When will this shit end?

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, MrBarry465 said:

Is that not one of the most obvious statments one can possibly make about the vaccine?

Not to be dismissive just seems like an odd tweet lol.

 

Not really, if we're taking him literally that he's worked out the order of magnitude, then you'd have to look at the case/hospitalisation rate, look at the number of people who have been vaccinated (post 10 days) at various points since the programme began. Then look at the demographic breakdown of those people before you get an estimate, which tells you it's in the 1000-9999 range.

Or he just guessed and said "thousands"! 

But even so, it's worth pointing out. I do hope that someone is modelling this properly and I'd be very interested to see those numbers if they are.

 

[zahidf]

5 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Thanks. Based on this, if they work 6 days a week we can estimate approx 1.5 million a week in future weeks once mass centres are open- maybe some weeks they will hit 2 million. I reckon they will be a couple of million shy of their target come mid feb but will bluff it and say that everyone has been “offered” or something like that.

Hancock says it will only count as meeting the target if they've accepted an appointment before the target date.

If its a couple of million under id probably still say that would be an achievement overall.

[ShakeyCrash]

6 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Low blow... we did win the Super Bowl without one though 😂

True, I’m a Falcons fan so prefer to forget that superbowls exist to be honest 

[steviewevie]

34 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Oh yeah I totally understand that lockdown is totally shit. I just mean that if you’re going to have a lockdown then January might be the best time for it. 

not a great time to increase hospitalisations though.

[zahidf]

 

[Ozanne]

The best time for lockdown was last month when cases were rising from a fairly lower level and were still manageable. The best time for a lockdown isn’t when it suits people better. 

[steviewevie]

Just now, Ozanne said:

The best time for lockdown was last month when cases were rising from a fairly lower level and were still manageable. The best time for a lockdown isn’t when it suits people better. 

They should have just kept the November lockdown going for longer...although that may not have been strict enough with new variant.

[zahidf]

30 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Just because a fair few will have lockdown fatigue doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t be following the rules. All data points to high compliance as per the ONS and polling; it’s whether the current rule set is enough.

 

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

They should have just kept the November lockdown going for longer...although that may not have been strict enough with new variant.

Then instead of end lockdown it should’ve been tightened. But my point is that just because January is quieter month for some that doesn’t mean it’s the best month for one. 
 

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

Is that all the evidence you could find in 12 hours? It doesn’t really prove that people aren’t following the rules, it proves that some aren’t. The majority still appear to be doing so according to the ONS and polling data. 

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

weren't the same conversations happening last spring...people driving places to walk their dogs etc?

[Ozanne]

I too can find a tweet that supports my point:

 

[FestivalJamie]

8 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

Hmmm I doubt they will end support bubbles.. can’t see that happening there would be uproar. One hour exercise no one will stick to. Curfew is possible I could see an 8pm curfew or the like but doubt it would be enforced. Closing nurseries yep that could happen. Masks outside... depends if just in high streets where it could be enforced by police otherwise it could only merely be a recommendation otherwise people aren’t gonna follow that one either.

[steviewevie]

Anyway, whether people are complying or not, it's whether current restrictions are enough to get R below 1 with new variant which pushes R up even further.

[Ryan1984]

1 hour ago, fraybentos1 said:

If we really are at 200k a day as Hancock says then that is very good going imo. It’s also suggests still capability to significantly increase that which is exciting.

I guess we will know more tomorrow when daily stats come out.

And this is before those national hubs open up? How many could go through Lords cricket ground or Epsom racecourse a day? Must be thousands?

[zahidf]

Postcode lottery 

 

[fatyeti24]

I can only offer anecdotal evidence, but I live in one of the UK's most visited tourist towns and while the area isn't completely deserted, you also couldn't argue that there's more numbers than just the locals out walking their dogs. 

It's quiet up here!

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

Anyway, whether people are complying or not, it's whether current restrictions are enough to get R below 1 with new variant which pushes R up even further.

That’s it I think and most scientists think the current restrictions aren’t enough up against this new variant. 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

8 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

The best time for lockdown was last month when cases were rising from a fairly lower level and were still manageable. The best time for a lockdown isn’t when it suits people better. 

We created a perfect storm for the new variant, London and the SE in T2 just as a new variant starts to build up pace. The case numbers there never fell as low as the rest of the country. This decision could prove to be the catalyst for this rise. 

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Postcode lottery 

 

I guess London hospitals are suffering the most at the moment?

[Copperface]

2 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

And this is before those national hubs open up? How many could go through Lords cricket ground or Epsom racecourse a day? Must be thousands?

Reported as:

About 2880 per day at the mass vac centres based on aiming for four per minute , 12 hours per day, seven days per week. 

Seven mass vac centres = weekly total of 142,000.

[Fuzzy Afro]

By far the biggest thing they could do to get the R down would be to close all non essential workplaces. All of those things that Hancock mentions would be pure virtue signalling and make little to no impact to the R number. 

[FestivalJamie]

6 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Postcode lottery 

 

There’s a bit of chaos going on in general. Some trusts aren’t receiving any doses whereas others are receiving double. Chiswick and Hammersmith have been receiving deliveries too large which is causing chaos and they are just booking random people in to try and use up the vaccines. I know 2 people under 70 who got the vaccine the other day on a random selection basis because the Nhs trust in Chiswick received too many doses in its order.

[Fuzzy Afro]

20 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

Curfews, masks outside and exercise limits will make very little difference to the spread if any at all.

 

Nurseries should be binned tbf. If schools need shut then so do nurseries.

 

Bubbles I do think they raise the R rate. But maybe the mental health benefits of them are too critical. It’s a tough one. 

[Ozanne]

5 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

We created a perfect storm for the new variant, London and the SE in T2 just as a new variant starts to build up pace. The case numbers there never fell as low as the rest of the country. This decision could prove to be the catalyst for this rise. 

That’s a good point too, the decision to put those areas into tier 2 might also be crucial when we look back. From memory I think cases were still rising weren’t in London and Kent?

I think they should’ve extended lockdown by 2 weeks in December, then put most areas into tier 3 and cancelled the Christmas relaxation (whilst also increasing financial support).

[stuartbert two hats]

11 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Then instead of end lockdown it should’ve been tightened. But my point is that just because January is quieter month for some that doesn’t mean it’s the best month for one. 
 

Is that all the evidence you could find in 12 hours? It doesn’t really prove that people aren’t following the rules, it proves that some aren’t. The majority still appear to be doing so according to the ONS and polling data. 

If we're going to relitigate the past, what they really should have done is have the half term firebreak and moved regions up the tiers more aggressively, combined with a unambiguous financial support.

Anyway, the main point is that there is more social activity in this lockdown than the last one, which seems fairly uncontroversial. So there may be a need to increase restrictions further. The compliance argument is pretty much besides the point.

The good thing is, I'm still convinced the Zoe app will prove to be an accurate predicator of the future and the current measures are enough to bring R<1. But only just.