When will this shit end?

[JoeyT]

4 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

Does anyone else feel nervous that surging cases in Europe may delay our roadmap? I’m not asking whether they SHOULD, just whether it will? 

Isn’t it the variant which originated here which is doing the damage?

I’d hope that with the no international travel rule bar essential and quarantine rules / testing we would be able to avoid surging cases but who knows I suppose.

I think our strong vaccination programme has got us in good stead which is obviously something those countries having issues now have struggled with.

All in all, no I don’t think it will delay the unlocking.

[hodgey123]

2 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Isn’t it the variant which originated here which is doing the damage?

I’d hope that with the no international travel rule bar essential and quarantine rules / testing we would be able to avoid surging cases but who knows I suppose.

I think our strong vaccination programme has got us in good stead which is obviously something those countries having issues now have struggled with.

All in all, no I don’t think it will delay the unlocking.

I think so in France, but the SA variant % is up to 5-10% which is a lot higher than it was here. Even so, the vaccines protect against hospitalisation/death from this variant so hopefully should not affect the roadmap but I have a nagging feeling that it may. 

[efcfanwirral]

19 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

Does anyone else feel nervous that surging cases in Europe may delay our roadmap? I’m not asking whether they SHOULD, just whether it will? 

Boris said it a few days ago about us following them, scientists said it today. I've always thought our roadmap is heavily exaggerated - yes it think it will delay it, but I also think that was always the plan, but hope keeps people compliant (behavioural scientists). All this EU stuff shows its not just about us, there's variants, there's people who the vaccine won't work for and when winter hits there is a huge pressure on our very underfunded and fragile NHS. We may get a month or two August and September but I wouldn't be expecting full, forever normality 

This isn't what i think should happen, just what i think will. Furlough is extended, covid act will be extended to September (which means for 12 months as it will be needed for winter surges). Look at their actions not words. Not saying it's a conspiracy to lock us down, but just what the scientists will be saying should happen. But we need to avoid unrest and keep people behaving.

Edited March 19, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[dingbat2]

36 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

Does anyone else feel nervous that surging cases in Europe may delay our roadmap? I’m not asking whether they SHOULD, just whether it will? 

Not really, I think our approach to lockdowns and more importantly the timing and tests needed to come out of each stage of lockdown are very sensible and very prudent. 5 weeks between each relaxation of restrictions means they can assess the impact of each relaxation before the next kicks in, and they can put the brakes back on if necessary. And with the added advantage that we are doing so well with the vaccination programme means the impact on the NHS shouldnt be quite as bad as it could have been of cases do head upwards. Still need to push to get everyone vaccinated ASAP though so waves become less likely and the impact of each is reduced

 

[hodgey123]

33 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Boris said it a few days ago about us following them, scientists said it today. I've always thought our roadmap is heavily exaggerated - yes it think it will delay it, but I also think that was always the plan, but hope keeps people compliant (behavioural scientists). All this EU stuff shows its not just about us, there's variants, there's people who the vaccine won't work for and when winter hits there is a huge pressure on our very underfunded and fragile NHS. We may get a month or two August and September but I wouldn't be expecting full, forever normality 

This isn't what i think should happen, just what i think will. Furlough is extended, covid act will be extended to September (which means for 12 months as it will be needed for winter surges). Look at their actions not words. Not saying it's a conspiracy to lock us down, but just what the scientists will be saying should happen. But we need to avoid unrest and keep people behaving.

I can’t agree with the roadmap being exaggerated - if anything, recent decreases in all metrics show it is the opposite. Maybe Europe are now going through what we did at the end of 2020 and Q1 2021 just a few months late.

[dingbat2]

33 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Boris said it a few days ago about us following them, scientists said it today. I've always thought our roadmap is heavily exaggerated - yes it think it will delay it, but I also think that was always the plan, but hope keeps people compliant (behavioural scientists). All this EU stuff shows its not just about us, there's variants, there's people who the vaccine won't work for and when winter hits there is a huge pressure on our very underfunded and fragile NHS. We may get a month or two August and September but I wouldn't be expecting full, forever normality 

This isn't what i think should happen, just what i think will. Furlough is extended, covid act will be extended to September (which means for 12 months as it will be needed for winter surges). Look at their actions not words. Not saying it's a conspiracy to lock us down, but just what the scientists will be saying should happen. But we need to avoid unrest and keep people behaving.

But won't the people for whom the vaccination won't ever work be OK though because they won't be exposed to the virus because the people who are vaccinated won't be spreading it to them. So the virus, in its current form just slowly fizzles away, assuming there aren't any new vaccine resistant variants? So they become just as protected in the end?

[hodgey123]

3 minutes ago, dingbat2 said:

But won't the people for whom the vaccination won't ever work be OK though because they won't be exposed to the virus because the people who are vaccinated won't be spreading it to them. So the virus, in its current form just slowly fizzles away, assuming there aren't any new vaccine resistant variants? So they become just as protected in the end?

