When will this shit end?

[FakeEmpire]

2 minutes ago, st dan said:

I know there are many factors in play (the main one being how effective the vaccines are in reducing hospital admissions and deaths), but on the face of it, the logic to remove all restrictions right as we are seeing case numbers rocket is a puzzling one to get your head around isn’t it? If you’re applying logic and common sense. 

I think we just want to bury our heads in the sand at this point. We know Johnon's fucked it again but also there cannot be many people who can cope with these restrictions for much longer. Just want my friends or family in one room again. 

[Havors]

11 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I guess we'll probably be over 50k/day by 19th July...?

Could do. I keep seeing data that suggests we peaked with cases by specimen date and that the curve is flattening like the following.... I guess we just have to hope we are about to peak if we have not already. 

 

 

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, st dan said:

I know there are many factors in play (the main one being how effective the vaccines are in reducing hospital admissions and deaths), but on the face of it, the logic to remove all restrictions right as we are seeing case numbers rocket is a puzzling one to get your head around isn’t it? If you’re applying logic and common sense. 

we're lab rats. It's a massive risky test of the efficacy of the vaccines...and will likely be the blueprint for Europe and elsewhere later in the year.

[Ryan1984]

2 minutes ago, FakeEmpire said:

I think we just want to bury our heads in the sand at this point. We know Johnon's fucked it again but also there cannot be many people who can cope with these restrictions for much longer. Just want my friends or family in one room again. 

Johnson wants his six-week holiday. By the times he’s back, the cases might have plateaued a little..?

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Havors said:

Could do. I keep seeing data that suggests we peaked with cases by specimen date and that the curve is flattening like the following.... I guess we just have to hope we are about to peak if we have not already. 

 

 

The govt must have seen models where keeps going up until early/mid August...hence the Javid 100k/day thing the other day...which was just preparing us for what may be on it's way...at the same time these models can be wrong of course and maybe we'll peak at about 50k/day...

[dingbat2]

[stuartbert two hats]

7 minutes ago, st dan said:

I know there are many factors in play (the main one being how effective the vaccines are in reducing hospital admissions and deaths), but on the face of it, the logic to remove all restrictions right as we are seeing case numbers rocket is a puzzling one to get your head around isn’t it? If you’re applying logic and common sense. 

It's herd immunity isn't it? Pretty explicit, I thought. Witty thinks that restricting cases now is mainly just going to delay them until the winter, when the severity would be worse. So the hope is for people to get mildly ill now, bolstering immunity for the winter.

I'm not qualified to say whether that's a good idea or not.

[Ozanne]

Vaccination update:

[balthazarstarbuck]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

It's herd immunity isn't it? Pretty explicit, I thought. Witty thinks that restricting cases now is mainly just going to delay them until the winter, when the severity would be worse. So the hope is for people to get mildly ill now, bolstering immunity for the winter.

I'm not qualified to say whether that's a good idea or not.

Only thing that doesn’t make sense to me with that is if that’s the case, why send whole classes home? Why tell people to isolate? If you want people to get it, you’d let them get it surely?

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

The govt must have seen models where keeps going up until early/mid August...hence the Javid 100k/day thing the other day...which was just preparing us for what may be on it's way...at the same time these models can be wrong of course and maybe we'll peak at about 50k/day...

Yeah its a worse case scenario and they will also be making sure people are prepared for those numbers in case they do happen... They may well not get that far. The data is mixed at the moment and hard to say. 

[andyrhodes24]

7 minutes ago, st dan said:

I know there are many factors in play (the main one being how effective the vaccines are in reducing hospital admissions and deaths), but on the face of it, the logic to remove all restrictions right as we are seeing case numbers rocket is a puzzling one to get your head around isn’t it? If you’re applying logic and common sense. 

Removing all restrictions like this is what a lot people on this thread and beyond have been asking for for a while but you can definitely sense that some are getting a bit twitchy now reading around, and you can't blame them with case numbers this high. We always knew there'd be an exit wave but even still, you have to admit it's a little bit risky

[Fuzzy Afro]

10 minutes ago, st dan said:

I know there are many factors in play (the main one being how effective the vaccines are in reducing hospital admissions and deaths), but on the face of it, the logic to remove all restrictions right as we are seeing case numbers rocket is a puzzling one to get your head around isn’t it? If you’re applying logic and common sense. 

