When will this shit end?

[xxialac]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

Plus it seems awfully quick to go from schools opening on 8th March to shops and pubs a month later. They need to take their time and see the effects of these things individually along with along people to mix more with other households. Why do we have to be back here again?

Absolutely. Unless we're talking about pubs outdoors only. Which, let's face it, rules out most pubs being viable plus early April ain't exactly toasty.

This is where the Mediterranean countries have a big advantage.

[xxialac]

Just now, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Yes - the projections that were quoted don't include the variation caused by schools reopening (whatever that might be). That is not saying schools won't open. Just that the modeling doesn't include the impact of that. 

Oh come on! Not another argument. 

If the argument is that we can open the pubs at Easter but we're not accounting for the impact of schools, then the only logical conclusion is that if we do account for the impact of schools, then the pubs will have to open after Easter.

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

3 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Oh come on! Not another argument. 

If the argument is that we can open the pubs at Easter but we're not accounting for the impact of schools, then the only logical conclusion is that if we do account for the impact of schools, then the pubs will have to open after Easter.

Nothing is saying the impact of schools opening won't be considered quite the opposite in fact. 

Its just saying that the model which provides the numbers quoted doesn't include the potential impact of school opening I assume because it's an unknown! 

No where is it saying we are opening pubs at Easter it says we are hoping to open pubs at Easter of the data supports it neared the time.

Edited February 13, 2021 by RobertProsineckisLighter

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Absolutely. Unless we're talking about pubs outdoors only. Which, let's face it, rules out most pubs being viable plus early April ain't exactly toasty.

This is where the Mediterranean countries have a big advantage.

Yes. Its pubs/restaraunts outdoors only in April. With indoors in May

The projections are for deaths and hositalisationsas per my tweet above. This is in the next month when schools are closed. Thats why reopening schools hasnt been included in the projections. 

[stuie]

3 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Oh come on! Not another argument. 

If the argument is that we can open the pubs at Easter but we're not accounting for the impact of schools, then the only logical conclusion is that if we do account for the impact of schools, then the pubs will have to open after Easter.

The impact of opening schools is unknown, until the schools open, right?

[xxialac]

4 minutes ago, stuie said:

The impact of opening schools is unknown, until the schools open, right?

"The projections are based on assumption that around 2m people will be vaccinated every week, driving down hospitalisation and deaths. They also reflect ongoing impact of lockdown. However impact of reopening schools is not included."

True but so is the impact of lockdown and the level of vaccination and they've been included in the forecast.

[Toilet Duck]

1 hour ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

In this analogy wouldn't 4000 infect 12000 when R = 3 though?

I didn't really explain that very well to be honest! (it's complicated). Time is a key factor (so the combination of Re/Rt and the serial interval contribute to determine how fast or slow the cases are increasing/decreasing) as well as the susceptible vs recovered population. I think the story just refers to the first time since July that all of the UK has an effective R number under 1. 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

3 minutes ago, stuie said:

The impact of opening schools is unknown, until the schools open, right?

Exactly. Schools have been closed so there is no data available to know what the impact of opening them would be. In reality this will be the first chance we have to see what the actual impact of schools opening is as it's the first time they will be the only major change in the level of restrictions. Cases go crazy schools are bad. Cases stay steady or keep falling. Its not schools are not so bad after all. Will be fascinating. 

[Ozanne]

11 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Absolutely. Unless we're talking about pubs outdoors only. Which, let's face it, rules out most pubs being viable plus early April ain't exactly toasty.

This is where the Mediterranean countries have a big advantage.

They need to spread it out more, have the schools open then wait 2-3 weeks then if the data supports open shops then wait and move onto the next thing - hairdressers etc. To do all of it in a month is so dumb. 

[xxialac]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

They need to spread it out more, have the schools open then wait 2-3 weeks then if the data supports open shops then wait and move onto the next thing - hairdressers etc. To do all of it in a month is so dumb. 

Completely agree.

