When will this shit end?

[stuartbert two hats]

35 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

The effectiveness of Pfizer and possibly Moderna, after 4 weeks and against Delta is pretty limited. 

If you're privileged enough to have already have been offered both jabs and someone who isn't wants you to wear a mask that seems reasonable.

As you can tell, I generally agree with you, but I think you've got it wrong here. For young people, who are most of those on single doses, four weeks after the first jab gives profound protection on top of the natural immunity, particularly for the mRNA vaccines.

 

[Guest]

 

[Guest]

 

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

 

I guess we'll probably be over 50k/day by 19th July...?

[steviewevie]

 

[hodgey123]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

 

Not good week-on-week, but still massively lower than what the hospitalisation levels were in January the last time we had similar case numbers.

[Toilet Duck]

5 minutes ago, BobWillis2 said:

@Toilet Duck

Is this true? 
 

Specifically talking about protection against disease and not infection, does a single dose of pfizer become “pretty limited” after 4 weeks? 

Neutralising antibody titres drop off a fair bit after 4 weeks, but I haven't seen any data that specifically shows a big increase in severe disease, hospitalisation or death in the 4-12 week window between mRNA doses (compared with those that got dose 2 as per the manufacturer's recommendations). Yes, if you get infected, then your chances of developing disease obviously increase and those that are being admitted to hospital are mostly a mix of unvaccinated and partially vaccinated individuals (some are double jabbed, last time I looked it was about 10% of admissions, though that may have changed), but I haven't seen hard data showing an enrichment of mRNA single dose recipients in the admissions vs adenoviral single dose recipients (indeed, last time I looked, mRNA vaccine recipients had better protection after 1 dose). Granted, I'm not looking very hard for the data (so if someone has it, I'd be happy to have a look at it!). 2 doses is clearly better though, so getting as many people fully vaccinated as quickly as possible is not a bad thing (here we have just approved J&J single dose for 18-34 year olds by consent (and they are consenting in droves), which will finish the vaccination programme over a month early...now projected for August to reach all adults fully vaccinated). 

[JoeyT]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

I guess we'll probably be over 50k/day by 19th July...?

I think it could go either way. It's about 6k week on week increase at the moment but all being well growth slows between now and then so we could end up just below 50k.

[steviewevie]

Just now, JoeyT said:

I think it could go either way. It's about 6k week on week increase at the moment but all being well growth slows between now and then so we could end up just below 50k.

BET NOW!

[st dan]

I know there are many factors in play (the main one being how effective the vaccines are in reducing hospital admissions and deaths), but on the face of it, the logic to remove all restrictions right as we are seeing case numbers rocket is a puzzling one to get your head around isn’t it? If you’re applying logic and common sense. 

[Mr Boo]

9 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

BET NOW!

Those potential figures would be people getting ill, some unfortunately very ill. Personally not something I find funny or appropriate to joke about ☹️

Edited July 7, 2021 by Mr Boo

[FakeEmpire]

2 minutes ago, st dan said:

I know there are many factors in play (the main one being how effective the vaccines are in reducing hospital admissions and deaths), but on the face of it, the logic to remove all restrictions right as we are seeing case numbers rocket is a puzzling one to get your head around isn’t it? If you’re applying logic and common sense. 

I think we just want to bury our heads in the sand at this point. We know Johnon's fucked it again but also there cannot be many people who can cope with these restrictions for much longer. Just want my friends or family in one room again. 

[Havors]

11 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I guess we'll probably be over 50k/day by 19th July...?

Could do. I keep seeing data that suggests we peaked with cases by specimen date and that the curve is flattening like the following.... I guess we just have to hope we are about to peak if we have not already. 

 

 

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, st dan said:

I know there are many factors in play (the main one being how effective the vaccines are in reducing hospital admissions and deaths), but on the face of it, the logic to remove all restrictions right as we are seeing case numbers rocket is a puzzling one to get your head around isn’t it? If you’re applying logic and common sense. 

we're lab rats. It's a massive risky test of the efficacy of the vaccines...and will likely be the blueprint for Europe and elsewhere later in the year.