Cases are surging under the current restrictions, therefore it makes absolutely zero sense to either:

 

- Maintain the current restrictions for longer

- Soften but not remove them (e.g. keeping face coverings on public transport)

 

 

The choices the government have is to either suppress the Delta wave by reimposing lockdown type restrictions or just let the virus rip and go for herd immunity. The latter has been chosen. 

[Ozanne]

20 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I guess we'll probably be over 50k/day by 19th July...?

Potentially we could be yeah, the increases in cases isn’t ideal especially ahead of step 4 in 2 weeks time. I guess we just have to hope we see declines soon. 

[Ozanne]

 

[Havors]

5 minutes ago, dingbat2 said:

Does this imply a reduction in growth rate again? There are that many graphs its hard to keep track of which one is for which haha 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Cases are surging under the current restrictions, therefore it makes absolutely zero sense to either:

 

- Maintain the current restrictions for longer

- Soften but not remove them (e.g. keeping face coverings on public transport)

 

 

The choices the government have is to either suppress the Delta wave by reimposing lockdown type restrictions or just let the virus rip and go for herd immunity. The latter has been chosen. 

why can't you have somewhere inbetween...which is what we have had for the majority of the last year?

[zahidf]

20 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

Obviously the govt and boffins want the opton to lock us up again. Be interesting if people will listen post second jab, if covid deaths go down and there isnt furlough. Will people be willing to stay at home over Xmas just for NHS capcaity over flu?

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

why can't you have somewhere inbetween...which is what we have had for the majority of the last year?

because enough is enough. 

 

( And cases wont go down without another lockdown)

Edited July 7, 2021 by zahidf

[stuartbert two hats]

6 minutes ago, balthazarstarbuck said:

Only thing that doesn’t make sense to me with that is if that’s the case, why send whole classes home? Why tell people to isolate? If you want people to get it, you’d let them get it surely?

I guess they don't want it to be too fast. And maybe it's politically difficult to remove those restrictions when you're hitting an unvaccinated group (I.e. children), even if they do have good natural immunity.

I think it's also simply becoming politically difficult. There are plenty of people saying "enough is enough" and aren't really concerned with an optimal COVID disease outcome, they just want to get on with a post-restrictions life.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

because enough is enough. 

 

( And cases wont go down without another lockdown)

yes, but they might not get so high either?

I'm not arguing for restrictions...well, I don't think I am...it's just Fuzzy was implying the choice was either full lockdown or full reopening and nothing inbetween was possible...?

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I guess they don't want it to be too fast. And maybe it's politically difficult to remove those restrictions when you're hitting an unvaccinated group (I.e. children), even if they do have good natural immunity.

I think it's also simply becoming politically difficult. There are plenty of people saying "enough is enough" and aren't really concerned with an optimal COVID disease outcome, they just want to get on with a post-restrictions life.

Its Hybrid immunity according to the Standard: a mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated getting it will make the peak earlier in August and get cases down sooner

[stuartbert two hats]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

because enough is enough. 

 

( And cases wont go down without another lockdown)

Depends what you mean by lockdown. They may well go down if we shut hospitality and schools, but kept everything else open. Not that I'm actually advocating that.

[zahidf]

Just now, steviewevie said:

yes, but they might not get so high either?

I'm not arguing for restrictions...well, I don't think I am...it's just Fuzzy was implying the choice was either full lockdown or full reopening and nothing inbetween was possible...?

But then if its still high ( which it will be under current restrictions) when will there be the political will to remove the rest of the restrictions? over the winter? when schools come back?

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Depends what you mean by lockdown. They may well go down if we shut hospitality and schools, but kept everything else open. Not that I'm actually advocating that.

School holidays will shut the schools in a couple of weeks. fingers crossed that will work to get numbers down!

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Obviously the govt and boffins want the opton to lock us up again. Be interesting if people will listen post second jab, if covid deaths go down and there isnt furlough. Will people be willing to stay at home over Xmas just for NHS capcaity over flu?

we'll see...Whitty was suggesting they're worried winter could be pretty bad...can't imagine it will be anything like full lockdown or situation we were in last christmas, but they might want to try and stop various viruses spreading if looking dicey.