When will this shit end?

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

6 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Hmmm I doubt they will end support bubbles.. can’t see that happening there would be uproar. One hour exercise no one will stick to. Curfew is possible I could see an 8pm curfew or the like but doubt it would be enforced. Closing nurseries yep that could happen. Masks outside... depends if just in high streets where it could be enforced by police otherwise it could only merely be a recommendation otherwise people aren’t gonna follow that one either.

I think they could do with popping some support bubbles - childcare bubble or support bubble not both for example. Some folks seem to have more bubbles than the champagne region and there about as exclusive a swingers party. 

Rules don't have to be enforceable to make people complient. Its impossible to enforce drink driving rules everywhere - but the risk of being caught and the social responsibility makes it a far more adhered to rule than it used to be. 

 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

Just now, Ozanne said:

That’s a good point too, the decision to put those areas into tier 2 might also be crucial when we look back. From memory I think cases were still rising weren’t in London and Kent?

I think they should’ve extended lockdown by 2 weeks in December, then put most areas into tier 3 and cancelled the Christmas relaxation (whilst also increasing financial support).

They were far higher down there than many T3 areas - and from what I saw in the media and heard from friends down there people too the absolute piss. 

[Ozanne]

Just now, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

They were far higher down there than many T3 areas - and from what I saw in the media and heard from friends down there people too the absolute piss. 

Yeah that’s it. I saw a few people on my social media from London mixing households. Whilst it won’t have been the majority it won’t have helped alongside a more relaxed tier. 

[FestivalJamie]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

The good thing is, I'm still convinced the Zoe app will prove to be an accurate predicator of the future and the current measures are enough to bring R<1. But only just.

Without trying to cause *too* much controversy, Zoe should be taken with a huge pinch of salt. It relies on people reporting symptoms from home which will only be done by a certain demographic and lots of people have deleted the app post wave 1. Tim Spector is also very “anti lockdown” and is using the data to push his agenda. In November he was against the lockdown and post the November lockdown he was pushing for a further relaxation of restrictions and everyone to move down to the lowest tier (tier 1). Arguably it is the relaxation of restrictions in December which has got us in this position in the first place therefore I no longer trust his app or his data. He has also been saying sceptical things about how he doesn’t believe the new variant has higher transmission and that we should not be in a national lockdown etc.

[Ozanne]

3 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

I think they could do with popping some support bubbles - childcare bubble or support bubble not both for example. Some folks seem to have more bubbles than the champagne region and there about as exclusive a swingers party. 

Rules don't have to be enforceable to make people complient. Its impossible to enforce drink driving rules everywhere - but the risk of being caught and the social responsibility makes it a far more adhered to rule than it used to be. 

 

I’m not sure what bubble is more beneficial but I have a support bubble with my Sisters household however if it’s needed that those should be cancelled then I would support it. 

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

If we're going to relitigate the past, what they really should have done is have the half term firebreak and moved regions up the tiers more aggressively, combined with a unambiguous financial support.

Anyway, the main point is that there is more social activity in this lockdown than the last one, which seems fairly uncontroversial. So there may be a need to increase restrictions further. The compliance argument is pretty much besides the point.

The good thing is, I'm still convinced the Zoe app will prove to be an accurate predicator of the future and the current measures are enough to bring R<1. But only just.

...and going further back they should have set up a decent, working test and trace system over the summer to help prevent it getting out of control again in the winter.....

[Zoo Music Girl]

1 minute ago, FestivalJamie said:

Without trying to cause *too* much controversy, Zoe should be taken with a huge pinch of salt. It relies on people reporting symptoms from home which will only be done by a certain demographic and lots of people have deleted the app post wave 1. Tim Spector is also very “anti lockdown” and is using the data to push his agenda. In November he was against the lockdown and post the November lockdown he was pushing for a further relaxation of restrictions and everyone to move down to the lowest tier (tier 1). Arguably it is the relaxation of restrictions in December which has got us in this position in the first place therefore I no longer trust his app or his data. He has also been saying sceptical things about how he doesn’t believe the new variant has higher transmission and that we should not be in a national lockdown etc.