[Ryan1984]

2 minutes ago, FakeEmpire said:

I think we just want to bury our heads in the sand at this point. We know Johnon's fucked it again but also there cannot be many people who can cope with these restrictions for much longer. Just want my friends or family in one room again. 

Johnson wants his six-week holiday. By the times he’s back, the cases might have plateaued a little..?

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Havors said:

Could do. I keep seeing data that suggests we peaked with cases by specimen date and that the curve is flattening like the following.... I guess we just have to hope we are about to peak if we have not already. 

 

 

The govt must have seen models where keeps going up until early/mid August...hence the Javid 100k/day thing the other day...which was just preparing us for what may be on it's way...at the same time these models can be wrong of course and maybe we'll peak at about 50k/day...

[dingbat2]

[stuartbert two hats]

7 minutes ago, st dan said:

I know there are many factors in play (the main one being how effective the vaccines are in reducing hospital admissions and deaths), but on the face of it, the logic to remove all restrictions right as we are seeing case numbers rocket is a puzzling one to get your head around isn’t it? If you’re applying logic and common sense. 

It's herd immunity isn't it? Pretty explicit, I thought. Witty thinks that restricting cases now is mainly just going to delay them until the winter, when the severity would be worse. So the hope is for people to get mildly ill now, bolstering immunity for the winter.

I'm not qualified to say whether that's a good idea or not.

[Guest]

Vaccination update:

[balthazarstarbuck]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

It's herd immunity isn't it? Pretty explicit, I thought. Witty thinks that restricting cases now is mainly just going to delay them until the winter, when the severity would be worse. So the hope is for people to get mildly ill now, bolstering immunity for the winter.

I'm not qualified to say whether that's a good idea or not.

Only thing that doesn’t make sense to me with that is if that’s the case, why send whole classes home? Why tell people to isolate? If you want people to get it, you’d let them get it surely?

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

The govt must have seen models where keeps going up until early/mid August...hence the Javid 100k/day thing the other day...which was just preparing us for what may be on it's way...at the same time these models can be wrong of course and maybe we'll peak at about 50k/day...

Yeah its a worse case scenario and they will also be making sure people are prepared for those numbers in case they do happen... They may well not get that far. The data is mixed at the moment and hard to say. 

[andyrhodes24]

7 minutes ago, st dan said:

I know there are many factors in play (the main one being how effective the vaccines are in reducing hospital admissions and deaths), but on the face of it, the logic to remove all restrictions right as we are seeing case numbers rocket is a puzzling one to get your head around isn’t it? If you’re applying logic and common sense. 

Removing all restrictions like this is what a lot people on this thread and beyond have been asking for for a while but you can definitely sense that some are getting a bit twitchy now reading around, and you can't blame them with case numbers this high. We always knew there'd be an exit wave but even still, you have to admit it's a little bit risky

[Fuzzy Afro]

10 minutes ago, st dan said:

I know there are many factors in play (the main one being how effective the vaccines are in reducing hospital admissions and deaths), but on the face of it, the logic to remove all restrictions right as we are seeing case numbers rocket is a puzzling one to get your head around isn’t it? If you’re applying logic and common sense. 

Cases are surging under the current restrictions, therefore it makes absolutely zero sense to either:

 

- Maintain the current restrictions for longer

- Soften but not remove them (e.g. keeping face coverings on public transport)

 

 

The choices the government have is to either suppress the Delta wave by reimposing lockdown type restrictions or just let the virus rip and go for herd immunity. The latter has been chosen. 

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I guess we'll probably be over 50k/day by 19th July...?

Potentially we could be yeah, the increases in cases isn’t ideal especially ahead of step 4 in 2 weeks time. I guess we just have to hope we see declines soon. 

[Guest]