When will this shit end?

[incident]

Just now, phimill said:

I haven't heard if the data has been passed to the MHRA yet - I guess they will announce this at the briefing?

Apparently they've been reviewing it on a rolling basis for the past few months - so it's more a case of when it gets signed off as final.

[DeanoL]

45 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I get what you mean, but I think those sorts of feelings will ease off quite quickly on the other side of the vaccine.

If you think back to the end of the first lockdown the first few weeks were relatively quiet, but after people had ventured out a few times they felt much more relaxed about it.

Lots of people did. Lots of people didn’t get as far as “venturing out a few times”.

I think it’s too early to say about reopening things until we get a better feel  ofor the impact on transmission of the vaccine. If it doesn’t help that much and it’s still massively prevalent in the community by June, I’m not sure I would want to to go to Glastonbury. So little hygiene, so many close contacts. Sure, I have a vaccine that drops my infection chance by 90%, but that 10% of getting possibly very seriously ill could still feel quite high if in a scenario where the base chance of catching it is high anyway.

Now rolling out the vaccine while under lockdown, thus keeping it under control and that base rate low, that might give me the confidence that things will be back to normal as soon as all adults are vaccinated. But we won’t, and probably shouldn’t- those with the appetite for the risk can go keep the economy open and working. But it means those of us more risk averse will probably wait a little while,longer.

[Punksnotdead]

1 hour ago, FestivalJamie said:

Where I’m lying caution with Glasto/Sziget/Rock Werchter etc is they are all surely huge international festivals which rely on international artists and international audiences. 

Just because the UK might finish its vaccination plan first, does that mean glasto would be financially plausible to go ahead if lots of international bands and audience weren’t able to come? Similarly, the NHS could mess up the vaccination plan and the whole thing could get delayed meaning glasto wasn’t feasible and a different international festival might be able to run.

My concern with Glastonbury is how big the scale of the event is, how many people attend and how international the event is. I’m thinking surely we will ease back into things rather than rushing so I wonder whether they would consider to downscale it at all.

The likes of Sziget too, it’s in Hungary, perhaps a slightly less wealthy nation than the likes of the UK. They are the first EU nation to order Russia’s vaccine, which I lie sceptical about. Something could easily go wrong over there preventing Sziget to take place.

So I still lie caution with 2021 festivals. For the sake of everyone on here, I hope glasto can find a way to go ahead, but I don’t think I’ll be quite ready to attend in 2021 myself.

Also the leaked nhs plan of everyone vaccinated by Easter I find unrealistic. 1 million per week seems feasible but still optimistic to me and with everyone requiring 2 doses it may take longer than expected. A timeline for April/May starting to ease restrictions but much looser in the summer feels more plausible to me. Nevertheless, an end to misery is in sight which is probably good for me, as I have been struggling the last couple of days and especially I’ve been worrying about this new tier system and Christmas rules which I fear are a massive mistake so close to the end.

I had my first flu vaccine a couple of weeks ago & it was a sight to behold the efficiency they did it. I reckon I was in and out in less than 2 minutes. As long as there's no problem with supplies, they'll vaccinate WAY more than one million per week!

[zahidf]

The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency says it has already started looking at data on the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and that it hopes to decide whether or not to approve it “in the shortest time possible”. In a statement Dr June Raine, the MHRA’s chief executive, said:

We are pleased to have received further data for the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine candidate.

It is our job now to rigorously assess these data and the evidence submitted on the vaccine’s safety, quality and effectiveness.

As we have received this data through a rolling review, we have already started our analysis and will aim to make a decision in the shortest time.

[Fuzzy Afro]

I just realised that 100m doses at 1.5 doses per person is pretty much enough to vaccinate every person in the UK.

 

[incident]

1 minute ago, Punksnotdead said:

I had my first flu vaccine a couple of weeks ago & it was a sight to behold the efficiency they did it. I reckon I was in and out in less than 2 minutes. As long as there's no problem with supplies, they'll vaccinate WAY more than one million per week!

Indeed - the current (relatively low profile / low resource) flu vaccine programme you experienced is currently doing more than one million a week and people hardly notice.

[steviewevie]

You think Bojo will actually ask people to not travel to visit other households over christmas if they possibly can avoid it...light at end of tunnel but let's not fuck this winter up...?

[Euphoricape]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

You think Bojo will actually ask people to not travel to visit other households over christmas if they possibly can avoid it...light at end of tunnel but let's not fuck this winter up...?

I'm really hoping so, travelling between tiers is madness. Any word on hotels being allowed to open? Cos if they are then travelling out of your local area is being encouraged..

[eFestivals]

10 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I just realised that 100m doses at 1.5 doses per person is pretty much enough to vaccinate every person in the UK.

 

it's more than enough as they're not doing under-18s (yet).

[FestivalJamie]

13 minutes ago, Punksnotdead said:

I had my first flu vaccine a couple of weeks ago & it was a sight to behold the efficiency they did it. I reckon I was in and out in less than 2 minutes. As long as there's no problem with supplies, they'll vaccinate WAY more than one million per week!

Nice to see your optimism. I still remain cautious in my view!