Is he? I've been reporting every day since lockdown 1 (and got a test this week because of it telling me to) but had no idea about his agenda. Mind you it's not just his app, it's a university study (King's College London).

[zahidf]

 

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, steviewevie said:

...and going further back they should have set up a decent, working test and trace system over the summer to help prevent it getting out of control again in the winter.....

And really, they shouldn't have elected Johnson as leader.

[jannybruck]

Curfew, limit on exercise, masks outside etc are pure theatre and would have minimal effect and only piss more people off that are already at the end of their tether with this.

The biggest transmission hubs right now are all the offices and businesses people are being forced to work in this time around, but – like schools – they'd much rather shift the conversation and gaslight the public into thinking it's your neighbour Dave going out for a distanced walk with his bubble that's spreading it, and not the hundreds of people stuck in workplaces in every town and city that the Tories are actively enabling because they want to keep the economy grinding along.

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

If we're going to relitigate the past, what they really should have done is have the half term firebreak and moved regions up the tiers more aggressively, combined with a unambiguous financial support.

Anyway, the main point is that there is more social activity in this lockdown than the last one, which seems fairly uncontroversial. So there may be a need to increase restrictions further. The compliance argument is pretty much besides the point.

The good thing is, I'm still convinced the Zoe app will prove to be an accurate predicator of the future and the current measures are enough to bring R<1. But only just.

 

Which is unfortunately a very key point. If you get the R down to 0.7 or 0.6, you get a rapid exponential decay where the daily case numbers fall to manageable levels very quickly. If it’s only a smidgeon below 1 then it effectively means we will see current levels maintained for the foreseeable with only small weekly decreases. 
 

I think the only way to bring it down quickly is a Wuhan-esque lockdown for 2-3 weeks and then wait and see after that. That would mean:

 

- No outdoor exercise. Only leave your home for shopping, work, or for urgent medical attention 

 

- Only people going to work are genuine key workers.

 

- Limits on when you can food shop. For example in Wuhan, I think one adult from each household was permitted out on a specific day every third day, meaning that the crowds in supermarkets could be controlled.

 

That should hopefully get the R down below 0.5. But I’m not arguing that a Wuhan lockdown is desirable or something we should be doing. Just that it’s the only way to quickly get the numbers down. 

[Matt42]

doing the rounds 

[Fuzzy Afro]

5 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Without trying to cause *too* much controversy, Zoe should be taken with a huge pinch of salt. It relies on people reporting symptoms from home which will only be done by a certain demographic and lots of people have deleted the app post wave 1. Tim Spector is also very “anti lockdown” and is using the data to push his agenda. In November he was against the lockdown and post the November lockdown he was pushing for a further relaxation of restrictions and everyone to move down to the lowest tier (tier 1). Arguably it is the relaxation of restrictions in December which has got us in this position in the first place therefore I no longer trust his app or his data. He has also been saying sceptical things about how he doesn’t believe the new variant has higher transmission and that we should not be in a national lockdown etc.

 

2 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Is he? I've been reporting every day since lockdown 1 (and got a test this week because of it telling me to) but had no idea about his agenda. Mind you it's not just his app, it's a university study (King's College London).

Spector is a bit of a talking head w*nker on twitter but the ZOE numbers have generally been predictive of case numbers a week or two ahead. They seem to think that a peak in new was reached a couple of days ago. 

[FestivalJamie]

4 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Is he? I've been reporting every day since lockdown 1 (and got a test this week because of it telling me to) but had no idea about his agenda. Mind you it's not just his app, it's a university study (King's College London).

All I will say is he was actively pushing for everyone to drop down to the lowest tier in December...

