Weather 2016

[FestiZebra]

2 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

The ground here is drying very fast now the sun is out and it has turned very warm.

Just seen the latest BBC update and the Thunder storms were "very isolated and confined to the far south coast and south east if at all"

Keep the faith.

This is the sky from my office right now, been like this for only 30 minutes and the ground is already dry. I still have faith!!

[Larraht]

3 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

The ground here is drying very fast now the sun is out and it has turned very warm.

Just seen the latest BBC update and the Thunder storms were "very isolated and confined to the far south coast and south east if at all"

Keep the faith.

I BELIEVE. 

[Henrik]

So that should be more or less it for the rain now. Nothing more than the chance of an odd shower for the rest of the week. Can the site dry out before we all arrive on Wednesday? I'm thinking we will be fine.

Just imagine if the festival had been one week earlier. Jeeeeeeezuz!!

We have been so lucky.

 

[CaledonianGonzo]

Two days of that before the gates open and nothing else heavy hitting the site and we're in good shape.

If another deluge happens - either between now and then or once people are on site -  then the slog factor goes exponentially upwards.

It's still all to play for.

 

[dingbat2]

2 minutes ago, FestiZebra said:

This is the sky from my office right now, been like this for only 30 minutes and the ground is already dry. I still have faith!!

Fuck the weather, there's an alien mothership hovering over your office, get out now

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

I've been relentlessly positive but Met Office switching to heavy showers on Sat and potential Thunderstorms Thursday is a right pisser.

 

Met Office have had a good record with short terms forecasts over last few festivals.

[basquille]

Just now, dingbat2 said:

Fuck the weather, there's an alien mothership hovering over your office, get out now

[CaledonianGonzo]

1 minute ago, Henrik said:

We have been so lucky.

As it stands, yup.  We've won a watch.

Still an opportunity for it to go south on us, but if this morning's weather was a week later and there were 100,000 people trying to exit the site then it wouldn't have been pretty.

[cornish hick]

23 minutes ago, waterfalls212434 said:

report from down here in cornwall......sunshine and warmth...hopefully on its way up somerset way

what part of Cornwall ? the mist and low cloud has come down again - can't see Carn Brea from Camborne!

[CaledonianGonzo]

How does the BBC Weather / Met Office app work?

I presume it's automated, so misses the extra layer of interpretation and analysis that goes into the broadcast forecasts....?

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

2 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

As it stands, yup.  We've won a watch.

Still an opportunity for it to go south on us, but if this morning's weather was a week later and there were 100,000 people trying to exit the site then it wouldn't have been pretty.

I must admit, I keep thinking that the silver lining is it could have been this weekend. That would have been 97/98 levels of horror. 

[frostypaw]

1 minute ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

I must admit, I keep thinking that the silver lining is it could have been this weekend. That would have been 97/98 levels of horror. 

This!

Just as with every grim year it being glorious the whole week after let's hope we're doing the reverse job here.

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, CaledonianGonzo said:

How does the BBC Weather / Met Office app work?

I presume it's automated, so misses the extra layer of interpretation and analysis that goes into the broadcast forecasts....?

Yeh, the forecasts are completely automated and change based on whatever the model thinks if happening on the day. The text forecasts are better as they actually have human input! 

[st dan]

Can we all be in agreement that we'll never complain about the 2010 heatwave ever again please? 

[CaledonianGonzo]

1 minute ago, Thunderstruck said:

Yeh, the forecasts are completely automated and change based on whatever the model thinks if happening on the day. The text forecasts are better as they actually have human input! 

I thought as much - and the broadcast forecasts have largely placed Thursday's possible thunder storms away from the site.

And that's my cue to boogaloo.

[DeanoL]

The actual forecast for the festival is terrific and any other year we'd be celebrating. Essentially dry with, not overly hot, maybe a couple of showers on Thursday/Saturday. That's essentially last year's weather but a bit cooler.

