinct to serve the powerful and replace competence with flagwaving.

Edited February 13, 2021 by xxialac

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

28 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Where is the data that shows compliance will fall? I haven’t seen any just anecdotal stories of people wanting to do things again. We all do but so far compliance has been high and data points to people still sticking to rules.

There is no data showing that compliance will fall, in the same way there is no evidence that compliance will remain. There is no evidence because it's not happened yet - the rules haven't changed in this current situation so we don't know what's going to happen. 

Do you honestly believe that compliance with rules won't fall when deaths and hospitalisation are very low? 

[Homer]

12 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I actually think the plan seems okay. Schools need to be first and leaving a three-week gap between each stage seems sensible. Non-essential shops aren't a big risk transmission wise. And so many more people will be vaccinated by the time the pubs open. Hopefully sitting outside will be a thing by that time too.

I've been cautious and critical of this government throughout, and I think often with good reason, but the vaccines do change the situation. Let's see how it goes, monitor each stage, and be ready to act if things go tits up (which is where they've failed previously).

Any mention of gyms in that roadmap?

I was gonna ask this. Gyms usually open with shops don't they? Am hoping outdoor sport will come back before that (would make sense).

[Fuzzy Afro]

18 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I actually think the plan seems okay. Schools need to be first and leaving a three-week gap between each stage seems sensible. Non-essential shops aren't a big risk transmission wise. And so many more people will be vaccinated by the time the pubs open. Hopefully sitting outside will be a thing by that time too.

I've been cautious and critical of this government throughout, and I think often with good reason, but the vaccines do change the situation. Let's see how it goes, monitor each stage, and be ready to act if things go tits up (which is where they've failed previously).

Any mention of gyms in that roadmap?

I think they’ll go hand in hand with shops and salons as they did before, but before hospitality.

 

Gyms are one thing that should never have closed tbh. Can’t close the place people go to stay fit and healthy and then act surprised when your fatality rate is a lot higher than other countries with healthier populations. 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

13 minutes ago, xxialac said:

I don't HATE the government. It's not emotive, it's based on evidence.

Let's look at last year. We had:

- the second weakest economy in Europe

- a disastrous Covid response, one of the worst in the world

- increased inequality

- increased internal divisions

- a weakening of international influence, with e.g. Brexit related actions and cutting the Aid budget

The government manages by opinion poll because they have no ideas of their own, other than their instinct to serve the powerful and replace competence with flagwearing.

Do we really know how badly we have handled it at the moment though? We have handled it badly upto this point. 

But the response to Covid should be judged at the end. 

You don't end the season with games still to play. 

[xxialac]

Just now, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Do we really know how badly we have handled it at the moment though? We have handled it badly upto this point. 

But the response to Covid should be judged at the end. 

You don't end the season with games still to play. 

I agree. Only one of my 5 criticisms was Covid-related. 

[xxialac]

Here are the results so far from 200 odd countries...

[Fuzzy Afro]

Just now, xxialac said:

Here are the results so far from 200 odd countries...

We are smashing it on vaccines though, other European countries will catch up on deaths due to the dallying on vaccines. Also some countries (Spain especially) have been undercooking the books on their death numbers. 

[jparx]

6 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Do we really know how badly we have handled it at the moment though? We have handled it badly upto this point. 

But the response to Covid should be judged at the end. 

You don't end the season with games still to play. 

That argument was valid last May. We’re far enough in to this now where it’s blindingly obviously we’ve done an awful job.

[BobWillis]

3 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Here are the results so far from 200 odd countries...

We report any death within 28 days of a positive test. I’m sure in the future when the need for fear and compliance is long gone the true number of direct covid deaths will be revealed. 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

1 minute ago, jparx said:

That argument was valid last May. We’re far enough in to this now where it’s blindingly obviously we’ve done an awful job.

We have done an awful job to this point.

If deaths fall off a cliff, the economy rebounds like the BOE think it will it's entirely possible that we are leap frogged in the shitness stakes by other European countries. 

I don't dispute a lot of that is probably more luck that judgement - but the government have been consistent in their rhetoric that a vaccine is the way out of this and they have literally put their money where their mouth is on that front. 

[st dan]

Like it or not, the emotions and livelihoods of the 68m people who live here now need to be taken into consideration. And I think it’s right to say that the majority of us have now had enough - lockdown fatigue is real.
With rapidly rising hospitalisations and deaths, this doesn’t need to come in to play at all, as protecting lives becomes paramount above all else. But as and when those figures begin to fall, some sense of normality does need to return after a year of restrictions.
To me, the roadmap seems to strike a balance of starting to open back up and beginning the long road to recovery, but also not rushing back at break neck speed to undo all the hard work. People will always have opposing views, but I think the majority will be on board with this proposal. 

