When will this shit end?

[JoeyT]

What volume of cases are we going to peak at do we all think?

The million dollar questions I know but...

 

[El Matador]

12 minutes ago, jannybruck said:

Nah, this won't happen, so there's no point spending energy preparing yourself for it. There'll be a spike but all the noises show they've clearly commited to the 19th now and then will see what happens.

I agree that they'll proceed with the 19th. However I don't think they'll wait til September before the flip flopping starts. 

Netherlands have already set the precedent. 

[fraybentos1]

15 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Considering this lot don't care what they said even a couple of days ago or think people will forget, I still wouldn't be surprised if "if not now, when" turns into another "heavy heart" on Friday if we get the expected euros final spike in cases today/tomorrow/friday

Do you have to give this constant negativity all the time? It's exhausting. Are you not off to Latitude soon? Can you not look forward to that instead of coming on here to say either that restrictions won't be eased or that we will be back in lockdown for Autumn?

[efcfanwirral]

2 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Do you have to give this constant negativity all the time? It's exhausting. Are you not off to Latitude soon? Can you not look forward to that instead of coming on here to say either that restrictions won't be eased or that we will be back in lockdown for Autumn?

Haha I can do both of those things- live in the real world and still look forward to doing one thing. To me it's not negativity, it's just reality

[MrBarry465]

24 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Considering this lot don't care what they said even a couple of days ago or think people will forget, I still wouldn't be surprised if "if not now, when" turns into another "heavy heart" on Friday if we get the expected euros final spike in cases today/tomorrow/friday

No they won't back out of this now.

The only possibility I see is that they open the flood gates over summer and if it gets really out of hand - we have to lockdown in some degree in late September / October.

[fraybentos1]

3 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Haha I can do both of those things- live in the real world and still look forward to doing one thing. To me it's not negativity, it's just reality

It's reality to say that restriction easing won't go ahead as planned later in the month?  No it isn't, it is unbelievably and unnecessarily negative 

[Toilet Duck]

1 hour ago, Hannibal Schmitt said:

I`m sure there is. Here it makes 70-80 percent of all cases now and this with not so much sequencing.

We already have clusters of dutch tourists with delta brought into the country.

Also I assume that the delta in Europe has been faster than expected, so many experts say it here.

Rather handily, we can identify delta without sequencing. When Alpha hit, one of the mutations caused the S gene to drop out of the PCR results (which typically look at 2 or 3 genes). So, PCR data could be used as a proxy for estimating the prevalence of alpha (we could just assume that cases that were positive but had no signal in the S gene lane were alpha, and when they were sequenced, 95%+ of them were). Now we have delta which doesn't have the mutation that causes the S gene amplification to fail, so if we get a PCR result with no S gene signal, it's likely to be alpha and if we get a result that has a signal for the S gene, it's likely to be delta (older variants can't compete with either of these, so while the odd case will pop up, S gene+ on PCR is probably delta, S gene- is probably alpha). So what we are seeing across Europe is increasing amount of positive cases that have this S gene signal, indicating a big rise in the ratio of delta cases (around 80% here now too)...

[zahidf]

4 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Haha I can do both of those things- live in the real world and still look forward to doing one thing. To me it's not negativity, it's just reality

Its not so much that, its just that every single development comes with 'BACK TO LOCKDOWN UNTIL SPRING' Its not living in the real world to be SO gloomy over things.

[Matt42]

1 hour ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

I have recent and current first hand experience of how the vaccines seem to be working...to an extent. It's definitely not preventing catching it but it definitely softens the blow if and when you do. There's an air of inevitability that at some point we'll all catch it and those who have been vaccinated stand a better chance of lessening the impact. So I don't deny that they work but I would dispel any myths that they protect you from catching the virus. But has this been the message all along? I genuinely can't remember!

No the message now is to doubt the efficacy of a double jabbed individual. A few months ago the people who were pushing for the vaccination would have burnt you at the stake. Now it’s the fashionable view of following the science to say the vaccines do jack shit. Keep up.