It's just the paranoia about the flooding over the past couple of weeks that's meaning we won't settle for anything less than no rain whatsoever. Which is understandable, but remember we basically had a heatwave for a week or so, which would have dried the ground right out. Then you get a big storm and you get a lot of standing water as a result, as it's harder for it to soak into the ground. It should be loosened up now, it might be saturated, but there's a good chance it isn't. Remember this is ground that has to deal with weeks of persistent rain in winter months.

I think any rain we get during the festival is going to make the ground a little muddy as it always does, but I also expect it to soak in quite quickly - quicker than in the past years when we've had a really hot few weeks before the festival. Some areas where the ground doesn't drain well are always going to be an issue but I'm vaguely optimistic in general...

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, DeanoL said:

The actual forecast for the festival is terrific and any other year we'd be celebrating. Essentially dry with, not overly hot, maybe a couple of showers on Thursday/Saturday. That's essentially last year's weather but a bit cooler.

It's just the paranoia about the flooding over the past couple of weeks that's meaning we won't settle for anything less than no rain whatsoever. Which is understandable, but remember we basically had a heatwave for a week or so, which would have dried the ground right out. Then you get a big storm and you get a lot of standing water as a result, as it's harder for it to soak into the ground. It should be loosened up now, it might be saturated, but there's a good chance it isn't. Remember this is ground that has to deal with weeks of persistent rain in winter months.

I think any rain we get during the festival is going to make the ground a little muddy as it always does, but I also expect it to soak in quite quickly - quicker than in the past years when we've had a really hot few weeks before the festival. Some areas where the ground doesn't drain well are always going to be an issue but I'm vaguely optimistic in general...

Yeh, this time of year the sun is so strong it strips the water off the ground pretty damn quick! If we don't have any more significant rain now then the site will be well on the way to drying out on Wednesday...

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

3 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

Yeh, this time of year the sun is so strong it strips the water off the ground pretty damn quick! If we don't have any more significant rain now then the site will be well on the way to drying out on Wednesday...

But compared to yesterday there's a lot more cloud cover forecast and also potential for heavy showers at the weekend.

I agree it'll be muddy Wednesday, drying out Thursday, probably great on Friday (at least compacted) but any heavy rain Saturday, even a shower, will result in everything going south. Bit like 2004.

But agree that is it had been dry this week, we'd take that forecast in a heartbeat.

[offmytrolley]

This thread can be such a buzzkill, or such a source of elation. I really shouldn't follow it, but every year I just can't help it…

[Wallace]

Liam Dutton posted this an hour ago..

 

[DeanoL]

2 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

But compared to yesterday there's a lot more cloud cover forecast and also potential for heavy showers at the weekend.

I agree it'll be muddy Wednesday, drying out Thursday, probably great on Friday (at least compacted) but any heavy rain Saturday, even a shower, will result in everything going south. Bit like 2004.

I'm less sure that's true. It'll depend how the new drainage is holding up, and I dare say some areas where the ground is less pourus and there's less drainage will suffer. 2004 was before all the current drainage changes.

The flooding issues the past week have been caused by volume in a short space of time, and the ground being baked solid. One could assume the ground is now saturated, and anything more will just sit on top and cause mud. But a week of heavy rain shouldn't really do that. It'll get far worse over winter without flooding. The alternative is the ground is now primed to handle any showers.

Yes, if we get another storm then that'll be a problem...

[Thunderstruck]

I remember 2014 and the massive downpours on Friday - by sunday everything was drying up nicely.

[fat_man_joe]

it's pissing it down here in London. But I'm willing to take the bullet now if it means it doesn't rain in the South West.

Yes, that is how science works.

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, Nobody Interesting said:

So Little Liam has a different forecast to every one else then.

No, That's a pretty reasonable forecast based on the current outlook. 

Edited June 20, 2016 by Thunderstruck

[Zoo Music Girl]

3 hours ago, Scruffylovemonster said:

Who ya trying to convince here???? :-)

You guys, obviously... good luck all! I'll be in Spain for a long weekend 

But I wouldn't wish you any ill; I've got three little festivals of my own later in the summer and I don't want the bad karma.