Weather 2016

[Fred Zepplin]

Every year I tell myself there is no point looking on here until a week before as the predictions now are pretty much finger in the air guesses, but here I am and whenever a bad forecast is shown it gets me down a bit and the one at the top of the page puts a smile on my face. I think its because when I see the sun predictions images of laying on the ground with a cold one pop into my mind. The Nal will be along soon saying its predicting non stop rain and going to be a total washout, total rubbish but it will get me down for a few seconds but images of 07 appear, not good

[Twisted Melon]

On 12 May 2016 at 3:40 PM, stopwn1981 said:

Apologies if already asked/answered, but when is jackones first forecast due?

I was thinking the same thing. I'm sure his forecasts tend to begin mid May so could be anytime now

[pedmills]

On 5/4/2016 at 10:42 AM, JoeyT said:

I haven't seen @pedmills post in a while so I hope he'll be back with his predicted rainfall graphs

 

 

On 5/4/2016 at 10:57 AM, Jugtanion said:

Pedmills' graphs are an essential part of the build up

Yes I definitely will. But I'm probably going to be a bit busier with work this year so I might not be able to update them quite as frequently.

For those that don't know...for the last 3 years I've averaged out the predicted mm rainfall over the festival for all the online weather forecast sites.

It's based on a sort of 'wisdom of the crowds' idea - although individual sites vary and fluctuate a lot, averaging them out and updating frequently can show whether the forecasts are generally getting worse or better. Also by looking at the average and maximum values on the tuesday before you can roughly tell whether it's going to be closer to a 2007 or a 2010.

In 2013 the wettest forecast on the day before the festival was for 6mm of rain over the course of the festival, and the average was 2.6mm. The actual rainfall recorded at yeovilton was 4.1mm.

In 2014 we had wettest 42.6mm and average 19.5mm. Then actual 44mm.

In 2015 we had wettest 7.2mm, average 4mm. Then actual 4mm.

The moment when the 2014 forecasts started to differ from the 2013 and 2015 forecasts was about a week before the festival:

Those graphs cover the period from 13th - 23rd June 2015 (and equivalents for 2013 and 2014).

Also, the average of the forecasts on the tuesday got the day splits right last year too:

Edited May 15, 2016 by pedmills

[McCor]

Long range from Accuweather

[Guest]

32 minutes ago, McCor said:

Long range from Accuweather

When we just accept this one now? We don't really need any further offers as that is perfect.

[guypjfreak]

http://m.accuweather.com/en/gb/glastonbury/ba6-9/extended-weather-forecast/330614?page=2

[McCor]

3 minutes ago, eastynh said:

When we just accept this one now? We don't really need any further offers as that is perfect.

Yep. I will not accept anything else!

[Guest]

1 minute ago, McCor said:

Yep. I will not accept anything else!

Well seeing as you are so adamant, I am going to blow the overtime money I will earn tonight on a new pair of shades after I sat on mine in the car this afternoon.

[nban2010]

As we get closer and the warm summer continues to be delayed, here is hoping that the end of June monsoon is also delayed.

Pretty picture so far...

[devonhammer]

On 12/05/2016 at 3:40 PM, stopwn1981 said:

Apologies if already asked/answered, but when is jackones first forecast due?

Normally about a month out, so maybe next week.

There won't be much serious chat about weather until the start of June. The people who understand it (I have studied meteorology at university, but that was 25 years ago) will start to increase the posts from the start of June. Realistically though, you can't predict the weather with any certainty for more than three days, but it's fun to try.

[McCor]

I'm liking the 23 degrees with some cloud!

[The Nal]

On 5/12/2016 at 3:40 PM, stopwn1981 said:

Apologies if already asked/answered, but when is jackones first forecast due?

Hes having complications removing the clown mask he made from someone elses skin at the moment. And they've extended his stay in Broadmoor by a few weeks after they found those childrens heads in his fridge. 

[Thunderstruck]

The only thing with any possible skill at this range are the 3 month Met Office ensembles. They don't really tell us much, other than very slightly increased chances of a warmer and wetter May-July period.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/h/s/A3_plots-temp-MJJ_v1.pdf

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/g/0/A3_plots-precip-MJJ_v1.pdf

Realistically I'd say the first trends in the models will be about +14 days out. 