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

Just now, Matt42 said:

No the message now is to doubt the efficacy of a double jabbed individual. A few months ago the people who were pushing for the vaccination would have burnt you at the stake. Now it’s the fashionable view of following the science to say the vaccines do jack shit. Keep up.

I don't need to keep up when I know you have your finger on the pulse

[Matt42]

1 hour ago, Toilet Duck said:

Jaysus Matt you do come out with some corkers! 😁 understanding how vaccines work is not denialism (assuming they are a force field is incorrect though). My point all along is that they have good effectiveness at stopping infections when we have other measures in place that also reduce our chances of getting infected. Cram us all into gigs or clubs again and the odds of picking it up increase, even when double jabbed. The key thing here is that (as per the navy boat in question), infections that otherwise might have had serious consequences, instead lead to mild or asymptomatic cases (they won’t always, some people will still get sick, end up in hospital and even die, but not in numbers anywhere close to what would happen if unvaccinated). Far from denialism, the vaccines work incredibly well and I still think that they end this, just with greater coverage than we currently have.

 

1 hour ago, Radiochicken said:

Didn’t mean it to come across that way 😂

Vaccines FTW! 

But you need to be careful because this constant doubting of the vaccine efficacy is not going to have the effect you think it is. People on the fence will just simply not get it, and things will get worse.  Think more widely about the talking points you’re pushing.

[efcfanwirral]

 

17 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

It's reality to say that restriction easing won't go ahead as planned later in the month?  No it isn't, it is unbelievably and unnecessarily negative 

OK yes I was wrong - restrictions are being lifted next week, I'm sooo excited....

16 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Its not so much that, its just that every single development comes with 'BACK TO LOCKDOWN UNTIL SPRING' Its not living in the real world to be SO gloomy over things.

You see it as gloomy and fair enough. I can tone it down for the benefit of others! 

[steviewevie]

30 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

What volume of cases are we going to peak at do we all think?

The million dollar questions I know but...

 

63258

[steviewevie]

20 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

No the message now is to doubt the efficacy of a double jabbed individual. A few months ago the people who were pushing for the vaccination would have burnt you at the stake. Now it’s the fashionable view of following the science to say the vaccines do jack shit. Keep up.

No it isn't. 

Most hospitalisations are people who are unvaccinated (or not fully vaccinated). The worry is there are still too many of them.

[DeanoL]

18 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

But you need to be careful because this constant doubting of the vaccine efficacy is not going to have the effect you think it is. People on the fence will just simply not get it, and things will get worse.  Think more widely about the talking points you’re pushing.

Nah. I don't think that's good enough. The idea we shouldn't be able to discuss vaccine efficacy in any negative light because it'll put off more anti-vaxxers? No, I think being able to have the conversation is more important than trying to convince the remaining lot to get it to protect themselves. That's their choice. 

[Toilet Duck]

22 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

 

But you need to be careful because this constant doubting of the vaccine efficacy is not going to have the effect you think it is. People on the fence will just simply not get it, and things will get worse.  Think more widely about the talking points you’re pushing.

I'm not pushing anything Matt. I just don't think you understand how vaccines work. I've literally said umpteen times that they will end this and work excellently at preventing the worst outcomes, I don't know how much clearer I can be, but there's no agenda and no attempt to shift any narrative. It's no different to anything I said over a year ago before we even had approved vaccines to use (and no different to what most scientists would have said). You are looking for something here where there isn't anything. Without the vaccines, the current infection rate would already have a 10 fold amount of people in hospital and many more dying. They have pushed the CFR here down towards something we live with every year (it'd be lovely if they eliminated it entirely, but that's not realistic unfortunately), there's no anti-vax nonsense in this, there's no vaccine denialism, just a basic understanding of how they work. The data repeatedly shows that they are exceptionally effective at preventing the things we want them to prevent. If understanding how things work stops people on the fence from taking a safe and efficacious vaccine, then I'm not sure what to say. Better to lie to them and dupe them into getting it? Of course not. There is still sensationalism in some of the reporting (and politicians declaring things over when they clearly aren't yet doesn't help either), but accurately describing the effectiveness of the vaccines is not part of any misinformation campaign. 