Reasons for doing it the government's way in order of decreasing priority

a) keep the Tory backbenchers happy

c) save a lot of money on furlough

b) make Boris the hero for saving Easter

z) follow what the scientists are advising

Edited February 13, 2021 by xxialac

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

They need to spread it out more, have the schools open then wait 2-3 weeks then if the data supports open shops then wait and move onto the next thing - hairdressers etc. To do all of it in a month is so dumb. 

That is exactly what the plan is.

Stage 1 8th March Open schools. 

Wait. Then analyse. 

If it's ok to go so move to stage 2 (non essential retail).

Wait. Then analyse. 

If the data supports moving forward. Move to stage 3. 

It is all discussed in the first article linked to. 

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/lockdown-end-when-government-plans-roadmap-reopen-pubs-shops-schools-uk-travel-covid-rules-870809

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, xxialac said:

Completely agree.

Reasons for doing it this way in order of decreasing priority

a) keep the Tory backbenchers happy

c) save a lot of money on furlough

b) make Boris the hero for saving Easter

z) follow what the scientists are advising

Pretty much, they’ll be pressuring us to go back out spending again like last summer, look how well that turned out. As soon as the numbers start to fall it’s like they forget the panic from the few weeks prior.

Go slow, keep the financial support in place and have a good messaging campaign in place. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

9 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I didn't really explain that very well to be honest! (it's complicated). Time is a key factor (so the combination of Re/Rt and the serial interval contribute to determine how fast or slow the cases are increasing/decreasing) as well as the susceptible vs recovered population. I think the story just refers to the first time since July that all of the UK has an effective R number under 1. 

On the R number, I thought they’re just saying that it’s the first time since July that the range of possible R’s is ENTIRELY below 1?

 

Like, there have been plenty of times in recent months that it’s been 0.8-1.0 or 0.7-1.0 or even 0.9-1.1, but this is the first time since July that the UPPER BOUND is strictly < 1

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

24 minutes ago, xxialac said:

"The projections are based on assumption that around 2m people will be vaccinated every week, driving down hospitalisation and deaths. They also reflect ongoing impact of lockdown. However impact of reopening schools is not included."

True but so is the impact of lockdown and the level of vaccination and they've been included in the forecast.

The impact of lockdown is being seen now, that's why cases are falling. 

There are also signs of what is happening with the vaccinations coming from the actual vaccination programme, but also applying the outcomes from the trials to the cohorts already jabbed. Meaning we can sat with some confidence what is happening and what would continue to happen if we stayed in this situation. 

What we don't know, and why there are go / no go points in the plan is because we don't know what's going to happen when we open schools, or non essential retail or pubs. We will have an indication once schools open at this point we won't be guessing the impact of schools opening we will be seeing it, same for the second and third stage. 

What happened last summer isn't necessarily what will happen this summer because the vaccination is now in play. 

Edited February 13, 2021 by RobertProsineckisLighter

[Gilgamesh69]

This is the worst thread ever. 

[Toilet Duck]

8 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

On the R number, I thought they’re just saying that it’s the first time since July that the range of possible R’s is ENTIRELY below 1?

 

Like, there have been plenty of times in recent months that it’s been 0.8-1.0 or 0.7-1.0 or even 0.9-1.1, but this is the first time since July that the UPPER BOUND is strictly < 1

I don’t really know why they persist in using R as the way of communicating what’s happening with the pandemic (I guess it’s a single number and on the surface it seems simple, but there’s a lot of complicated maths within it). They use it here too. Growth rate or doubling times are much easier concepts to grasp (and we can clearly see them and understand them). Anyway, the numbers of susceptible individuals are shrinking (prior infection + vaccination), so doubling times should get longer and longer as there are fewer people to infect. 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

2 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I don’t really know why they persist in using R as the way of communicating what’s happening with the pandemic (I guess it’s a single number and on the surface it seems simple, but there’s a lot of complicated maths within it). They use it here too. Growth rate or doubling times are much easier concepts to grasp (and we can clearly see them and understand them). Anyway, the numbers of susceptible individuals are shrinking (prior infection + vaccination), so doubling times should get longer and longer as there are fewer people to infect. 