Edited February 13, 2021 by st dan

[Chapple12345]

1 hour ago, jparx said:

Certainly seems like the govt is on a comms blitz today with those newspaper headlines.

I think they're throwing the ideas out there and seeing what people like/would adhere to most, that way they can construct a roadmap out of lockdown that gives restrictions people are willing to follow without risking any huge increases however I feel with the vaccine rollout it wont be as terrible as feared 

[stuartbert two hats]

42 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Well we don’t just have one vaccine now, we have five. Five very good ones at that. And all of the people who are likely to die from covid-19 will have been offered the opportunity to have one by the day after tomorrow (and the overwhelming majority have accepted)

 

And yet the usual suspects STILL want a lockdown. 

You're hanging an awful lot on the word "likely".

 

[Zoo Music Girl]

35 minutes ago, Homer said:

I was gonna ask this. Gyms usually open with shops don't they? Am hoping outdoor sport will come back before that (would make sense).

Yeah I was thinking probably with shops. Getting out the house to do something a few times a week would make a big difference to me right now.

[Fuzzy Afro]

5 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

You're hanging an awful lot on the word "likely".

 

Well it’s a sliding scale. Over 70’s are at very high risk, 60’s at high risk, 50’s at medium risk and for under 50’s it’s a glorified cold for most. Obviously there are a few tragic outliers and a few tremendous stories of oldies fighting it off, but largely it follows that pattern. 

[aj6658]

30 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Do we really know how badly we have handled it at the moment though? We have handled it badly upto this point. 

But the response to Covid should be judged at the end. 

You don't end the season with games still to play. 

Erm we do know? You're kinda just disregarding the last 12 months by saying look at it in the end.

- BoJo missed cobra meetings pre pandemic

- Said he would shake everyones hands setting the wrong impression 

- Lockdown 1 too late

- Dominic Cummings fiasco - untold amount of damage in public trust 

- School meals U turn

- Exam results U turn 

- Eat out to help out

- Lockdown 2 too late 

- Corruption by giving government mates contracts some of whom have no experience in the sector

- 22 billion on track and trace which does not work

- Lying at the beginning about people tested ( kept referring to capacity )

- worst death rate in Europe 

- Worst performing economy 

- 100k dead

- Kept our borders wide and open till this month - utter madness 

- Christmas going ahead (another political decision) 

 

The above is just off the top of my head, im sure there is more that I have missed. Regardless how the next few months pan out to the end of COVID - just half of the list above would be enough to conclude that the response has been nothing less than an utter failure. 

 

Taking your "you don't judge the season with games still left to play" analogy. If you won the league the previous year and by Christmas youre in the bottom half of the table, regardless, the season can be judged.

 

Edited February 13, 2021 by aj6658

[Toilet Duck]

1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Maybe not. Vaccinations and the weather appear to reduce spread, and since we've never changed the schools without doing something else at the same time before, we just don't know how much they contribute.

We'll see, fingers crossed, we might just squeak under 1.

We changed everything apart from schools in our 2nd wave (so shut non-essential retail, WFH, hospitality closed, but left the schools open) and cases went from a peak of 1200 per day down to 200 per day when they decided that it was Christmas and they should open things up again (and we know how that went!). So, with only schools open, it took us 10-14 days to get a growing wave back under control. I posted this before, but below is the %positive tests in different settings over a 4 week period from the end of November til the middle of December (as we emerged from the wave 2 lockdown and seeded wave 3). Schools weren’t the major driver basically (with the caveat that this was still old school SARS-CoV-2 and not the Kent variant)...kids had all sorts of symptoms and loads of them were tested, but far fewer actual cases than acquired in other settings...I think with hospitality closed and household mixing still off the cards til more are vaccinated, you could probably have schools open with cases around 10-15k per day and still keep a lid on things...lots of testing required and a close eye on the %positives required to see if it’s increasing above community levels as you do though...

 

edit: I should say though that there was a report from a town in Italy where the UK variant had taken hold and their schools were riddled, so, maybe start with primary and see how it pans out...

Edited February 13, 2021 by Toilet Duck

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, Mr.Tease said:

And last year you'd given up on us ever finding a vaccine and didn't see why we should wait to see if the ones being trialed were successful, didn't want any further lockdowns, and thought Christmas in a pandemic would be a cracking idea, yet seem to have no problem ridiculing people for wanting to be cautious (as you have done throughout the entire pandemic).

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