[FestivalJamie]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

 

Spector is a bit of a talking head w*nker on twitter but the ZOE numbers have generally been predictive of case numbers a week or two ahead. They seem to think that a peak in new was reached a couple of days ago. 

The only thing I would say is it relies on people reporting symptoms at home on the app, and that’s not necessarily reflective of the current demographic catching the virus. It also doesn’t reflect people catching in hospital and care homes.

It’s a useful tool nonetheless as we don’t really have any other “real-time” data studies.

[Fuzzy Afro]

 

Today’s ZOE data just came out. Suggests 64k new infections, down from 67k yesterday. 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

15 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Yeah that’s it. I saw a few people on my social media from London mixing households. Whilst it won’t have been the majority it won’t have helped alongside a more relaxed tier. 

And the new variant (which was understood at the time to be fair).

My friend who works in London was saying that during those T2 days his colleagues were all going into the office on Fridays so they could go out after work on a Friday - stand in street drinking together etc... He declined. 

Another mate and his wife went out for dinner with their child to celebrate their wedding anniversary just to a local pub and nothing fancy, nice and early. They left before ordering because it was carnage. 

I've had other mates in London who were invited to unofficial Xmas parties back in the T2 days. 

Granted this is by no means 'hard evidence' but all things I've been told from good friends (people I used to share a house with) all in their mid thirties and sensible people. 

Granted this is limited experience but there are lots of these types of stories doing the rounds. 

Edited January 10, 2021 by RobertProsineckisLighter

[Copperface]

7 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

doing the rounds 

Anti lockdown/vax etc etc protestors. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

Anecdotally I heard from a family friend who’s a nurse in Essex last night that:

 

1) The hospitals genuine are very busy; and

2) Her one does have a lot of younger patients in their 40s and 50s compared to the first wave 

[topmarksbri]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

TONTY BLIAR IS BEHIND IT WITH BILL GATES

 

 

I'm a simple man - I see TONTY and I upvote.

[Ozanne]

Whilst there are some signs that London, SE and East are plateauing from ONS & KCL Zoe app. This is before (some) kids went to school and more to nursery. It's also before many went back to work this week. Sadly flat is not enough as London cannot cope with 800+ admissions every day which is nearly the capacity of some hospitals.

[FestivalJamie]

3 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Anecdotally I heard from a family friend who’s a nurse in Essex last night that:

 

1) The hospitals genuine are very busy; and

2) Her one does have a lot of younger patients in their 40s and 50s compared to the first wave 

Similar situation at the main hospital in oxford...

[Fuzzy Afro]

7 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Whilst there are some signs that London, SE and East are plateauing from ONS & KCL Zoe app. This is before (some) kids went to school and more to nursery. It's also before many went back to work this week. Sadly flat is not enough as London cannot cope with 800+ admissions every day which is nearly the capacity of some hospitals.

No it isn’t. 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

25 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Without trying to cause *too* much controversy, Zoe should be taken with a huge pinch of salt. It relies on people reporting symptoms from home which will only be done by a certain demographic and lots of people have deleted the app post wave 1. Tim Spector is also very “anti lockdown” and is using the data to push his agenda. In November he was against the lockdown and post the November lockdown he was pushing for a further relaxation of restrictions and everyone to move down to the lowest tier (tier 1). Arguably it is the relaxation of restrictions in December which has got us in this position in the first place therefore I no longer trust his app or his data. He has also been saying sceptical things about how he doesn’t believe the new variant has higher transmission and that we should not be in a national lockdown etc.

There is very rarely a perfect data source... You can't just ignore the data source because it doesn't fit your view of the world. 

Speaking of imperfect data sources I will have some more numbers for you later on today around access to greenspace following the the numbers I shared yesterday around access to supermarkets. 

 

 

 

Edited January 10, 2021 by RobertProsineckisLighter

[Ozanne]

15 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

No it isn’t. 

Yes it is. As per the below, schools went back on the 4th data below is from the 2nd.