Out of interest whats sort of R rate / doubling time would we be looking at for some other viruses that are out there in standard conditions. How infectious is Coronavirus compared to others?

Edited February 13, 2021 by RobertProsineckisLighter

[Punksnotdead]

31 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Completely agree.

Reasons for doing it the government's way in order of decreasing priority

a) keep the Tory backbenchers happy

c) save a lot of money on furlough

b) make Boris the hero for saving Easter

i) Pablo Honey 

z) follow what the scientists are advising

FTFY

[Toilet Duck]

15 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Out of interest whats sort of R rate / doubling time would we be looking at for some other viruses that are out there in standard conditions. How infectious is Coronavirus compared to others?

Well, the R0 estimate (the basic reproduction number) is about 2-4 depending on the variant...but so many things impact on R0, and for a respiratory virus, indoor vs outdoor has a big impact...Measles for example has R0 estimates as high as 200! (Generally accepted to be 10-20 depending on the environment). So, broadly speaking it’s not actually that intrinsically infectious compared to other viruses. However, there’s quite a bit of variation in R for this virus (super spreaders). And the infectious asymptomatic carriers make it spread like crazy!

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

8 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Well, the R0 estimate (the basic reproduction number) is about 2-4 depending on the variant...but so many things impact on R0, and for a respiratory virus, indoor vs outdoor has a big impact...Measles for example has R0 estimates as high as 200! (Generally accepted to be 10-20 depending on the environment). So, broadly speaking it’s not actually that intrinsically infectious compared to other viruses. However, there’s quite a bit of variation in R for this virus (super spreaders). And the infectious asymptomatic carriers make it spread like crazy!

Ok cool that's really interesting thanks. 

I'm assuming mumps can be high too given the way they lock you away if you catch it at university. Not that you want to do anything with mumps anyway.

Edited February 13, 2021 by RobertProsineckisLighter

[Toilet Duck]

1 minute ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Ok cool that's really interesting thanks. 

I'm assuming mumps can be high too given the way they lock you away if you catch it at university. 

Yeah, similar enough to measles, super easy to catch!

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

Just now, Toilet Duck said:

Yeah, similar enough to measles, super easy to catch!

Fascinating stuff - so in essence we would be better off if Covid made more people just poorly enough to be bed bound than having folk roaming around unaware they are infected. 

[Toilet Duck]

3 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Fascinating stuff - so in essence we would be better off if Covid made more people just poorly enough to be bed bound than having folk roaming around unaware they are infected. 

Pretty much, and that was more or less the case for SARS and MERS, hence, they ain’t around anymore. 

[efcfanwirral]

1 hour ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

That is exactly what the plan is.

Stage 1 8th March Open schools. 

Wait. Then analyse. 

If it's ok to go so move to stage 2 (non essential retail).

Wait. Then analyse. 

If the data supports moving forward. Move to stage 3. 

It is all discussed in the first article linked to. 

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/lockdown-end-when-government-plans-roadmap-reopen-pubs-shops-schools-uk-travel-covid-rules-870809

I don't think "wait then analyse" is something the government will actually do, it won't wash with the backbench MPs or the public- I'd be amazed if the roadmap was changed once its announced 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

That is exactly what the plan is.

Stage 1 8th March Open schools. 

Wait. Then analyse. 

If it's ok to go so move to stage 2 (non essential retail).

Wait. Then analyse. 

If the data supports moving forward. Move to stage 3. 

It is all discussed in the first article linked to. 

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/lockdown-end-when-government-plans-roadmap-reopen-pubs-shops-schools-uk-travel-covid-rules-870809

They big unknown is how much they will actually react to the data.  Back in August, it was clear cases were going up, but they took forever to actually do anything about it, letting the cases get high enough for runaway growth.  Will they really delay the reopening if the R isn't low enough to safely continue?  We just don't know.