Yeah. Good old fashioned herd immunity that is. But it may take a bit longer to get there for them than 21 June. 

[dingbat2]

Our biggest risk now must be importing new resitant variants from abroad. I think we will be OK with the current known variants circulating here, we just don't want any curve balls coming to uk now from overseas 

[stuartbert two hats]

12 minutes ago, dingbat2 said:

Our biggest risk now must be importing new resitant variants from abroad. I think we will be OK with the current known variants circulating here, we just don't want any curve balls coming to uk now from overseas 

Once most of the UK population is protected from disease, we'll understand the phrase "none of us are safe until all of us are safe"

Don't get me wrong, life in this country is about to return to something approaching normality, but for things to really get back to normal, we need to vaccinate the world.

[steviewevie]

Brazil is in a really bad way. Nightmare.

[Ryan1984]

30 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

I can’t agree with the roadmap being exaggerated - if anything, recent decreases in all metrics show it is the opposite. Maybe Europe are now going through what we did at the end of 2020 and Q1 2021 just a few months late.

This could be bollocks but would it make sense it became so dominant because it originated here? Now it’s had time to build up its strength etc over on the continent?

[zahidf]

11 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Once most of the UK population is protected from disease, we'll understand the phrase "none of us are safe until all of us are safe"

Don't get me wrong, life in this country is about to return to something approaching normality, but for things to really get back to normal, we need to vaccinate the world.

Might help if some of the rest of the world weren't on the virus's side 

[zahidf]

Oh well so much for solidarity. 

 

[hodgey123]

7 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

This could be bollocks but would it make sense it became so dominant because it originated here? Now it’s had time to build up its strength etc over on the continent?

It does make sense - if we had a higher base level of the variant (it was the UK variant after all) then it was going to run wild and take over. That is what is happening now in Europe.  

[Leyrulion]

1 hour ago, efcfanwirral said:

We may get a month or two August and September but I wouldn't be expecting full, forever normality 

Chris Whitty has said this is the likely scenario. 

I think it highly possible that next winter will be worse then a very bad flu season, but nowhere near as bad as what we've just had. 

Then it will depend on how much we as a society are willing to accept that which will set how many restrictions we have, if any. 

I think mass events this coming winter are probably fairly uncertain.

[efcfanwirral]

3 hours ago, zahidf said:

Might help if some of the rest of the world weren't on the virus's side 

That is the perfect example between a grown up newspaper talking about an issue sensibly and a ridiculous rag that pretty much sums up the state of our joke of a country. The media in this country is not remotely normal.

Edited March 20, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[zahidf]

4 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

That is the perfect example between a grown up newspaper talking about an issue sensibly and a ridiculous rag that pretty much sums up the state of our joke of a country. The media in this country is not remotely normal.

The telegraph isn't THAT bad

[CaledonianGonzo]

Yes it is

[zahidf]

Stupid France

Boffins trying to cancel brits summer holidays

 

[March Hare]

2 hours ago, zahidf said:

The telegraph isn't THAT bad

 

1 hour ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

Yes it is

Yes it is.  It’s also got an elitist southern bias in its reporting that is toxic.  For example, when there are fans in, compare the reporting at Cheltenham and Aintree for horse racing. One is presented as all glamour and the other as trashy pissed northerners making a fool of themselves. The Telegraph is a disgrace.

[steviewevie]

Wouldn't even wipe my bum with the Telegraph.

[steviewevie]

9 hours ago, zahidf said:

Oh well so much for solidarity. 

 

well, they haven't got enough vaccines for the EU, so Germany getting some sputniks will help distribution of rest of vaccines round EU.

I wonder if people more happy to take Russian vaccine than the AZ one?

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

well, they haven't got enough vaccines for the EU, so Germany getting some sputniks will help distribution of rest of vaccines round EU.

I wonder if people more happy to take Russian vaccine than the AZ one?

It hasn't been authorised by the EMA yet... it may well be good (especially since the rumours the ruskies stole it from Oxford) but it seems ridiculous they have millions of Oxford doses sitting in the fridge they are faffing around with when that IS authorised.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

It hasn't been authorised by the EMA yet... it may well be good (especially since the rumours the ruskies stole it from Oxford) but it seems ridiculous they have millions of Oxford doses sitting in the fridge they are faffing around with when that IS authorised.

these lot seem happy....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/19/its-a-good-day-enthusiasm-in-berlin-as-astrazeneca-covid-jabs-resume

[MEGABOWL]

11 hours ago, hodgey123 said:

Does anyone else feel nervous that surging cases in Europe may delay our roadmap? I’m not asking whether they SHOULD, just whether it will? 

No. They’re just where we were three months ago. By June things will have calmed down there and hopefully they’ll have got their Vaccine program up to speed.

If anything a bit of fear-spreading might help people stay within the rules here.