[Copperface]

57 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Spain says they'll have everyone vaccinated by Spring as well

 

But i dont think countries are going to wait to vaccinate evryone before reopening the economy anyway

From what I can see, Spain say that they will have one quarter of the population vaccinated by Spring.

"Spain plans to have a quarter of its population vaccinated within the first three months of 2021"

"Spain will begin a comprehensive vaccination programme in January and expects to have covered a substantial part of the population within three months, the prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, said on Sunday."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/23/us-germany-and-uk-could-start-covid-vaccinations-as-early-as-december

This is more realistic:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54371559

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

19 minutes ago, Homer said:

Also, I reckon some people were secretly going to the pub and sitting with people they weren't really allowed to go with.

Same with coffee shops, restaurants, shops, garden centres, houses, sitting next to folk on the bus etc.. etc.. etc..

[zahidf]

• Mene Pangalos, executive vice president for biopharmaceuticals R&D at AstraZeneca, said the subgroup analysis - which showed 90% efficacy for a particular dose regimen - was enough to file for regulatory approval.

• Pangalos said data from the vaccine trial was already being submitted to the UK’s Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) for consideration.

[philipsteak]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

If you think back to the end of the first lockdown the first few weeks were relatively quiet, but after people had ventured out a few times they felt much more relaxed about it.

 

 

In cities maybe, but that's because everyone in the cities came to the Lake District (and similar places). it started to get busy before the end of lockdown, and the first few weeks (and then months) after were as busy as I've seen it in the 10 or so years I've been here.  Busier even. Staff who live a few miles away were taking twice as long as usual even for summer to get in to work. It took a lot of effort to get some people to stick to the rules and systems we'd brought in

[zahidf]

6 minutes ago, Copperface said:

 

This is more realistic:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54371559

I dont see that flying politicially. 

[Copperface]

4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

I dont see that flying politicially. 

They won't have a choice. Where did that idea re Spain being done by Easter come from? 

Even the Vaccines Alliance are urging caution.

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/back-normal-spring-are-we-expecting-too-much-first-covid-19-vaccines

Edited November 23, 2020 by Copperface

[philipsteak]

13 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

I'm really hoping so, travelling between tiers is madness. Any word on hotels being allowed to open? Cos if they are then travelling out of your local area is being encouraged..

Not heard anything yet, this is the bit I'm interested in. 

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

I dont see that flying politicially. 

Agreed. It's also two months old.  We've learned a lot about vaccine efficacy and the level of ambition in the vaccine rollout.

The other point that's not being raised is that once you've vaccinated all the over 65s, the case->hospitalisation->death ratios change significantly.

[phimill]

I was also thinking the other day - do we expect the government to update the covid data with daily vaccination data? This should give some clear understanding on the delivery and they could relate relaxing of the rules to % vaccinated? 

[Euphoricape]

5 minutes ago, philipsteak said:

Not heard anything yet, this is the bit I'm interested in. 

Hopefully we should find out later today. Bojo speech at 3.30pm.

[efcfanwirral]

4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Agreed. It's also two months old.  We've learned a lot about vaccine efficacy and the level of ambition in the vaccine rollout.

The other point that's not being raised is that once you've vaccinated all the over 65s, the case->hospitalisation->death ratios change significantly.

It's interesting that the conversation seems to have moved on from this - we're now more talking about getting everyone vaccinated. I'm not surprised, I still think we'll need to show proof of vaccination to do anything beyond going into a supermarket but I guess it needs to be backed by the population to push it through, and really needs a rollout before reopening too much

[Copperface]

2 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

It's interesting that the conversation seems to have moved on from this - we're now more talking about getting everyone vaccinated. I'm not surprised, I still think we'll need to show proof of vaccination to do anything beyond going into a supermarket but I guess it needs to be backed by the population to push it through, and really needs a rollout before reopening too much

Even Professor Sahin agrees (and that is only nine days old although the points in the original BBC article are still valid and not really affected by being 7 weeks old)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54949799

[Waterdeep]

41 minutes ago, Punksnotdead said:

I had my first flu vaccine a couple of weeks ago & it was a sight to behold the efficiency they did it. I reckon I was in and out in less than 2 minutes. As long as there's no problem with supplies, they'll vaccinate WAY more than one million per week!

Do you have to wait around for a bit after the flu vaccine? I think I read somewhere that the coronavirus one requires you to stay for a short amount of time afterwards (15-20 mins?) so you can be monitored for immediate adverse reactions. That might slow things down a bit if it's different from the flu setup already in place.

[xxialac]

7 minutes ago, Waterdeep said:

Do you have to wait around for a bit after the flu vaccine? I think I read somewhere that the coronavirus one requires you to stay for a short amount of time afterwards (15-20 mins?) so you can be monitored for immediate adverse reactions. That might slow things down a bit if it's different from the flu setup already in place.

Yes, I heard the same.

15 minutes per patient, not 2 minutes.

[Fuzzy Afro]

10 minutes ago, Waterdeep said:

Do you have to wait around for a bit after the flu vaccine? I think I read somewhere that the coronavirus one requires you to stay for a short amount of time afterwards (15-20 mins?) so you can be monitored for immediate adverse reactions. That might slow things down a bit if it's different from the flu setup already in place.

Surely they still vaccinate every 2 mins though, you just sit in the waiting room for a bit once you’re done to make sure you’re grand