Edited July 14, 2021 by Toilet Duck
stoopid autocorrect!

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

OK yes I was wrong - restrictions are being lifted next week, I'm sooo excited....

You see it as gloomy and fair enough. I can tone it down for the benefit of others! 

All opinions allowed.

[steviewevie]

Just now, steviewevie said:

All opinions allowed.

except fishy ones.

[RossTC]

48 minutes ago, Havors said:

Whats the old wives tale ?  Is it feed a cold, starve a fever?  

I think its all bollocks anyway ha! Get well soon

Yeah agreed, i'm filling my face as much as i can manage!

 

Cheers.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I'm not pushing anything Matt. I just don't think you understand how vaccines work. I've literally said umpteen times that they will end this and work excellently at preventing the worst outcomes, I don't know how much clearer I can be, but there's no agenda and no attempt to shift any narrative. It's no different to anything I said over a year ago before we even had approved vaccines to use (and no different to what most scientists would have said). You are looking for something here where there isn't anything. Without the vaccines, the current infection rate would already have a 10 fold amount of people in hospital and many more dying. They have pushed the CFR here down towards something we live with every year (it'd be lovely if they eliminated it entirely, but that's not realistic unfortunately), there's no anti-vax nonsense in this, there's no vaccine denialism, just a basic understanding of how they work. The data repeatedly shows that they are exceptionally effective at preventing the things we want them to prevent. If understanding how things work stops people on the fence from taking a safe and efficacious vaccine, then I'm not sure what to say. Better to lie to them and dupe them into getting it? Of course not. There is still sensationalism in some of the reporting (and politicians declaring things over when they clearly aren't yet doesn't help either), but accurately describing the effectiveness of the vaccines is not part of any misinformation campaign. 

are there any vaccines that are 100% effective? I'm guessing not.

[Toilet Duck]

Just now, steviewevie said:

are there any vaccines that are 100% effective? I'm guessing not.

The measles ones is pretty good. But measles doesn't have the same range of animal reservoirs for it to hide in until the immunity wanes (it doesn't for a very long time). The polio one is also good enough to eradicate the disease and we really should have by now. The smallpox one worked a treat! 

[Radiochicken]

12 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

 

But you need to be careful because this constant doubting of the vaccine efficacy is not going to have the effect you think it is. People on the fence will just simply not get it, and things will get worse.  Think more widely about the talking points you’re pushing.

Completely disagree with you, very strongly. Your reply has actually annoyed me.

If I can’t ask about the vaccines effects on transmission, and whether we should change our assumptions or not based on new “data” (I use the term very very loosely here), then what’s the point of a thread titled “when will this shit end?”

Whatever 2+2=5 assumptions you’ve made on why I asked that question, you can keep them in your own head.

I even addressed my question to the expert on the thread, who as always gave a very clear, helpful answer. I value his input, and even if he’s reiterating points raised previously, the repetition helps me (and I assume others) learn. Very science, ay. 

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

The measles ones is pretty good. But measles doesn't have the same range of animal reservoirs for it to hide in until the immunity wanes (it doesn't for a very long time). The polio one is also good enough to eradicate the disease and we really should have by now. The smallpox one worked a treat! 

ok...this is where I get effectiveness and efficacy mixed up. Would these vaccines have had 100% efficacy? Or would they have been high enough to be able to get these illnesses to very low levels or even eradicate them (i.e. 100% effective)?

[DeanoL]

7 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

But the vaccine was sold as a passport to freedom and our lives back.  Monday looks shit.

What do you mean by that? Do you think it's not going to happen?

[philipsteak]

2 hours ago, MrBarry465 said:

Cancellations for? 

The youth hostel I work at in the Lake District