[Wooderson]

Jackone. A comedian.

[jonodillieono]

Having only been to 2 Glastonburys (2014, 2015) I'm just curious how muddy people would say 2014 was. I'm not too fussed about rain but I hate muddy slushy shit, having to wear wellies from mid Friday until I left wasn't the best for my feet.

Obviously it's not going to be anything compared to 2005/07 and the couple I hear about in the 90s but was 2014 a particularly muddy year for Glastonbury or was it about average? Last year was so much better weather wise. Obviously we can't see the future but is your average Glastonbury more similar to 2014 or 2015?

[jonodillieono]

Just now, Nobody Interesting said:

I thought 2015 was muddier than 2014 personally but both dried up pretty quick in most places. I wear walking books and gaiters, much more comfortable than wellies.

Really? I swear 2015 was only muddy on Friday daytime and by the evening I was back in normal shoes. in 2015 the dance village was a constant sludge fest all weekend (I camped in Bushy so had to walk through that everytime I was getting somewhere)

[mr jolly]

Considering the deluges we had Friday and Saturday in 2014 I remember the site holding up resonably well but we had a scorching June leading up to it and Sod's law it turned unsettled on our weekend. If you get good weather prior to the festival it does make a huge difference if/when it does rain because the ground recovers in no time,unlike 2011 when it was already saturated 

Edited May 16, 2016 by mr jolly

[Bubblecup]

2014 was wet! tractors putting down wood chip everywhere and boggy slushy mud in all the usual places.  2015 was fine, downpour on friday, ok on sat and back to normal on sunday

[rumpola]

2014 was pretty wet. Not 2005/7/11 wet but definitely above average whereas 2015 was perfectly fine apart from the Friday downpour.

Walking boots and shorts are definitely the best way to go whatever the weather.

[Guest]

44 minutes ago, rumpola said:

2014 was pretty wet. Not 2005/7/11 wet but definitely above average whereas 2015 was perfectly fine apart from the Friday downpour.

Walking boots and shorts are definitely the best way to go whatever the weather.

Apart from 2016 when it is flip flops which will be the order of the day.

[Peroni]

1 hour ago, mr jolly said:

Considering the deluges we had Friday and Saturday in 2014 I remember the site holding up resonably well but we had a scorching June leading up to it and Sod's law it turned unsettled on our weekend. If you get good weather prior to the festival it does make a huge difference if/when it does rain because the ground recovers in no time,unlike 2011 when it was already saturated 

I'd agree... And this was one of reasons why 2011 was grim...wet in the run up and churned up by the arriving hordes... If it's dry the week before we stand a good chance

[John the Moth]

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/667492/Summer-weather-forecast-UK-long-range-hottest-summer-sunshine

well that's that sorted then! 

 

 

Seriously though, how do these imbeciles think they can print these "90 days of snow/scorch/snow/scorch" stories on a 6 month rotation and folks won't think the editors are morons?

[Spindles]

Their main readership is pensioners.  A group of people both renowned for a fascination with the weather and not having the best memories.

We haven't had a wet winter or particularly wet spring and if this warm, generally dry pattern carries on for a couple of weeks that should keep the ground nice and sturdy for site setup to not be affected.  I'd take a week like we've just had quite happily thank you very much.

[4AssedMonkey]

2011 was wet.  2014 was mixed IMO, but still the 2nd worst of all the ones I've been to.  Last year and '09 were pretty similar with the odd cloudburst but no real, proper mud.  And we all remember 2010.  I love 2010.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that last year was probably slightly better than average, 2014 was slightly worse.

[Bradders]

14 minutes ago, 4AssedMonkey said:

2011 was wet.  2014 was mixed IMO, but still the 2nd worst of all the ones I've been to.  Last year and '09 were pretty similar with the odd cloudburst but no real, proper mud.  And we all remember 2010.  I love 2010.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that last year was probably slightly better than average, 2014 was slightly worse.

Having been the same years as you, I'd say this is exactly right.